2013 producer meeting

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2013 producer meeting

  1. 1. 2013ProducerMeeting
  2. 2. Risk Management In An Uncertain EnvironmentJanuary 25th 2013HLC/ AgQuest Producer Meeting
  3. 3. Todays agenda includes:8:50-9:00- Ben Fast-County Executive Director-Disaster Payment9:00-9:25-Kurt Legred- CHS- broad range of markets9:25-9:35-Dennis Schreier-General Manager9:35-10:50-Kevin, Joel, Mark, Steve- Scenarios, Matrix, Marketing prices & localYields-Bull, Neutral, & Bearish Scenarios10:50-11:10- Lynn Button- Insurance Quoting Software continuing on from Joel’sexamples & numbers on how insurance minimizes lost members including insurancecost, insurance indemnity during the bull, neutral, & bearish scenarios11:10-11:40- Marty Bonnell- Petroleum- Brams Engineering LLC-Senior CivilEngineer11:40-12:00-Tim Lewis-Agribusiness Farm Insurance Specialist, Certified InsuranceCounselor, Master Farm Certified
  4. 4. Ben Fast-FSACounty Executive Director (CED)USDA Farm Service Agency
  5. 5. CHS Hedging January 25th, 2013 Harvest Land Kurt LegredThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  6. 6. Grain Trade has become a Global Exercise This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  7. 7. CRB- old and newThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  8. 8. Reuters CRB IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  9. 9. Weekly Continuous Commodity IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  10. 10. Weekly Baltic Dry Freight IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  11. 11. Weekly U.S. Dollar IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  12. 12. Monthly U.S. Dollar IndexThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  13. 13. Weekly Crude Oil Futures on CMEThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  14. 14. Monthly Crude Oil Futures on the CME This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  15. 15. US CornThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  16. 16. Corn Outlook• USDA raised the planted acres……lowered harvested acres slightly• The yield was raised 1.1 bushel per acre…..• Feed & Residual saw a healthy 300 million bushel increase while exports were reduced 200 million bushels• 2012-13 exports are down 593 million bushels from 2011-12 marketing year• Ending stocks are at 602 million bushels, down 45 million bushels This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  17. 17. US Corn Supply/Demand Balance Table Estimate 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13Planted Acres 79.6 75.7 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2Harvested Acres 72.4 68.8 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4Yield 136.9 138.2 129.3 142.2 160.4 148.0 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4Sep 1 Stocks 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989Production 9,915 9,503 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,114 10,535 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780Imports 7 10 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 100Total Supply 11,639 11,412 10,578 11,190 12,776 13,237 12,514 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,869Domestic Use 7,799 7,911 7,903 8,332 8,444 9,122 9,086 10,302 10,198 11,079 11,220 10,985 10,317Exports 1,941 1,905 1,588 1,900 1,818 2,147 2,125 2,436 1,858 1,987 1,835 1,543 950Ethanol 628 706 996 1,168 1,323 1,603 2,117 3,026 3,677 4,568 5,021 5,011 4,500Total Use 9,740 9,815 9,491 10,232 10,662 11,270 11,210 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,267Aug 31 Carryout 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 602Stocks to Use 19.5% 16.3% 11.5% 9.4% 19.8% 17.5% 11.6% 12.8% 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 5.3% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  18. 18. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  19. 19. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  20. 20. US Corn Planted Acres 120.0 97.2 100.0 93.5 91.9 86.0 86.4 88.2 78.9 80.9 81.8 80.0 79.6 78.6 78.3 75.7Milion Acres 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  21. 21. US Corn Harvested Acres 100.0 86.5 87.4 90.0 81.4 84.0 79.5 80.0 78.6 72.4 73.6 75.1 69.3 70.9 70.6 70.0 68.8 60.0Million Acres 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  22. 22. US Corn Yield 180.0 160.4 152.8 153.9 160.0 149.1 147.2 164.7 140.0 136.9 129.3 150.7 148.0 138.2 142.2 120.0 123.4Bushels Per Acre 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  23. 23. US Corn Production 14000 13038 13092 12447 12360 12092 12000 11807 11114 10535 10780 9915 9503 10089 10000 8967Million Bushels 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  24. 24. US Corn FSI Usage 7000 6428 6437 5939 5867 6000 4953 5000 4363Million Bushels 4000 3488 2981 3000 2686 2537 2340 1957 2047 2000 1000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  25. 25. US Corn Feed Usage 7000 6158 6141 5938 5842 5864 5795 6000 5563 5598 5246 5140 4793 5000 4548 4450Million Bushels 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  26. 26. US Corn Domestic Use 12000 11079 11220 10985 10302 10198 10317 10000 9122 9086 8844 8332 7911 7903 8000 7799Million Bushels 6000 4000 2000 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  27. 27. US Corn Exports 3000 2500 2436 2147 2125 2000 1941 1905 1900 1987 1818 1858 1835Million Bushels 1588 1543 1500 1000 950 500 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12E 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  28. 28. US Corn Used For Ethanol 6000 5021 5011 5000 4568 4500 4000 3677Million Bushels 3026 3000 2117 2000 1603 1168 1323 995 1000 706 628 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  29. 29. US Corn Ending Stocks 2500 2114 2000 1967 1899 1673 1708 1596 1624 1500Million Bushels 1304 1087 1128 1000 958 989 602 500 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  30. 30. US Corn Stocks To Use Ratio 25.0% 19.5% 19.8% 20.0% 17.5% 16.3% 15.0% 13.9% 12.8% 13.1%Percent 11.6% 11.5% 9.4% 10.0% 8.6% 7.9% 5.3% 5.0% 0.0% 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  31. 31. World Corn Outlook• World production was increased 3.21 million tonnes to 852.30 million tonnes• Brazil production was increased 1.0 million tonnes to 71.0 million tonnes• FSU corn production was reduced ½ a million to 31.76 million tonnes• World ending stocks were lowered 1.62 million tonnes This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  32. 32. World Corn Production & Ending Stocks 1000 884 900 832 852 799 819 792 800 713 697 712 700 589 602 623 599 600Million Tonnes 500 400 300 200 171 148 131 130 149 144 132 125 125 109 127 116 100 104 0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  33. 33. 25% World Corn Stocks to Use20% 19% 18%15% 15% 15% 13%10%5%0% 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  34. 34. China Corn Production & Exports 250.0 208.0 192.8 200.0 177.3 165.9 164.0 151.6 152.3 150.0 130.3 139.4Million Tonnes 121.3 114.0 115.8 106.0 100.0 50.0 15.2 7.3 8.6 7.6 7.6 3.7 5.3 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  35. 35. Argentine Corn Production & Exports 30.0 28.0 25.2 25.0 23.3 22.5 22.0 20.5 21.0 20.0 19.5Million Tonnes 15.8 17.5 15.4 15.5 15.0 15.5 16.5 16.4 14.7 15.3 15.0 14.8 14.6 10.8 11.2 10.9 10.0 10.3 9.7 9.5 5.0 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  36. 36. Brazil Corn Production & Exports 80.0 73.0 71.0 70.0 60.0 58.6 56.1 57.4 51.0 51.0 50.0 47.6 41.7Million Tonnes 41.5 42.8 40.0 35.5 35.0 30.0 20.0 21.5 17.5 10.0 10.8 11.6 7.8 7.1 8.4 6.5 5.2 4.1 4.5 1.9 0.7 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  37. 37. South Africa Corn Production & Exports 16.0 14.0 13.5 13.2 13.4 12.6 12.4 12.0 11.7 10.9 10.1 9.7 10.0 9.7Million Tonnes 8.0 8.0 6.9 7.3 6.0 4.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.0 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E Year This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  38. 38. Annual Corn Use Implied by Weekly EthanolProduction 4620 4600 Cumulative average is at 4541 mb. 4580 4560 mb corn use 4540 4520 4500 4480 4460 USDA est. 4440 4420 Dec 07 Dec 14 Dec 21 Dec 28 Oct 05 Oct 12 Oct 19 Oct 26 Jan 04 Sep 07 Sep 14 Sep 21 Sep 28 Nov 02 Nov 09 Nov 16 Nov 23 Nov 30 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  39. 39. CBOT July 1996 Corn Futures versusCBOT December 1996 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  40. 40. CME July 2013 Corn Futures versus Dec. 2013 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  41. 41. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  42. 42. This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  43. 43. CME Nearby Monthly Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  44. 44. CME March 2013 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  45. 45. CME July 2013 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  46. 46. CME December 2013 Corn FuturesThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  47. 47. Soybeans• WORLD SUPPLY/DEMAND• US BALANCE SHEET• PRICESThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  48. 48. World SituationThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  49. 49. Local Marketing YearsSeptember 1, August 31, 2012 2013 U.S. April 1, 2013 Argentina March 31, 2014 Feb. 1, 2013 Brazil Jan. 31, 2014This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  50. 50. World Soybean Stocks 80 Exporter Stocks- Local 70 Marketing Years World Stocks 60 50 mmt 40 30 20 10 0This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  51. 51. Brazil & Argentina Ending Stocks Local Marketing Years 14 Argentina 12 Brazil Local marketing years ending early 2013 10 8mmt 6 4 2 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  52. 52. Stocks/Use 30% Exporters Stocks/Use- Local World Aggregate 25% 20% 15% MY ended fall 2013 U.S., and spring 2014 S.A. 10% 5% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  53. 53. Stocks-to-Use RatioLocal Marketing Year 16% Argentina Brazil 14% Any additional production losses will come out of use in Brazil; Argentina could maintain current export projection without making a 12% new low in the ratio. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  54. 54. Area Harvested 30 Brazil Argentina 27.5 25.0 25 22.9 22.2 23.5 24.2 21.5 21.7 20.7 21.3 19.5 20 18.4 18.6 18.3 17.6 16.4 16.3 16.4 16.0million ha 15.2 15 13.0 12.9 13.6 13.9 14.0 14.4 12.6 11.4 10.4 10 8.2 8.6 7.0 5 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  55. 55. Soybean Yield 49 Argentina Brazil Linear (Argentina) Linear (Brazil) 46.3 44.6 43.7 44 42.2 41.9 42.442.6 44.5 43.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 41.7 41.9 42.0 37.9 38.1 41.2 39 37.2 40.3 39.7 39.6 39.8 36.1 39.1 bpa 35.2 34.4 34.4 33.032.8 36.436.7 34 36.035.2 32.1 31.5 35.1 34.434.1 33.9 29.6 32.6 29 31.0 29.7 24.0 26.9 24 1991/92 1992/93 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 1990/91 1993/94 1997/98 2001/02 2005/06 2009/10 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  56. 56. Production: Brazil & Argentina Brazil Argentina 160 Crop estimates are coming in as low as 45 mmt for Argentina and 65 mmt for 140 Brazil. 120 mmt 54.0 100 54.5 49.0 48.8 46.2 40.1 80 40.5 35.5 39.0 32.0 33.0 60 30.0 27.8 40 75.3 82.5 61.0 69.0 66.5 52.0 51.0 53.0 57.0 59.0 57.8 20 39.5 43.5 0 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  57. 57. World Import Demand Rest of World China 120 100 80mmtr 60 40 20 0 1990/91 1992/93 1994/95 1995/96 1997/98 1999/00 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2005/06 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2012/13 1991/92 1993/94 1996/97 1998/99 2001/02 2003/04 2006/07 2011/12 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  58. 58. Chinese Crush Margins 800 600 400 200CNY/tonne 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  59. 59. Chinese Soybean Imports 7 6 5 2007/08 4 2008/09 mmt 3 2009/10 2010/11 2 2011/12 1 2012/13 0This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  60. 60. Brazil Soybean Exports 7 6 5mmt 4 2011 2012 3 2013 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  61. 61. U.S. Balance SheetThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  62. 62. NOPA Crush 170 2009/10 2010/11 160 2011/12 2012/13 150 140mb 130 120 Unadjusted for April 2011 110 membership change December was up 10% y/y. 100This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  63. 63. Quarterly Crush Y/Y Assumptions: Q1 +10% 600 Q2+2% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q3 -7% Q4 -28% 500 467 459 451 442 445 443 420 412 400mb 300 200 100 0 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  64. 64. U.S. Bean Export Commitments 1800 1600 1400 1200million bushels 1000 12/13 exports were unchanged at 800 1,345 mb. 600 400 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 200 2012/13 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  65. 65. Export Commitments: % of FinalSoybeans 120% 2012/13 5-yr average 100% 80% 1,345 is consistent with the pace from 2010/11. 60% 40% 20% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  66. 66. Export Commitments: % of FinalSoybean Oil 2012/13 5-yr avg. 120% 100% 80% 60% Oil exports were raised by 350 million pounds. Commitments are now 69% of 40% the projected total, ahead of the average of 39% for this date. 20% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  67. 67. Export Commitments: % of FinalSoybean Meal 2012/13 5-yr avg 120% 100% 80% 60% Meal export s were unchanged on the 40% January report. 20% 0% This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  68. 68. Source: U of IllinoisThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
  69. 69. Source: U of Illinois, OPISThis material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considereda solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is notguaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when tradingcommodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.

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