Energy and Climate Change <ul><li>Our energy system </li></ul><ul><li>Development pathways </li></ul><ul><li>National pers...
The “energy and CO 2  economy” Oil   Biomass  Gas  Coal  Nuclear  Renewables Primary Energy Liquids Direct combustion Indu...
Our Energy System is Vast
. . . and heavily dependent on fossil fuels Global energy consumption * * BP Statistical Review of World Energy
Global Fossil Carbon Emissions Consumption (2006) 3.1 *  billion tonnes 3.9 *  billion tonnes 2.6 *  billion tonnes * oil ...
E.ON 2.3 GW coal-fired power station at Scholven Coal fired power stations: > 1000 GW globally ~ 6.5 billion tonnes CO 2  ...
Traffic Road transport: > 750 million light duty vehicles ~ 70 million trucks and buses > 250 million motorbikes ~ 5 billi...
Refineries Refineries: > 80 million barrels per day capacity ~ 1.1 billion tonnes of CO 2  per annum
Cement Cement: ~ 2 billion tonnes per annum production > 1.5 billion tonnes of CO 2  per annum
About half of all CO 2  emissions relate to buildings – heating, cooling, lighting, appliances, IT etc.                   ...
<ul><li>Drax, Yorkshire </li></ul><ul><li>25 TWhrs p.a. </li></ul><ul><li>0.13 % of global electricity generation </li></ul>
Middelgrunden Wind Farm, Copenhagen 100 GWhrs p.a. 0.0005 % of global electricity generation
Springerville Solar Generating Station, Arizona 8 GWhrs p.a. 0.00004 % of global electricity generation
Demand is accelerating
Existing oil and gas will not keep up with accelerating demand
More challenging reserves are being developed to help meet the accelerating demand
Coal use is growing strongly to help meet the accelerating demand
 
 
A new  direction is needed The way we produce and use energy today is not sustainable
Global Energy Ladder (2005) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40...
Future Direction ?? 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 GDP...
Growth,  d evelopment and  e nergy  d emand <ul><li>Global population divided into income groups : </li></ul><ul><li>Poore...
High and low carbon pathways 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 2002 IEA repo...
High and low carbon pathways 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 WRE 450 (IPCC...
Key Levers in the Economy <ul><li>CO 2  emissions  =  people  GDP  energy  CO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>  person  unit GDP  unit...
Options for change A further shift to natural gas Nuclear power Renewables Bio-products Carbon capture and storage Mass tr...
Pathways to 2050 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 GDP per capita, US$ 2000 (ppp) Energy per...
All change tomorrow   ? <ul><li>Many advocate that a rapid change in   our energy   infrastructure is the only solution to...
Evolution of technology 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1943:  “ I think there is a world market may be for six compute...
The lifetime of energy infrastructure 5  10  15  20  25  30  35  40  45  50  55  60  65  70  75  80 ++ The rate of technol...
« Technology transfer »? 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Last vehicles  on the road? New technologies in...
Turnover takes time 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Total vehicles, millions Large scale &quot;alt...
Pathway to 2050 for the EU (illustrative) A significant shift required in both “energy per GDP” and “CO 2  per unit of ene...
EU Today Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 ...
EU 2025 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (5...
EU 2050 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (5...
Pathway to 2050 for the USA (illustrative) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 GD...
USA Today Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50...
USA 2025 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (...
USA 2050 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (...
USA Power Generation 2004 2025 2050 35 EJ 30 25 20 15 10 5
USA Mobility – Doing more with less 2004 2025 2050 35 30 EJ 25 20 15 10 5 0  1  2  3  4  5  trillion-kms 4.5 0  1  2  3  4...
US Milestones – Energy Efficiency 2025 2050 Current rate is ~ 1.7% p.a. Achieved  significant efficiency gains , with ener...
US Milestones – Renewables 2025 2050 <ul><li>Introduced  wind and solar power  on a significant scale: </li></ul><ul><ul><...
US Milestones – Carbon capture & storage 2025 2050 Most coal fired power stations in the USA are using  carbon capture and...
US Milestones – Nuclear 2025 2050 Gained full public acceptance of  nuclear power  as a viable zero-carbon power generatio...
US Milestones – Vehicles 2025 2050 Vehicle efficiency  now over twice that of 2004. Majority of light-duty vehicles either...
US Milestones – Automotive Fuels 2025 2050 Advanced bio-fuels  and  electricity  have reached a level of more than 12% in ...
A world of energy nationalism   A world of emerging coalitions   Accelerated structural & regulatory change Reactive struc...
 
Scramble Total primary energy (EJ per year) <ul><li>Fear of energy insecurity dominates  </li></ul><ul><li>Nations scrambl...
 
Blueprints <ul><li>Broad awareness of challenges at all levels, not only national  </li></ul><ul><li>Grassroots actions le...
Consequences for energy CO 2  emissions Late reactions Early actions Europe North America Asia & Oceania - Developed Asia ...
History -Traditional paths Revolutionary paths 1970-2005 1970-2050 <ul><ul><li>History is not sustainable and Blueprints <...
Blueprints is stabilising at 550 ppm CO 2 ; Scramble reaches 683 ppm CO 2  in 2100, . . . . . . but still rising at 3 ppm ...
Blueprints is stabilising at 630 ppm CO 2 e; Scramble passes 1000 ppm CO 2 e in 2100 Source: MIT
Expected temperature rises start to diverge after 2030 IPCC: mean temperature in 2005 is around 0.5°C warmer than pre-indu...
. . . but the debate is shifting rapidly IPCC 3 rd AR Hadley G8 Report  IPCC 4 th AR  Jim Hansen  <550 ppm   450 ppm   400...
Even deeper cuts for < 450 ppm 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 WRE 450 (IP...
Milestones by 2050 for < 450 ppm <ul><li>A zero emissions power generation sector. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear, renewabl...
Steep declines or overshooting?
What is a plausible phase-out profile for fossil emissions under 500 ppm CO 2 e? Arguments for a coal-then-gas-then-oil tr...
<ul><li>The three hard truths are very hard </li></ul><ul><li>Transition is both inevitable and necessary  </li></ul><ul><...
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Energy And Climate Change

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  • Energy And Climate Change

    1. 1. Energy and Climate Change <ul><li>Our energy system </li></ul><ul><li>Development pathways </li></ul><ul><li>National perspectives </li></ul><ul><li>Scenarios to 2050 </li></ul>
    2. 2. The “energy and CO 2 economy” Oil Biomass Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Primary Energy Liquids Direct combustion Industry and Manufacturing Mobility Final Energy Agriculture and Land Use Energy Energy Energy Buildings Power Generation
    3. 3. Our Energy System is Vast
    4. 4. . . . and heavily dependent on fossil fuels Global energy consumption * * BP Statistical Review of World Energy
    5. 5. Global Fossil Carbon Emissions Consumption (2006) 3.1 * billion tonnes 3.9 * billion tonnes 2.6 * billion tonnes * oil equivalent p.a. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 CO 2 Emissions, million tonnes Carbon p.a. CO2 emissions from gas flaring CO2 emissions from cement production CO2 emissions from solid fuel consumption CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption CO2 emissions from gas fuel consumption
    6. 6. E.ON 2.3 GW coal-fired power station at Scholven Coal fired power stations: > 1000 GW globally ~ 6.5 billion tonnes CO 2 per annum
    7. 7. Traffic Road transport: > 750 million light duty vehicles ~ 70 million trucks and buses > 250 million motorbikes ~ 5 billion tonnes CO 2 p.a.
    8. 8. Refineries Refineries: > 80 million barrels per day capacity ~ 1.1 billion tonnes of CO 2 per annum
    9. 9. Cement Cement: ~ 2 billion tonnes per annum production > 1.5 billion tonnes of CO 2 per annum
    10. 10. About half of all CO 2 emissions relate to buildings – heating, cooling, lighting, appliances, IT etc.                                 
    11. 11. <ul><li>Drax, Yorkshire </li></ul><ul><li>25 TWhrs p.a. </li></ul><ul><li>0.13 % of global electricity generation </li></ul>
    12. 12. Middelgrunden Wind Farm, Copenhagen 100 GWhrs p.a. 0.0005 % of global electricity generation
    13. 13. Springerville Solar Generating Station, Arizona 8 GWhrs p.a. 0.00004 % of global electricity generation
    14. 14. Demand is accelerating
    15. 15. Existing oil and gas will not keep up with accelerating demand
    16. 16. More challenging reserves are being developed to help meet the accelerating demand
    17. 17. Coal use is growing strongly to help meet the accelerating demand
    18. 20. A new direction is needed The way we produce and use energy today is not sustainable
    19. 21. Global Energy Ladder (2005) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 GDP, US$ per capita (2000$, ppp) Energy, GJ per capita USA Italy Portugal Korea China
    20. 22. Future Direction ?? 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 GDP, US$ per capita (2000$, ppp) Energy, GJ per capita 20 th Century Trendline USA 2005 Italy 2005 Portugal 2005 38% of current global energy demand China
    21. 23. Growth, d evelopment and e nergy d emand <ul><li>Global population divided into income groups : </li></ul><ul><li>Poorest (GDP < $1,500) </li></ul><ul><li>Developing (GDP < $5,000) </li></ul><ul><li>Emerging (GDP < $12,000) </li></ul><ul><li>Developed (GDP > $12,000) </li></ul>2000 20 5 0 Population, millions Source: WBCSD adaptation of IEA 2003 Shifting the development profile to a “low poverty” world means energy needs double by 2050 Shifting the development profile further to a “developed” world means energy needs triple by 2050 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 Low Poverty Base case Prosperous world Population expected to rise to 9 billion by 2050, mainly in poorest and developing countries. Developed (GDP>$12,000) Emerging (GDP<$12,000) Developing (GDP<$5,000) Poorest (GDP<$1,500) Primary energy
    22. 24. High and low carbon pathways 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation. WRE 450 (IPCC) WRE 550 (IPCC) WRE 1000 (IPCC) Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report
    23. 25. High and low carbon pathways 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 WRE 450 (IPCC) WRE 550 (IPCC) WRE 1000 (IPCC) Theoretical carbon emissions profiles published in IPCC 3 rd Assessment Report 2002 IEA reported fossil emissions plus correction for unsustainable biomass & deforestation. >> 550 ppm Trajectory Current “business as usual” trend, even with more renewable power, biofuels and energy efficiency improvements. << 550 ppm Trajectory An alternative trajectory will require concerted action at national and inter-national level. It must start now.
    24. 26. Key Levers in the Economy <ul><li>CO 2 emissions = people GDP energy CO 2 </li></ul><ul><li> person unit GDP unit energy </li></ul><ul><li>Only four factors govern the outcome, being: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Population Number of people </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Standard of Living GDP per person </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Energy Intensity Energy per unit of GDP (efficiency of the economy) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Carbon Intensity CO2 per unit of energy (reflects the energy source) </li></ul></ul>x x x X X
    25. 27. Options for change A further shift to natural gas Nuclear power Renewables Bio-products Carbon capture and storage Mass transportation Road transport Buildings Low energy appliances Doing things differently Energy conservation and efficiency (energy / unit GDP) Emission reduction (CO 2 / unit energy)
    26. 28. Pathways to 2050 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 GDP per capita, US$ 2000 (ppp) Energy per capita, GJ Wealthy developed Developed Leading developing Developing Improving energy efficiency 2025 2050 Falling CO 2 emissions per unit of energy 2008
    27. 29. All change tomorrow ? <ul><li>Many advocate that a rapid change in our energy infrastructure is the only solution to the threat of climate change. However : </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Major transitions at the global level will take time to implement </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The speed with which new technologies diffuse depends on many factors. </li></ul></ul>
    28. 30. Evolution of technology 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1943: “ I think there is a world market may be for six computers ” Thomas Watson, Chairman, IBM Dot.com boom: explosive growth of the internet, acceptance as an everyday part of life 1946: ENIAC unveiled 1964: IBM 360 1972: Xerox GUI and mouse 1982: IBM PC 2000: Cheap high speed computing 1991: www convention adopted 1990: Number of hosts exceeds 100’000 1983: Switch-over to TCP/IP 1972: @ first used 1969: ARPANET commissioned by DoD for research into networking 1961: First paper on packet-switching theory
    29. 31. The lifetime of energy infrastructure 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 ++ The rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of the relevant capital stock and equipment Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years Nuclear 30 – 60 years Coal power 45+ years Hydro 75+ years Gas turbines 25+ years Buildings 45+++ years
    30. 32. « Technology transfer »? 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Last vehicles on the road? New technologies in developed countries may arrive, mature and even decline before their widespread adoption in developing regions. First prototype First concept 1 million produced 16 million produced Production at 1000 cars/month 1 million per annum produced 21.5 million produced Production ends in Germany Production ends in Mexico Last vehicles on the road in the EU
    31. 33. Turnover takes time 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Total vehicles, millions Large scale &quot;alternative&quot; vehicle manufacture starts in 2010 with 200,000 units per annum and grows at 20% p.a. t hereafter. Total a lternative v ehicles Total t raditional v ehicles Annual total vehicle growth of 2% p.a. Annual vehicle production growth of 2% p.a.
    32. 34. Pathway to 2050 for the EU (illustrative) A significant shift required in both “energy per GDP” and “CO 2 per unit of energy used” 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 GDP per capita, US$ 2000 (ppp) Energy per capita, GJ 1971 1990 2025 2050 Now CO 2 per energy unit used, t / TJ Slope = Energy per GDP Improving energy efficiency
    33. 35. EU Today Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle * USD 2000 (ppp) 460 million people 52 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 24 K per capita* 3.9 billion tonnes energy CO 2
    34. 36. EU 2025 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle * USD 2000 (ppp) 471 million people 49 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 39 K per capita* 3.1 billion tonnes energy CO 2
    35. 37. EU 2050 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle * USD 2000 (ppp) 460 million people 42 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 75 K per capita* 1.7 billion tonnes energy CO 2
    36. 38. Pathway to 2050 for the USA (illustrative) 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 $0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 GDP per capita, US$ 2000 (ppp) Energy per capita, GJ A significant shift required in both “energy per GDP” and “CO 2 per unit of energy used” 2025 2050 1971 CO 2 per energy unit used, t / TJ 1990 Now Slope = Energy per GDP Improving energy efficiency
    37. 39. USA Today Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle 300 million people 66.5 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 36 K per capita* 5.8 billion tonnes energy CO 2 * USD 2000 (ppp)
    38. 40. USA 2025 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle 335 million people 65.5 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 57 K per capita* 4.9 billion tonnes energy CO 2 * USD 2000 (ppp)
    39. 41. USA 2050 (illustrative) Solar (50 GW) Wind (50 GW) Coal / CCS (50 GW) Hydro (50 GW) Biomass (50 GW) Nuclear (50 GW) Coal (50 GW) Gas (50 GW) Direct use (5 EJ) Vehicle (20 million) High efficiency vehicle Alternative fuel vehicle 400 million people 60.1 EJ Final Energy GDP $US 88 K per capita* 2.4 billion tonnes energy CO 2 * USD 2000 (ppp)
    40. 42. USA Power Generation 2004 2025 2050 35 EJ 30 25 20 15 10 5
    41. 43. USA Mobility – Doing more with less 2004 2025 2050 35 30 EJ 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 trillion-kms 4.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 trillion-kms 5.3 0 1 2 3 4 5 trillion-kms 5.3
    42. 44. US Milestones – Energy Efficiency 2025 2050 Current rate is ~ 1.7% p.a. Achieved significant efficiency gains , with energy use per GDP improving by nearly 3% annually. Continue to achieve significant energy efficiency gains at a rate of 2.6% p.a.
    43. 45. US Milestones – Renewables 2025 2050 <ul><li>Introduced wind and solar power on a significant scale: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Over 50,000 5MW turbines in operation; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Large scale solar thermal established </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Widespread use of local solar PV. </li></ul></ul>Wind, wave & tidal triples compared to 2025. Solar power now equal to gas as electricity provider, split between thermal and PV.
    44. 46. US Milestones – Carbon capture & storage 2025 2050 Most coal fired power stations in the USA are using carbon capture and storage . Commercialised coal power generation with carbon capture and storage and have some 60 or more plants in operation.
    45. 47. US Milestones – Nuclear 2025 2050 Gained full public acceptance of nuclear power as a viable zero-carbon power generation option and restarted long term growth in this industry. Expanded the role of nuclear in power generation, with some 100 new facilities in operation.
    46. 48. US Milestones – Vehicles 2025 2050 Vehicle efficiency now over twice that of 2004. Majority of light-duty vehicles either electric or plug-in hybrid (or hydrogen fuel cell). On-the road vehicle efficiency is now steadily improving, up 7 mpg vs. 2004 Electricity and/or hydrogen capable vehicles entering the fleet .
    47. 49. US Milestones – Automotive Fuels 2025 2050 Advanced bio-fuels and electricity have reached a level of more than 12% in the transport sector. A range of alternative vehicle fuels such as advanced bio-fuels, electricity and hydrogen in everyday use and making up some 70+% of road transport fuel.
    48. 50. A world of energy nationalism A world of emerging coalitions Accelerated structural & regulatory change Reactive structural & regulatory change
    49. 52. Scramble Total primary energy (EJ per year) <ul><li>Fear of energy insecurity dominates </li></ul><ul><li>Nations scramble to develop indigenous and secure foreign sources of energy. </li></ul><ul><li>Low trust means no action on climate change </li></ul><ul><li>MRHs increase in global influence </li></ul><ul><li>Flight into coal, then biofuels – but limits to growth </li></ul><ul><li>Energy efficiency measures </li></ul><ul><li>Sequential, late & erratic responses to the reality of global supply / demand / CO 2 . </li></ul><ul><li>Energy price spikes, but no/ineffective carbon pricing </li></ul><ul><li>Very high CO 2 </li></ul><ul><li>EVENTS HAVE OUTPACED ACTIONS </li></ul>
    50. 54. Blueprints <ul><li>Broad awareness of challenges at all levels, not only national </li></ul><ul><li>Grassroots actions lead – emerging coalitions </li></ul><ul><li>Actions become mainstream </li></ul><ul><li>Patchwork of local standards are harmonised </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon pricing established early </li></ul><ul><li>Efficiency & Electrification spotlighted </li></ul><ul><li>New infrastructure develops e.g. CCS </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Growth de-links from CO 2 intensity </li></ul><ul><li>CO 2 much lower </li></ul><ul><li>ACTIONS HAVE OUTPACED EVENTS </li></ul>Total primary energy (EJ per year)
    51. 55. Consequences for energy CO 2 emissions Late reactions Early actions Europe North America Asia & Oceania - Developed Asia & Oceania - Developing Latin America Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
    52. 56. History -Traditional paths Revolutionary paths 1970-2005 1970-2050 <ul><ul><li>History is not sustainable and Blueprints </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>requires a revolution in energy consumption </li></ul></ul>
    53. 57. Blueprints is stabilising at 550 ppm CO 2 ; Scramble reaches 683 ppm CO 2 in 2100, . . . . . . but still rising at 3 ppm each year Source: MIT
    54. 58. Blueprints is stabilising at 630 ppm CO 2 e; Scramble passes 1000 ppm CO 2 e in 2100 Source: MIT
    55. 59. Expected temperature rises start to diverge after 2030 IPCC: mean temperature in 2005 is around 0.5°C warmer than pre-industrial (1750), and 0.74°C warmer than 100 years ago (1906).
    56. 60. . . . but the debate is shifting rapidly IPCC 3 rd AR Hadley G8 Report IPCC 4 th AR Jim Hansen <550 ppm 450 ppm 400 ppm 350 ppm ?? 2001 2005 2007 2008 Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change
    57. 61. Even deeper cuts for < 450 ppm 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2010 2020 2040 2050 Global Carbon Emissions, GT 2030 WRE 450 (IPCC) WRE 550 (IPCC) WRE 1000 (IPCC) <ul><li>Post-2025 Trajectory </li></ul><ul><li>(<450 ppm) </li></ul><ul><li>Much faster deployment with many facilities (i.e. pre-2025 coal fired power plants) replaced earlier than normal retirement would dictate. </li></ul><ul><li>Pre-2025 Trajectory </li></ul><ul><li>Similar trajectory to 550 ppm case for practical reasons. </li></ul><ul><li>Limited by (e.g.): </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global agreement on an international framework </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Development of policy and carbon markets </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Technology development and early commercialisation constraints </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear power dialogue </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Post-2025 Trajectory </li></ul><ul><li>(<550 ppm) </li></ul><ul><li>All new facilities must adopt new technology (e.g. CCS for coal fired power stations). </li></ul>
    58. 62. Milestones by 2050 for < 450 ppm <ul><li>A zero emissions power generation sector. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Nuclear, renewables and fossil with CCS </li></ul></ul><ul><li>A low emissions transport sector, with fossil fuel still used in aviation. Some nuclear power in the marine sector, rebirth of wind. </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity for most domestic and commercial energy needs and in some heavy industry. Some emissions from; </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cement manufacture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Certain heavy industries (e.g. metals) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Domestic and commercial coal and gas in some developing countries. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sustainable forestry and agricultural practices globally. </li></ul>
    59. 63. Steep declines or overshooting?
    60. 64. What is a plausible phase-out profile for fossil emissions under 500 ppm CO 2 e? Arguments for a coal-then-gas-then-oil trajectory: coal and gas can have CCS and can be substituted for nuclear and renewables in electricity; coal is more CO2-intensive; gas needs eliminating from end-users; oil is in transport where electric vehicles and biofuels will take time to develop. The downside is the regional dimension: China and India need the coal. Coal is phased out first. Gas then needs phasing out in only 5 years! Oil has a longer tail due to transport needs
    61. 65. <ul><li>The three hard truths are very hard </li></ul><ul><li>Transition is both inevitable and necessary </li></ul><ul><li>Technology plays a major role, but no silver bullets </li></ul><ul><li>Political and regulatory choices are pivotal </li></ul><ul><li>The next 5 years are critical </li></ul><ul><ul><li>In summary </li></ul></ul>Tackling all three hard truths TOGETHER is essential for a sustainable future

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