Chris Caton Presentation 08.11

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Another great presentation from Chris Caton at the Entrust lunch August 5 2011

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Chris Caton Presentation 08.11

  1. 1. A Global Economic and Market Outlook<br />Presented by Dr Chris Caton<br />August 2011<br />
  2. 2. My first cartoon ever<br />2<br />
  3. 3. The Eurozone debt issue– peripheral long bond spreads<br />3<br />
  4. 4. 4<br />Financial Market Forecasts<br />
  5. 5. 5<br />The Australian Dollar and US Trade Weighted Index<br />Index<br />AUD/USD<br />AUD/USD (RHS)<br />US TWI inverted (LHS)<br />Source: Datastream<br />
  6. 6. The exchange rate and interest rate differential<br />6<br />
  7. 7. 7<br />Australian Sharemarket Performance – ASX200<br />Source: Bloomberg<br />
  8. 8. The Australian market is again cheap (forward P/E ratio)<br />8<br />
  9. 9. The Australian market has underperformed<br />9<br />
  10. 10. 10<br />It makes a difference when you buy<br />
  11. 11. 11<br />US Housing starts are bumping along the bottom<br />(Millions)<br />Source: Datastream <br />
  12. 12. 12<br />2011 Growth Forecasts (%)<br />Month of Forecast<br />Source: Consensus Economics <br />
  13. 13. 13<br />2012 Growth Forecasts (%)<br />Month of Forecast<br />Source: Consensus Economics <br />
  14. 14. Industrial production (April 2005=100)<br />14<br />
  15. 15. 15<br />Real GDP growth in Australia and the US<br />Year to % change<br />Source: Datastream <br />
  16. 16. 16<br />What goes up…..<br />
  17. 17. 17<br />The Labour market has done well but employment growth has slowed<br />000’s<br />%<br />Employment (LHS)<br />Unemployment Rate (RHS)<br />Source: ABS<br />
  18. 18. Retail has slowed<br />18<br />
  19. 19. And here’s one reason..household saving has risen<br />19<br />
  20. 20. 20<br />Australian Inflation<br />%<br />BT Forecasts<br />GST Effect<br />Source: ABS <br />
  21. 21. Interest rate changes do make a difference!<br />21<br />
  22. 22. House Prices - Australia v Perth<br />Index (1987 = 100)<br />Source: ABS <br />
  23. 23. House prices since 2005<br />23<br />
  24. 24. Prices have fallen everywhere<br />24<br />
  25. 25. 25<br />Gross Domestic Product<br />%<br />BTForecasts<br />GST Effect<br />Source: ABS <br />
  26. 26. Coal exports are recovering but still have a way to go<br />26<br />
  27. 27. 27<br />Mining investment (share of GDP)<br />
  28. 28. 28<br />Global Medium-Term Economic Growth and Inflation Prospects (2011-2021)<br />Source: Consensus Economics<br />
  29. 29. 29<br />Asia-Pacific Medium-Term Economic Growth and Inflation Prospects (2011-2021)<br />Source: Consensus Economics<br />
  30. 30. 30<br />Morgan Stanley Capital Indexes<br />Developed Index<br />Asian Emerging Markets Index<br />Asian Emerging Markets Index (RHS)<br />World Developed Index (LHS)<br />Source: Datastream <br />
  31. 31. 31<br />Summary<br /><ul><li>The global economic recovery continues, albeit slowly. The threat of a double dip in the US is exaggerated. Eurozone debt is a serious issue, but unlikely to be a game-changer.
  32. 32. The Australian economy should resume strong growth, led by mining investment.
  33. 33. Rates may eventually rise further.
  34. 34. The exchange rate is above fair value. The rest of the world is on sale for Australians.
  35. 35. Share markets are cheap.</li></li></ul><li>32<br />This presentation has been prepared by BT Financial Group Limited (ABN 63 002 916 458) ‘BT’ and is for general information only.  Every effort has been made to ensure that it is accurate, however it is not intended to be a complete description of the matters described.  The presentation has been prepared without taking into account any personal objectives, financial situation or needs.  It does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any securities advice or securities recommendation.  Furthermore, it is not intended that it be relied on by recipients for the purpose of making investment decisions and is not a replacement of the requirement for individual research or professional tax advice.  BT does not give any warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information which is contained in this presentation.  Except insofar as liability under any statute cannot be excluded, BT and its directors, employees and consultants do not accept any liability for any error or omission in this presentation or for any resulting loss or damage suffered by the recipient or any other person.  Unless otherwise noted, BT is the source of all charts; and all performance figures are calculated using exit to exit prices and assume reinvestment of income, take into account all fees and charges but exclude the entry fee.  It is important to note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. <br />This document was accompanied by an oral presentation, and is not a complete record of the discussion held.<br />No part of this presentation should be used elsewhere without prior consent from the author.<br />For more information, please call BT Customer Relations on 132 135 8:00am to 6:30pm (Sydney time)<br />
  36. 36. 33<br />Australia’s public debt problem is complete fiction!<br />

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