Gresham "Group 150" - August 2010

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Gresham "Group 150" - August 2010

  1. 1. AUGUST 2010 Group 150 August 2010 Darren Martin Gresham Advisory Partners dmartin@gresham.com.au +61 8 9486 7077 +61 412 144 719 ASX RESOURCES - GROUP 150 We are pleased to present the August edition of ‘Group 150’, a ranking of the top 150 ASX listed resources companies (excluding oil and gas), by market capitalisation. During July, the RSPT went AWOL (much to the delight of a number of miners) and the MRRT was born (much to the despair of a (smaller) number of miners). In this edition of the Group 150, we have updated the “RSPT-impact” chart from the May edition to test once more the hypothesis that international focussed companies are outperforming their domestic peers. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed RSPT was announced has declined 3.8% (vs 13.6% and 12.2% at end of June and May respectively). International focused companies increased 3.9% (vs a decline of 1.1 and 0.9% at end of June and May respectively). Separately, we have introduced the “MRRT-impact” chart, to assess the impact on the market capitalisation of the Group 150 since the announcement of the proposed MRRT. The market value of the domestic focussed companies has increased on average 15.4% versus the international focussed companies only 7.6%, recapturing some of the ground lost during the 2 months the RSPT was on the table. Both charts affirm industry views that the MRRT is continuing to have negative impact on resource sector valuations. The market value of the Group 150 at the end of July was $494 billion, up 5.8% from June. The entry point into the Group 150 for July was $77.0 million versus $65.6 million for June. The ASX/S&P 200 Resources Index rose 4.6% in the month, while the ASX All Ordinaries and ASX/S&P 200 Index increased 4.2% and 4.5% respectively. While commentators continue to assess the influence of China on the global economy, two events during the month support the overriding impact China holds in determining economic prosperity. First, the strategic importance of rare earths has once again become a focus as the China Ministry of Commerce announced rare earths export quotas for the second half of 2010, representing a 70% reduction in volumes available for users outside of China. Additionally, the authorities announced that rare earth prices would be set and published by the central government on a monthly basis. ASX listed Arafura, Alkane and Lynas increased 69.0%, 51.1% and 39.4% respectively during July. Second, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that based on preliminary data China has now overtaken the United States to become the world’s largest energy consumer. China’s power consumption rose 14.14% year-on-year to 352 billion kilowatt-hours in June and consumption in the first half year reached 2.01 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 21.57% on a year-on-year basis. Since 2000, China’s energy demand has doubled, yet is only around one-third of the OECD average on a per capita basis. These developments point to continued growth in demand for energy commodities (oil, coal, uranium and natural gas) from the most populous nation on the planet. Notably, in mid-July Bloomberg reported that China has commenced purchasing yellowcake at the rate of about 5,000 tonnes per annum, roughly double current consumption. Several uranium focussed companies are among the biggest movers in the Group 150 this month, including Energy and Minerals - 104.5% and Deep Yellow – 57.7%. We start this month at Diggers and Dealers, which will provide a barometer for current market sentiment.....see you there! Gresham Advisory Partners Limited Gresham Advisory Partners is a leading Australian mergers and acquisitions/corporate advisory Edition 5 business and one of Australia’s largest and highest ranking independent corporate advisors. 1
  2. 2. Group 150 Top 150 ASX LiSTed reSource compAnieS - JuLy By Market Capitalisation Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Jul Jun Company 31-Jul-10 30-Jun-10 Change Jul Jun Company 31-Jul-10 30-Jun-10 Change 1 1 BHP Billiton Ltd. (ASX:BHP) $223,280.7 $209,534.4 6.6% 51 52 Panoramic Resources Ltd. (ASX:PAN) $504.9 $447.5 12.8% 2 2 Rio Tinto Ltd. (ASX:RIO) $138,516.1 $130,766.4 5.9% 52 47 Mineral Deposits Ltd. (ASX:MDL) $447.0 $545.7 (18.1%) 3 3 Newcrest Mining Ltd. (ASX:NCM) $15,815.3 $16,970.6 (6.8%) 53 56 Northern Iron Limited (ASX:NFE) $444.2 $400.3 11.0% 4 4 Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (ASX:FMG) $13,331.1 $12,801.2 4.1% 54 53 Brockman Resources Limited (ASX:BRM) $438.6 $421.6 4.0% 5 5 Lihir Gold Limited (ASX:LGL) $9,640.7 $10,209.2 (5.6%) 55 64 Kagara Ltd (ASX:KZL) $438.4 $327.1 34.0% 6 6 Coal & Allied Industries Ltd. (ASX:CNA) $8,398.7 $8,052.4 4.3% 56 63 Giralia Resources NL (ASX:GIR) $429.7 $329.9 30.3% 7 8 New Hope Corp. Ltd. (ASX:NHC) $3,898.6 $3,658.6 6.6% 57 58 Mincor Resources NL (ASX:MCR) $396.4 $363.3 9.1% 8 11 OZ Minerals Limited (ASX:OZL) $3,838.8 $2,996.2 28.1% 58 59 Regis Resources Limited (ASX:RRL) $393.7 $353.3 11.4% 9 7 Alumina Ltd. (ASX:AWC) $3,782.3 $3,721.3 1.6% 59 61 Sundance Resources Ltd. (ASX:SDL) $392.9 $352.3 11.5% 10 10 Equinox Minerals Ltd. (ASX:EQN) $3,567.0 $3,014.5 18.3% 60 62 Straits Resources Ltd. (ASX:SRL) $362.4 $333.0 8.8% 11 9 MacArthur Coal Ltd. (ASX:MCC) $3,320.4 $3,082.5 7.7% 61 68 Bougainville Copper Ltd. (ASX:BOC) $344.9 $274.7 25.6% 12 13 Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) $2,761.0 $2,574.5 7.2% 62 50 Indophil Resources NL (ASX:IRN) $336.6 $463.7 (27.4%) 13 16 Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX:WHC) $2,675.6 $2,369.5 12.9% 63 57 Allied Gold Ltd. (ASX:ALD) $332.8 $374.4 (11.1%) 14 14 Energy Resources of Australia Ltd. (ASX:ERA) $2,628.4 $2,536.8 3.6% 64 60 NKWE Platinum Ltd. (ASX:NKP) $325.3 $353.2 (7.9%) 15 15 Aquila Resources Ltd. (ASX:AQA) $2,384.8 $2,533.1 (5.9%) 65 65 Silver Lake Resources Limited (ASX:SLR) $319.6 $313.8 1.8% 16 19 Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (ASX:CEY) $2,362.3 $1,765.6 33.8% 66 55 Resolute Mining Ltd. (ASX:RSG) $304.3 $414.2 (26.5%) 17 18 Iluka Resources Ltd. (ASX:ILU) $2,292.4 $1,938.1 18.3% 67 66 Coalspur Mines Limited (ASX:CPL) $290.8 $304.5 (4.5%) 18 12 Aquarius Platinum Ltd. (ASX:AQP) $2,195.0 $2,736.8 (19.8%) 68 82 Aditya Birla Minerals Limited (ASX:ABY) $278.9 $203.7 36.9% 19 17 Riversdale Mining Ltd. (ASX:RIV) $2,047.2 $2,111.3 (3.0%) 69 73 Cockatoo Coal Limited (ASX:COK) $277.2 $235.0 18.0% 20 20 Mount Gibson Iron Ltd. (ASX:MGX) $1,792.1 $1,672.7 7.1% 70 80 Sphere Minerals Limited (ASX:SPH) $272.4 $207.3 31.4% 21 21 Andean Resources Ltd. (ASX:AND) $1,744.1 $1,587.5 9.9% 71 87 Moly Mines Ltd. (ASX:MOL) $265.7 $192.9 37.7% 22 23 PanAust Limited (ASX:PNA) $1,683.7 $1,462.2 15.1% 72 75 Integra Mining Ltd. (ASX:IGR) $260.8 $226.8 15.0% 23 22 Extract Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXT) $1,627.4 $1,580.5 3.0% 73 70 CBH Resources Ltd. (ASX:CBH) $258.7 $257.7 0.4% 24 29 Lynas Corp. Ltd. (ASX:LYC) $1,257.8 $902.0 39.4% 74 77 Intrepid Mines Limited (ASX:IAU) $257.9 $216.9 18.9% 25 24 Zimplats Holdings Ltd. (ASX:ZIM) $1,076.4 $1,130.2 (4.8%) 75 69 Catalpa Resources Limited (ASX:CAH) $247.4 $263.1 (6.0%) 26 25 Gloucester Coal Ltd. (ASX:GCL) $1,020.4 $1,018.0 0.2% 76 81 Discovery Metals Ltd. (ASX:DML) $244.6 $204.7 19.5% 27 28 Kingsgate Consolidated Limited (ASX:KCN) $982.9 $947.0 3.8% 77 78 Platinum Australia Limited (ASX:PLA) $239.2 $216.6 10.4% 28 34 Minara Resources Ltd. (ASX:MRE) $957.8 $770.7 24.3% 78 71 Ampella Mining Limited (ASX:AMX) $238.8 $252.5 (5.4%) 29 26 Atlas Iron Limited (ASX:AGO) $952.3 $999.5 (4.7%) 79 98 Deep Yellow Ltd. (ASX:DYL) $230.8 $146.4 57.7% 30 30 Ivanhoe Australia Limited (ASX:IVA) $950.1 $901.9 5.3% 80 67 Dominion Mining Limited (ASX:DOM) $229.4 $282.1 (18.7%) 31 27 Perseus Mining Ltd. (ASX:PRU) $877.1 $960.1 (8.6%) 81 84 Perilya Ltd. (ASX:PEM) $228.2 $199.3 14.5% 32 42 Western Areas NL (ASX:WSA) $873.0 $679.4 28.5% 82 83 Cape Lambert Resources Limited (ASX:CFE) $225.3 $203.4 10.8% 33 38 Gindalbie Metals Ltd. (ASX:GBG) $824.0 $732.6 12.5% 83 72 Kingsrose Mining Limited (ASX:KRM) $220.1 $249.9 (11.9%) 34 31 Murchison Metals Limited (ASX:MMX) $796.8 $875.1 (8.9%) 84 89 Galaxy Resources (ASX:GXY) $220.1 $178.2 23.5% 35 35 Mirabela Nickel Ltd. (ASX:MBN) $782.1 $749.0 4.4% 85 79 Troy Resources NL (ASX:TRY) $219.6 $215.2 2.0% 36 37 White Energy Company Limited (ASX:WEC) $781.3 $738.7 5.8% 86 102 Rex Minerals Limited. (ASX:RXM) $218.5 $143.0 52.8% 37 32 Avoca Resources Ltd. (ASX:AVO) $762.7 $794.8 (4.0%) 87 74 Gold One International Limited (ASX:GDO) $217.7 $229.7 (5.2%) 38 39 Medusa Mining Limited (ASX:MML) $727.8 $731.6 (0.5%) 88 76 Bandanna Energy Limited (ASX:BND) $214.4 $218.1 (1.7%) 39 44 Citadel Resource Group Limited (ASX:CGG) $710.1 $617.0 15.1% 89 88 Sylvania Resources Ltd. (ASX:SLV) $211.5 $187.2 13.0% 40 36 CGA Mining Limited (ASX:CGX) $705.7 $738.8 (4.5%) 90 113 Arafura Resources Limited (ASX:ARU) $206.4 $122.1 69.0% 41 40 OM Holdings Limited (ASX:OMH) $702.9 $730.3 (3.8%) 91 92 Saracen Mineral Holdings Limited (ASX:SAR) $193.0 $161.6 19.4% 42 33 OceanaGold Corporation (ASX:OGC) $652.6 $794.1 (17.8%) 92 108 Metals X Limited (ASX:MLX) $191.2 $131.1 45.8% 43 46 Grange Resources Limited (ASX:GRR) $645.0 $575.9 12.0% 93 85 Adamus Resources Ltd. (ASX:ADU) $191.1 $199.0 (4.0%) 44 49 Independence Gold NL (ASX:IGO) $637.4 $537.2 18.7% 94 91 Jabiru Metals Limited (ASX:JML) $190.4 $168.4 13.1% 45 54 Sandfire Resources (ASX:SFR) $636.6 $421.2 51.1% 95 95 Orocobre Limited (ASX:ORE) $186.7 $154.8 20.6% 46 43 CuDeco Ltd. (ASX:CDU) $631.8 $640.0 (1.3%) 96 94 Flinders Mines Limited. (ASX:FMS) $182.0 $156.5 16.3% 47 48 Mantra Resources Limited (ASX:MRU) $589.9 $537.8 9.7% 97 86 Iron Ore Holdings Limited (ASX:IOH) $176.0 $193.6 (9.1%) 48 41 ST Barbara Ltd. (ASX:SBM) $586.0 $683.4 (14.3%) 98 96 Berkeley Resources Ltd. (ASX:BKY) $174.2 $153.8 13.3% 49 45 Gujarat NRE Coking Coal Limited (ASX:GNM) $551.6 $578.3 (4.6%) 99 93 FerrAus Ltd. (ASX:FRS) $168.7 $158.1 6.7% 50 51 Summit Resources Ltd. (ASX:SMM) $511.1 $450.9 13.4% 100 110 Metminco Limited. (ASX:MNC) $167.1 $126.2 32.4% Includes ASX Resource companies excluding oil and gas 2
  3. 3. AUGUST 2010 Mkt Cap (A$m) % Mkt Cap (A$m) % Jul Jun Company 31-Jul-10 30-Jun-10 Change Jul Jun Company 31-Jul-10 30-Jun-10 Change 101 104 Highlands Pacific Limited (ASX:HIG) $163.9 $140.3 16.8% 126 187 Talisman Mining Ltd (ASX:TLM) $102.2 $44.4 130.2% 102 90 Gryphon Minerals Ltd. (ASX:GRY) $158.9 $176.2 (9.8%) 127 152 Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) $101.3 $65.6 54.4% 103 116 Red 5 Ltd. (ASX:RED) $151.5 $117.3 29.2% 128 129 Terramin Australia Ltd. (ASX:TZN) $101.3 $92.2 9.9% 104 101 Hunnu Coal Limited (ASX:HUN) $151.4 $145.0 4.4% 129 127 Nyota Minerals Limited (ASX:NYO) $100.2 $93.4 7.3% 105 106 Northern Energy Corporation Ltd (ASX:NEC) $141.3 $133.6 5.8% 130 149 Thundelarra Exploration Ltd. (ASX:THX) $99.0 $67.6 46.4% 106 120 Beadell Resources Ltd (ASX:BDR) $139.9 $105.7 32.4% 131 140 Resource Generation Limited (ASX:RES) $98.6 $75.6 30.4% 107 97 BC Iron Limited (ASX:BCI) $138.0 $147.7 (6.6%) 132 119 Reed Resources Ltd. (ASX:RDR) $95.7 $106.4 (10.1%) 108 103 Mungana Goldmines Ltd (ASX:MUX) $133.5 $141.3 (5.5%) 133 125 Bendigo Mining Ltd. (ASX:BDG) $94.3 $96.5 (2.3%) 109 111 Hillgrove Resources Ltd. (ASX:HGO) $132.7 $125.2 6.0% 134 138 Jupiter Mines Ltd. (ASX:JMS) $92.4 $79.5 16.2% 110 121 Golden West Resources Limited (ASX:GWR) $131.7 $103.0 27.9% 135 122 Morning Star Gold NL (ASX:MCO) $92.1 $98.4 (6.4%) 111 105 Aurox Resources Ltd. (ASX:AXO) $129.4 $136.3 (5.1%) 136 139 Exco Resources Ltd. (ASX:EXS) $92.0 $78.9 16.6% 112 112 Red Hill Iron Ltd (ASX:RHI) $129.1 $123.0 5.0% 137 135 Magma Metals Ltd. (ASX:MMW) $91.9 $82.2 11.8% 113 99 Focus Minerals Limited (ASX:FML) $128.9 $146.0 (11.7%) 138 141 Western Plains Resources Limited (ASX:WPG) $91.3 $74.2 23.0% 114 114 Nucoal Resources NL (ASX:NCR) $126.1 $120.3 4.8% 139 184 Energy and Minerals Australia Ltd (ASX:EMA) $91.2 $44.6 104.5% 115 123 Tiger Resources Ltd. (ASX:TGS) $125.2 $97.7 28.1% 140 165 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) $88.4 $58.5 51.1% 116 109 Ramelius Resources Ltd. (ASX:RMS) $125.1 $129.5 (3.4%) 141 144 Chalice Gold Mines Ltd. (ASX:CHN) $86.9 $70.6 23.1% 117 115 Astron Ltd. (ASX:ATR) $122.0 $118.8 2.7% 142 134 Robust Resources Limited (ASX:ROL) $85.2 $82.6 3.1% 118 118 Norton Gold Fields Limited (ASX:NGF) $118.9 $106.4 11.7% 143 0 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) $84.6 - - 119 117 Conquest Mining Limited (ASX:CQT) $118.3 $116.5 1.5% 144 136 Citigold Corporation Limited (ASX:CTO) $83.6 $81.8 2.2% 120 107 Centrex Metals Limited (ASX:CXM) $117.9 $131.8 (10.5%) 145 162 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) $81.1 $60.6 33.8% 121 124 Alliance Resources Ltd. (ASX:AGS) $117.7 $97.2 21.1% 146 221 Aussie Q Resources Limited (ASX:AQR) $79.2 $35.4 123.7% 122 126 IMX Resources Ltd. (ASX:IXR) $113.2 $93.4 21.2% 147 131 Azumah Resources Ltd (ASX:AZM) $78.3 $87.9 (10.9%) 123 132 Kangaroo Resources Limited (ASX:KRL) $113.2 $85.5 32.4% 148 155 Strike Resources Limited (ASX:SRK) $78.0 $63.7 22.4% 124 128 Australasian Resources Ltd (ASX:ARH) $108.3 $92.8 16.7% 149 167 Bannerman Resources Limited (ASX:BMN) $77.8 $53.5 45.4% 125 130 Greenland Minerals and Energy Ltd (ASX:GGG) $106.2 $88.3 20.3% 150 156 North Australian Diamonds Limited (ASX:NAD) $77.0 $63.0 22.2% Source: Capital IQ new enTrAnTS - JuLy eXiTS - JuLy 126 Talisman Mining Ltd (ASX:TLM) Apex Minerals NL (ASX:AXM) 127 Toro Energy Ltd (ASX:TOE) Sihayo Gold Limited (ASX:SIH) 139 Energy and Minerals Australia Limited (ASX:EMA) Dragon Mining Limited (ASX:DRA) 140 Alkane Resources Limited (ASX:ALK) Noble Mineral Resources Ltd. (ASX:NMG) 143 Guildford Coal Limited (ASX:GUF) Vantage Goldfields Limited (ASX:VGO) 145 Stanmore Coal Limited (ASX:SMR) Navigator Resources Ltd. (ASX:NAV) 146 Aussie Q Resources Limited (ASX:AQR) Crescent Gold Limited (ASX:CRE) 148 Strike Resources Limited (ASX:SRK) Tanami Gold NL (ASX:TAM) 149 Bannerman Resources Limited (ASX:BMN) Westgold Resources Limited (ASX:WGR) 150 North Australian Diamonds Limited (ASX:NAD) Forte Energy NL (ASX:FTE) Based on market capitalisation as at 31 July 2010 vs 30 June 2010 Group 150 LeAderS And LAGGerS - mArkeT cApiTALiSATion performAnce - JuLy Leaders Laggers * Included placement, acquisition and/or material option conversion during month 3
  4. 4. Group 150 Group 150 mArkeT cApiTALiSATion ASX indeX performAnce - JuLy Group 150 SecTor mArkeT cApiTALiSATion - JuLy Market Capitalisation (A$b) merGer & AcquiSiTionS - Announced in JuLy Percent Premium - Premium - Date Value Consideration Target Acquirer Sought 1 Day Prior 1 Month Prior Announced (A$m) Offered (%) (%) (%) 22-Jul-2010 BCD Resources NL (ASX:BCD) Bendigo Mining Ltd. (ASX:BDG) 61.4 100.0 44.0 20.0 Equity 21-Jul-2010 NGM Resources Ltd. (ASX:NGM) Paladin Energy, Ltd. (ASX:PDN) 21.0 77.5 61.07 64.61 Equity 8-Jul-2010 Padbury Mining Limited (ASX:PDY) Fe Limited (ASX:FEL) 23.6 100.0 44.23 8.18 Combinations 5-Jul-2010 Centennial Coal Co. Ltd. (ASX:CEY) Banpu Minerals (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. 2,268.3 80.11 40.27 42.2 Cash 5-Jul-2010 North Queensland Metals Ltd (ASX:NQM) Heemskirk Consolidated Ltd. (ASX:HSK) 84.0 100.0 56.0 43.8 Equity Source: Capital IQ Announced Australian Resources (excluding oil and gas) Mergers and Acquisitions >A$10m 4
  5. 5. AUGUST 2010 Group 150 - “rSpT impAcT” - BASed on proJecT/S LocATion Following the demise of the RSPT, we have updated the “RSPT-Impact” chart to assess the rebound impact on domestic focussed miners. Separately on page 6, we commenced tracking the “MRRT-Impact”. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed RSPT was announced has declined 3.8% (vs a decline of 13.6% in June and 12.2% at end of May). International focused companies increased 3.9% (vs an increase on 1.1% in June and a decline of 0.9% at end of May). Market Capitalisation - Performance Since Proposed RSPT Announced Overseas/ Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic Total Domestic End of May Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 85 15 149 - Simple Average Return (0.9%) (12.2%) (10.0%) End of June Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 50 83 15 148 - Simple Average Return 1.1% (13.6%) (15.5%) End of July Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 83 16 148 - Simple Average Return 3.9% (3.8%) (6.9%) Only 149 companies in May data set as Vantage Goldfields was a new IPO during period, Only 148 companies in June data set as Vantage Goldfields and Mungana were new IPO’s during period, Only 148 companies in July data set as Mungana and Guildford Coal were new IPO’s during period 5
  6. 6. Group 150 Group 150 - “mrrT impAcT” - BASed on proJecT/S LocATion The “MRRT-Impact” chart below, assesses the impact on market capitalisation of the Group 150 companies since the announcement of the MRRT. A rebound in value has been witnessed by a number of domestically focussed companies who are not currently captured in the MRRT drag net. The average market value of domestic focussed companies since the proposed MRRT was announced has rebounded 15.4%, while international focussed peers increased only 7.6%. Global diversified companies have also recovered 14.3% during the same period. The bottom chart in each of the sector performance pages compares the performance of each company since the announcement of the RSPT versus the announcement of the MRRT, in most cases depicting a recapture of value. Market Capitalisation - Performance Since Proposed MRRT Announced Greater proportion of Domestic focussed companies Overseas/ Monthly Performance Overseas Domestic Total Domestic End of July Spread of "Group 150" by Project/s Location 49 84 16 149 - Simple Average Return 7.6% 15.4% 14.3% Only 149 companies in July data set as Guildford Coal was new IPO’s during period 6
  7. 7. AUGUST 2010 BASe meTALS - SecTor performAnce Share Price Performance - July 2010 Copper Nickel Zinc Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Share Price Performance RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value RSPT MRRT Share Price Performance 7
  8. 8. Group 150 coAL - SecTor performAnce Share Price Performance - July 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Share Price Performance RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value RSPT MRRT Share Price Performance 8
  9. 9. AUGUST 2010 diverSified - SecTor performAnce induSTriAL minerALS - SecTor performAnce Share Price Performance - July 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value RSPT RSPT MRRT MRRT Share Price Performance Share Price Performance 9
  10. 10. Group 150 GoLd - SecTor performAnce Share Price Performance - July 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Share Price Performance RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value RSPT MRRT Share Price Performance 10
  11. 11. AUGUST 2010 iron ore - SecTor performAnce Share Price Performance - July 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Share Price Performance RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value RSPT MRRT Share Price Performance 11
  12. 12. Group 150 urAnium - SecTor performAnce Share Price Performance - July 2010 Share Price Performance Share Price Performance - Since 1 Jan 2010 Share Price Performance RSPT vs MRRT - Change in Market Value RSPT MRRT Share Price Performance 12
  13. 13. AUGUST 2010 conSenSuS commodiTy price forecASTS - July Gold (US$/oz) Silver (US$/OZ) $2,500 $30 $2,000 $25 $18.01 $19.00 $16.45 $15.40 $16.19 $1,181 $1,224 $20 $1,500 $1,035 $989 $946 $15 $1,000 $10 $500 $5 $0 $0 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Copper (US$/lb) Nickel (US$/lb) $5.00 $16.00 $3.51 $3.80 $3.31 $3.47 $10.45 $4.00 $3.02 $12.00 $9.59 $9.50 $9.00 $8.50 $3.00 $8.00 $2.00 $1.00 $4.00 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Zinc (US$/lb) Lead (US$/lb) $2.00 $2.00 $1.50 $1.18 $1.10 $1.10 $1.50 $1.09 $1.01 $1.07 $1.00 $0.92 $0.94 $0.92 $1.00 $1.00 $0.50 $0.50 $0.00 $0.00 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Tin (US$/lb) Uranium (US$/lb) $8.85 $10.00 $100 $7.50 $7.56 $6.80 $63.25 $7.50 $75 $62.00 $57.10 $43.50 $5.00 $50 $2.50 $25 $0.00 $0 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 AUD:USD NYMEX (US$/bbl) $1.25 $200 $0.90 $0.84 $0.90 $0.84 $1.00 $0.81 $150 $87.50 $96.00 $97.63 $88.38 $0.75 $78.95 $100 $0.50 $0.25 $50 $0.00 $0 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Spot 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bloomberg Consensus Estimates - Median / High / Low 13
  14. 14. recenT reSourceS TrAnSAcTionS Group 150 Mergers and Acquisitions Mergers and Acquisitions 2010 2009 GRAM 2009 2009 2008 2008 2006 Advised BHP Advised BG Advised Guandong Advised Allied Gold Advised Kalahari Advised Gem Advised IAMGOLD Billiton on its Group on its $1bn Rising on its $216m on its $54m Minerals on its Diamonds on its Corporation on its $204m offer for takeover offer for cornerstone acquisition of $140m proposed $300m acquisition $265m acquisition United Minerals Pure Energy investment in Pan Australian merger with of Kimberley of Gallery Gold. Corporation. Resources Aust. Solomons Gold. Extract Resources. Diamonds. Limited. TakeoverDefence Takeover Defence 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 2007 2007 Advised Polaris Advised Indophil Advised Advised Energy Advised Brandrill Advised Summit Advised Tethyan on Metals NL on on $545m Centaurus Metals on its $86m Limited on its Resources on its its $220m $178m takeover recommended Resources on its proportional takeover $45m takeover A$1.2bn takeover competing takeover offer by Mineral offer from Zijin $20m merger offer by China offer by Ausdrill by Paladin Energy. offer by Crosby and Resources with Glengarry Guangdong Nuclear Limited. Antogafasta/Barrick. Limited. Resources. Power Group. Strategic Advisory, JointJoint Ventures and Capital Markets Strategic Advisory, Ventures and Capital Markets 2010 2010 2009 2008 2009/08 2008 2008 Advised BHP Introduced Advised BHP Advised Advised Iluka on its Advised Advised Iluka Billiton on its Denham Capital to Billiton on the Bannerman $114m Murchison Metals Resources on its US$116bn iron Trans Tasman disposal of the Resources on its institutional on its joint venture $54m Narama coal ore production Resources resulting Yabulu Nickel financing with placement and with Mitsubishi. divestment to joint venture with in NZ iron sands refinery. Resource Capital $353m accelerated Xstrata. Rio Tinto. investment. Funds. right issue. Gresham Advisory Partners Limited A.B.N. 97 003 344 269 Level 17, 167 Macquarie Street, Level 10, 1 Collins Street, Level 3, 28 The Esplanade, Sydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 Perth WA 6000 Telephone: 61 2 9221 5133 Telephone: 61 3 9664 0300 Telephone: 61 8 9486 7077 Facsimile: 61 2 9221 6814 Facsimile: 61 3 9650 7722 Facsimile: 61 8 9486 7024 Website: www.gresham.com.au Terms and Conditions Information contained in this publication The opinions, advice, recommendations and other information contained in this publication, whether express or implied, are published or made by Gresham Advisory Partners Limited (ABN 88 093 611 413), Australian financial services license (247113), and by its officers and employees (collectively “Gresham Advisory Partners”) in good faith in relation to the facts known to it at the time of preparation. 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