Scenario planning strategic workforce planning axiom consulting partners


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Scenario planning strategic workforce planning axiom consulting partners

  1. 1. What Can We Learn About Workforce Planning From Napoleon?1 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  2. 2. Napoleon’s March on Moscow in 1812 In  September,  troops   enter  Moscow   On  June  1812,  400,000   troops  advance  Direc=on  the  army  was   on  Russia   traveling,  showing  where   100,000  troops  begin   Weather  temperature  at   split  off  and  rejoined   the  return  to  France   units   certain  dates  in  the   campaign   Brutal  cold,  guerilla   10,000  troops   aLacks,  and  lack  of  food  crossed  the  Nemen   troops  cross  the   27,000   and  supplies  deplete  the   Berezina  in  November   French  troops  2 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  3. 3. Scenario Planning Applied to the French Invasion of Russia: The Turning Point – Battle of Polotsk What  are  the  range  of   What  leading  utcomes  as  what  f  hese     What  aire  ohe  ikelihood  r  e  engage    possible   t indicators  o t condi=ons   What   s  the  l implica=ons  o t these     increase  tussian  nd  come  oo  each  oato  St.     the  R he  probability  mf   frui=on?   outcomes  a Army  in  oust  we   utcome?   outcomes    how   t ur  push   dapt?   Petersburg? Scenario  1  (Best  Case):    French  troops  push   Scenario  2  (Most  LRussian  troops.   roops  slow   East  unimpded  by   ikely):  Russian  t down  the  French  troops  aRussian  troops  stop     Scenario  3  (Worst  Case):   t  Polotsk,  delaying  a march  on  Saint  Pto  Saint  Petersburg  at  Polotsk;   the  French  push  etersburg.   the  baKle  must  be  decided  at  Moscow.    3 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  4. 4. This Webcast Will Discuss… The  business  case  for  aligning  talent     1 supply  and  business  demand   What  is  scenario  planning  and  how  it  can   2 improve  strategic  workforce  planning   Three  leading  prac)ces  to  maximize  workforce   3 planning  efforts    4 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  5. 5. Workforce Strategy Archetypes Over the Last Decade5 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  6. 6. …So Why Do We Continue to See Disconnects Between Strategy and How a Company Manages Talent? 1.  Paralysis  due  to  the  lack  of     clarity  about  the  future   business  environment   2.  Lack  of  understanding  of     (and  focus  on)  the  rela)onship     between  strategy  and  talent   3.  Lack  of  understanding  of  the   true  “cost”  of  talent   4.  Lack  of  insight  into  future  talent  requirements   5.  Disparate,  disconnected,  and  overly-­‐engineered  HR   management  processes  developed  for  technocrats,  not   business  people  6 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  7. 7. Three Leading Practices to Achieve Optimal Talent Alignment With Strategic Workforce Planning Keep  a  close  pulse  on  business  drivers  to  understand  how  value    Keep  a  close  pulse   1 on  business  drivers     is  created  and  monitor  leading  indicators  to  gain  an  early  read  on   how  condi)ons  in  the  market  and  economy  impact  these  drivers.    U=lize  Scenario     U)lize  scenario  planning  techniques  to  map  out  the  range  of   2 Planning   Techniques   likely  futures  and  link  the  SWP  process  and  discussions  about   talent  to  these  scenarios.     Segment  and   Differen)ate  the  workforce  by  segmen)ng  talent  along  the   3 Differen=ate  Talent   dis)nct  ac)vi)es  that  correspond  to  each  business  driver.  7 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  8. 8. Let’s First Get Grounded on a Definition for Strategic Workforce Planning8 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  9. 9. Scenario Planning Provides a Methodology for Identifying Alternative Strategic Options Tradi=onal  Planning   Scenario  Planning   “Best”  case            (+15%)   Strategic   Op=on  A   “Base”  case   Strategic   Op=on  B   R E   FUTU “Worst”  case                (-­‐15%)   TODAY   TODAY   Strategic   Op=on  C   Appropriate  in  rela=vely  stable  environment   Appropriate  for  long-­‐term  planning  and  to   and/or  very  short-­‐term  talent  planning.     force  “out-­‐of-­‐the-­‐box”  thinking.  9 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  10. 10. The Strategic Workforce Planning Process… 1  Iden)fy  the  value  drivers  (e.g.,   Translate business cri)cal  ac)vi)es  and  processes)   strategy into to  achieve  the  business  strategy   value drivers    Determine  ac)ons  and   6 2  Iden)fy  the  current  and   investments  to  close  the   Determine Determine future  organiza)onal   gaps,  including  )me  and   talent strategy capabilities capabili)es  associated   money  associated  with   to close gaps needed to win with  the  value  drivers     build,  buy,  rent  decisions   Strategic   Workforce   Planning   5 3  Iden)fy  apparent  and    Iden)fy  and  segment     hidden  gaps  and  run   Identify and talent  (by  role)  based  on   Identify gaps segment talent mul)ple  scenarios,  if   rela)onship  to  organiza)ona needed,  to  understand   capabili)es   poten)al  gaps   4 Determine future headcount Potential demand vs. Determine  headcount  demand  vs.   application of supply supply  in  each  role,  while  factoring   scenario planning both  internal  and  external  labor   market  dynamics  10 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  11. 11. Leading Practice 1: Keep A Close Pulse On Business Drivers Case:     Wireless  Telecommunica=ons  Co.     §  Iden)fying  the  highest  priority  business  drivers   §  Determining  the  capabili)es  that  have  the     greatest  influence  on  strategy  execu)on   §  Establishing  clear  lines  of  accountability  for  key  results   §  Ensuring  the  key  performance  measures  are  known  to  all   §  Communica)ng  to  employees  how  performance  in  their   func)onal  area  influences  company  performance     §  Determining  cri)cal  competencies  required  to  deliver  against   these  drivers   §  Deploying  the  right  talent  into  the  right  roles  11 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  12. 12. Value Tree Mapping™Case Example: What are the Key Drivers of Revenue? Price  /  Value   Adver)sing   Effec)veness   Ability  to  Acquire   Customers   Marke)ng   Effec)veness   Number  of   Ability  to  Retain   Customer  Revenue     Customers   Customers   Sa)sfac)on   Ability  to   Understand   Customer  Loss   Customer  Needs   Rate   Prepaid   Base  Level  of  Plan   Plan   Sold   Compe))veness   ARPU   Plan  Type   Postpaid   Ability  to  Sell  Data/ Selling   =   High  Priority  Value  Drivers   Addi)onal    Services   Effec)veness   HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  13. 13. Value Tree Mapping™ Case Example: What are the Drivers of Customer Satisfaction and Retention? Availability  of  New   Products   Web   Role  Defini)on   &Technologies   Ease  of  Access  to   Training   Price  /  Value   Support   Call  Center   Effec)veness   Customer   Sa=sfac=on  &   Customer  Support   Ability  to  Diagnose   Effec)veness  of   Effec)veness   &  Resolve  Issues   Service  Reps   Hiring  Effec)veness   Reten=on     Clarity  of   Service  Reliability   Network  Coverage   Systems  Quality   Performance   Metrics   Alignment  +   Billing  Clarity   Network  Reliability   Capital  Expenditure   Compensa)on  &   Mo)va)on   Flexibility  of   Payment  Op)ons   Equipment  Quality   1313 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  14. 14. Lens to Examine Talent Implications of Critical Business Drivers §  Demand  and  growth  forecasts   §  Poli)cal  and  regulatory  change     Industry   Economics     §  Labor  and  material  costs   §  Global  markets   §  Disrup)ve   §  Emerging  compe))on   technologies   Emerging   Compe==ve   §  Pricing   §  Technology   Technologies   Landscape   trends   §  Brand  posi)on   Key   §  Product  life-­‐ Business   cycles     Drivers   §  Changing  buying  paKerns   §  Cash  flow   Financial   Customer   §  Customer  demographics   §  Access  to  capital   Constraints   Dynamics     §  Brand  loyalty   §  Debt  to  capital  ra)o   §  Customer/market  access  14 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  15. 15. Leading Practice 2: Utilize Scenario Planning Techniques Case:     An  Electronic  Systems  and  Controls  Business  Expands  Into  China   §  The  business  develops  and  applies  advanced  technologies  that   enable  energy-­‐genera)ng  facili)es  to  operate  safely  and  in  an   energy-­‐efficient  manner  across  the  globe   §  To  meet  a  projected  8  percent  increase  in  electricity  consump)on,   China  says  it  will  add  about  235  gigawaKs  of  hydroelectric,   nuclear,  wind  and  solar  power  capacity  by  2015   §  China  wants  11.4  percent  of  its  energy  to  come  from  non-­‐fossil-­‐ fuel  energy  sources  by  2015  and  has  a  goal  of  15  percent  by   decades  end   §  One  strategic  op)on  calls  for  significant  growth  in  the  nuclear   controls  and  opera)on  management  businesses,  but  leaders  are   concerned  that  expansion  in  China  will  be  difficult  to  execute   §  Difficultly  acquiring,  developing,  and  deploying  the  necessary   systems  engineering  talent  to  support  the  business  has  been   iden)fied  as  a  key  constraint  15 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  16. 16. Scenario-based Workforce Planning Enables Organizations to… §  Focus  on  those  strategic  decisions  that  will  drive  performance   §  Model  and  plan  for  changing  workforce  assump)ons   §  Build  consensus  among  the  senior  management  team  around   the  most  “robust”  strategic  op)ons     §  Iden)fy  “leading  indicators”  with  which  to  monitor  ongoing   change  of  cri)cal  business  drivers   §  Quickly  adapt  short-­‐term  ac)ons  and  long-­‐term  strategy  as   business  condi)ons  change    16 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  17. 17. Four Basic Steps to Scenario-based Workforce Planning 1.  Iden=fy  the  “most  likely”  business  scenario         2.  Determine  baseline  business  scenario   3.  Iden=fy  alterna=ve  business  scenarios   4.  Validate  with  key  stakeholders  17 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  18. 18. Case Example: Scenario Planning for China Expansion18 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  19. 19. Leading Practice 3: Segment and Differentiate Talent Case:     Defense  and  Civil  Contractor  to  the  US  Government   §  The  business  provides  professional  services  to  various   government  agencies  with  a  broad  range  of  capabili)es   and  areas  of  exper)se  including  cyberwarfare  and   security   §  Defense  Department  has  been  called  on  to  find  $259   billion  in  cuts  in  the  next  five  years  —  and  $487  billion   over  the  decade   §  PaneKa  has  repeatedly  said  that  he  would  preserve   financing  for  Special  Opera)ons  forces,  cyberwarfare   and  intelligence,  surveillance  and  reconnaissance   systems   §  An  up)ck  in  government  contracts  and  task  orders   related  to  cyber  security  projects  suggest  a  significant   change  in  the  type  of  work  the  firm  will  be  doing  over   the  next  five  year  and  the  type  of  talent  it  needs    19 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  20. 20. Segmentation Enables Workforce Differentiation and Focuses the Talent Strategy and HR Service Delivery Priorities Talent  Management    and   Role/Segment   Typical  Porlolio  Gap   Required  HR  Alignment  Efforts   HR  Service  Priori=es   §  Build  capacity  through  rapid   Strategic  Talent   infusion  of  external  talent  and   §  Talent  pipelining   §  Talent  shortage   §  Key  to  compe))ve   accelerated  development  of  select   §  Atrophy  in  strategic   §  EVP/Branding   advantage   internal  talent   organiza)onal   §  Reten)on   §  Normally  a  “hot  skill”  in   §  Tailor  the  employee  value   capability   §  Accelerated  development   high  demand   proposi)on  (EVP)  to  aKract  top   talent   Core  Talent   §  Talent  shortage   §  Protect  and  strengthen  capabili)es   §  Selec)on   (current  or  an)cipated   §  Possesses  proprietary   through  ongoing  development  of   due  to  aKri)on)   §  AKrac)on  and  reten)on   knowledge  and  skills   current  bench  and  talent  pipeline   §  Atrophy  in   and  strong  EVP   §  Development   §  Hard  to  replace  –  “tribal   organiza)onal   knowledge”   §  Strengthen  the  EVP   §  Performance  management   capability   Requisite  Talent   §  Development/rota)on   §  Performs  work  that  is   §  Talent  overage   §  Streamline  and/or  outsource   §  Performance  management   necessary  but  could  be   §  Low  ROI  on  talent   segment  or  consider  re-­‐tooling   handled  through  alterna)ve   investment   around  core  capabili)es   §  Exi)ng  (aKri)on,  outsourcing,   staffing/  delivery  strategies   downsizing)   Non-­‐Core  (Misfit)  Talent   §  Divest  en)re  talent   §  Exi)ng  (aKri)on,  outsourcing,   §  Possesses  skill  sets  no   §  Talent  overage   §  Iden)fy  opportuni)es  to  move  “A”   downsizing)   longer  needed   players  into  other  roles  20 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  21. 21. Case Example: Differentiating Talent to Penetrate Cyber Security Market Role/Segment   Example  Roles   §  Malware  Analyst   Strategic  Talent   §  Digital  Forensics  Analyst   §  Key  to  compe))ve  advantage   §  Cloud  Compu)ng  Engineer   §  Normally  a  “hot  skill”  in  high  demand   §  Cyber  Intelligence  Analyst   Core  Talent   §  Penetra)on  Tester   §  Possesses  proprietary  knowledge  and  skills   §  Network  Security  Analyst   §  Hard  to  replace  –  “tribal  knowledge”   §  Network  Intelligence  Analyst   Requisite  Talent   §  Systems  Administrator   Performs  work  that  is  necessary  but  could  be  handled   §  Systems  Integrator   through  alterna)ve  staffing/  delivery  strategies   §  Help  Desk  Professional   Non-­‐Core  (Misfit)  Talent   §  Not  Applicable   Possesses  skill  sets  no  longer  needed  21 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  22. 22. A Segmented Workforce Strategy Enables Optimal Alignment Shed Support roles whose work can be delivered at a lower cost with the same quality Demand for Goods/Services Shed Surplus roles that are no longer relevant to the business If current or future ROI can be measured, add Strategic and Core roles that are directly related to the critical business drivers Time Demand Talent Portfolio22 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  23. 23. How to Get Started… 1.  Look  for  opportuni)es  to  surface  fact-­‐based  insights  about  the   workforce  capabili)es  and  capacity  that  may  impact  the  ability   to  achieve  the  business  strategy       2.  Know  the  business  inside  and  out  and  be  able  ar)culate  the   talent  implica)ons  of  changes  in  the  business  environment     3.  Apply  the  leading  prac)ces  to  a  hot-­‐buKon  issue  of  your   leadership  team    23 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  24. 24. 24 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved  
  25. 25. Aaron Sorensen, Ph.D. Dr.  Aaron  Sorensen  is  a  Principal  with  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners,  a  management   consul)ng  firm  that  helps  businesses  align  strategy,  organiza)on,  and  talent  to  achieve   superior  results.    A  psychologist  with  a  background  in  advanced  analy)cs,  Aaron  brings   unique  insight  to  organiza)on,  leadership,  and  workforce  issues  that  impact  profitability   and  constrain  growth.    He  has  worked  with  numerous  organiza)ons  on  their  talent   management  challenges  including  3M,  Corning,  Booz  Allen  Hamilton,  and  Novar)s.    He   frequently  publishes  and  speaks  on  the  topics  of  strategic  workforce  planning,  succession   planning  and  talent  management  and  is  an  author  to  The  Talent  Management  Handbook   chapter  on  strategic  workforce  planning.   Aaron  has  a  Masters  and  PhD  in  Industrial/Organiza)onal  Psychology  with  a   concentra)on  in  Applied  Sta)s)cs  and  Business  from  DePaul  University,  and  a  Bachelors   of  Science  with  honors  in  Psychology  from  the  University  of  Iowa.    Aaron  is  a  member  of   the  Society  of  Industrial  Organiza)onal  Psychologists  (SIOP)  and  the  American   Psychological  Associa)on  (APA).   Aaron  is  based  in  Axiom’s  Chicago  office  and  can  be  reached  at  312.343.4644  or  25 HR  Execu)ve  Webcast  |  February  9,  2012  |  Property  of  Axiom  Consul)ng  Partners.    All  Rights  Reserved