big bang delivery to
continual value delivery
http://hubblesite.org/news/2009/25

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emergence of waterfall
overshadowed by IID

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2009.
First description of
Iterative Development
(1968) Brian Randell
& F.W. Zurcher
“The basic approach
recognizes the futility of
separating design,
evaluation, and
documentation
processes in software-
system design”

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2009.
Iterative & incremental development has a rich
history since the 1950s
•1950s - X-15 Hypersonic jet was a milestone 1950s
project applying IID
•1960s - Project Mercury, the first human spaceflight
program in the US
•1972 - IBM FSD (Federal Systems Division) working on
1 million+ lines of code for US Trident command system
•1977 - FSD incorporated the Trident IID approach with
over 2500 engineers as an alternative to waterfall

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2009.
Adoption of waterfall driven by Federal mandate
•Winston Royce (1970) “Managing the Development of
Large Software Systems” became poster child for
waterfall
•1985 - DoD-Std-2167 - establishes waterfall as the
mandatory process for software delivery (by accident)
•1994 - Mil-Std-498 - permits both waterfall and IID
•2000 - DoD 5000.2 IID is identified as the preferred
software delivery approach

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2009.
experiencing big bang vs.
incremental value delivery

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
G
am
e
Instead of yoga... the Ball Point Game!
RULES OF THE GAME...
‘Produce’ as many balls as possible in the time allowed
›To ‘deliver’ a ball, every person must touch the ball
›When you pass the ball, it must have air time
›You cannot pass the ball to your neighbour on the
right or left
›One person has to introduce the balls into the
system and the balls have to return to this person in
order to be counted

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
G
am
e
First, a big bang approach...
RULES OF THE GAME...
›To ‘deliver’ a ball, every person
must touch the ball
›When you pass the ball, it must
have air time
›You cannot pass the ball to your
neighbour on the right or left
›One person has to introduce the
balls into the system and the balls
have to return to this person in
order to be counted
ROUND 1
›3 mins - plan how
you will work
together to ‘deliver’
as many balls as you
can
›3 mins - execution!

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
G
am
e
Second, an incremental delivery approach...
RULES OF THE GAME...
›To ‘deliver’ a ball, every person
must touch the ball
›When you pass the ball, it must
have air time
›You cannot pass the ball to your
neighbour on the right or left
›One person has to introduce the
balls into the system and the balls
have to return to this person in
order to be counted
ROUND 2
›1 min - plan how you
will work together to
‘deliver’ as many
balls as you can
›1 min - execution!
›rinse & repeat 3
times

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2009.
“At the University of California at
Irvine, ...they just planted grass... they
waited a year and looked at where
people had made paths in the grass
and built the side walks there.”
adapting vs. defining

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2009.
shifting sands

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Growing Software
Complexity
Software complexity in FORD vehicles
quadrupled in 5 years
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
10
6
4.5
3.4
2.8
2.4
Software lines in FORD vehicles over the past 5 years
x4

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2009.
Growing Software
Complexity
Compared software complexity growth in
aerospace and automotive
F-22 Raptor
F-35 Joint Strike
Boeing 787 Dreamliner
S-Class Daimler 98.6
6.5
5.7
1.7
x10

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Increasing Complexity in
Technology Environments
Language types and versions released per
decade, taken from O’Reilly’s Programming
Language Timeline
0
22
44
66
88
110
1954-1959 1960-1964 1965-1974 1975-1984 1985-1994 1995-2004
104
50
41
25
1211
New programming languages and versions released
x10

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Time to Market
Due to globalization effects, and other
economical changes, the time to market over
time decreased significantly
Deepa Chandrasekaran, Gerard J. Tellis - Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
1915 1939 1972 1976 1983 1994 1998 2000 2002 2004
13.5 years
3
m
onths

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2009.
cynefin framework

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2009.
Simple
ComplicatedComplex
Chaotic
Disorder
Sense
Categorize
Respond
Best