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Presentation by Peter Groenen, Idorsia

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Peter Groenen, long standing industry expert, head of Translational Science at Idorsia and founding member of the DayOne Initiative, set out the facts and figures: the percentage of drug approvals is stagnating at best (except for orphan indications), the numbers of drugs brought to the patients per billion dollars spent are in stark decline, and return on investment is projected to hit the zero mark in 2020. Even when these doom figures may not become reality in the next 10 years, pharmaceutical innovation and change of the business model is required.

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Presentation by Peter Groenen, Idorsia

  1. 1. An initiative managed by BaselArea.swiss in close collaboration with the Canton of Basel-Stadt
  2. 2. Disclaimer: Everything presented and explained here today are my own words, thoughts and opinions so do not represent those of Idorsia or any other organization.
  3. 3. PHARMA IN NUMBERS
  4. 4. A snapshot of the industry in KPIs early 2019
  5. 5. R&D Investments are highly variable across the industry
  6. 6. R&D Investments are highly variable across the industry Total Revenue ( $bn) R&D Spend( $bn) R&D as percentage of sales( $bn)
  7. 7. Pharma R&D Investments no longer highest across industries From Bloomberg Company reports 2017
  8. 8. Significant increase in R&D for rare and orphan diseases
  9. 9. SO IT’S ALL GOING GREAT… ….RIGHT?
  10. 10. From the 2018 FDA drug approvals you may think so…. 1 0 From Mullard, Nature Reviews Drug Discovery (2019)
  11. 11. ….the jump is caused by orphan indications 1 1 From Mullard, Nature Reviews Drug Discovery (2019)
  12. 12. Eroom‘s law …Moore‘s law in reverse: halving the output every 9 years 1 2 From Scannell, Nature Reviews Drug Discovery (2012)
  13. 13. ….the jump is caused by orphan indications 1 3 From Kevin Scott, Linked in Post 2016
  14. 14. Pharmaceutical R&D in the 21st Century: professional gambling or industrialized science? 1 4
  15. 15. Managing the unknown 1 5
  16. 16. Unknown-unknowns Known- unkowns Infinite complexity? 1 6 Known-knowns
  17. 17. What are the causes of decline despite all great new technologies? 1 7 • Science: limited understanding of biological complexity (..and the reproducibility problem) • Medical practice: old fashioned medical diagnosis (Drugs tested in the wrong disease) • A rat is not a small patient: translational errors • Disconnect from reality, shareholder driven: overestimation • Increasingly more complex and specialized funcions: managerial complexity and decision making (company size) • Short term incentives, industrialized science with target numbers per year ( A drug takes 12-16 year to arrive to the market) • …….
  18. 18. 1 8 1 8 An initiative managed by BaselArea.swiss in close collaboration with the Canton of Basel-Stadt Thank You, let’s debate!

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