Antonio piraino the 451 group. cloud computing’s impact on the latin american multi-tenant data center market
Cloud Compu9ng’s impact on the Mul9-‐tenant Datacenter Market Antonio Piraino, Vice President, Tier1 Research
Cloud Compu9ng Impact on the Datacenter Market 1. What’s changing in the market? 2. Who we are 3. Cloud Compu9ng in Context 4. The Virtualiza9on eﬀect 5. Where to Next?
What’s changed in the business Psyche?Consumerization of IT Era
Datacenter/IT Operators Mindset Change • Datacenter operators are realizing the beneﬁts of ac9ng like Service providers within their own facili9es • Despite the hindrances – it is Important to start somewhere
What are your customers asking for? Other Easy to use console Brand-name IT spend can move from capex-to-opex Green IT Tiered Billing system SLA Speed of provisioning Reliability Security Flexibility Low Cost 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
Why is being Services Oriented Important? § “…make and receive VoIP phone calls from your § “Google’s vision for 111 8th Ave acquisi9on includes Google Voice number using Google Talk on the colo providers and network carriers” (December desktop” (June 2011) 2010) § “Microso^ just spent $8.5b to acquire Skype, the § “IBM will spend $360 million to build its most single biggest name in all of VoIP.” (May 2011) sophis9cated, datacenter in RTP, North Carolina, § “Apple just unveiled iMessage at WWDC, a free for businesses” (2008) messaging system…oﬀers several major advantages § “As the race for VoIP and uniﬁed communica9ons over SMS.” (June 2011) heats up, Salesforce leaps into ac9on and picks up § “Facebook’s150,000 square foot datacenter opened VSee.” (June 2011) in Oregon… with another150,000 square foot § “Were excited to announce the launch of live HTTP facility to follow (April 2011) streaming for Amazon CloudFront.”
Tech Bubble 2.0? “Facebook reached 750m users; 7 billion pieces of content shared on the site weekly • La9noamérica suma 118 millones de usuarios de Facebook • Orkut remains biggest with >500k visitors/month “Apple’s15bn app store downloads is growing 9 Ames faster than Macdonald’s” (A.Love) • Search and Social networks receive more hits that ecommerce sites • Informa9on, collabora9on and business produc9vity “Google Android 550,000 a day, 160m Chrome users, $37bn cash, $200bn market cap” • Google has 90% market share in LatAm (for search) • And fastest Google audience growth is from LatAm “TwiQers July membership increased 50,000 per day with 95 million tweets a day” • In October 2010, Brazil was Twimer’s #1 market • “LinkedIn added up to $102/share with $470m revenue and over 100m users” • LatAm has over 8.5m members Facebook, Groupon, Zynga, LivingSocial, TwiQer, LinkedIn, Pandora ($3bMarket Cap = 16x Revenue), Zillow: $3.5 billion revenue; $200bn Market Cap. • The number of internet users in Latam has been increasing at double the rate of popula9on increase (15% 2009/10) • Boom is s9ll coming Do Not Confuse with Cloud Compu3ng!
Cloud Compu9ng Impact on the Datacenter Market 1. What’s changing in the market 2. Who we are 4. Cloud Compu9ng in Context 4. The Virtualiza9on eﬀect 5. Where to Next?
The 451 Group 451 Research is focused on the business of enterprise IT innova9on. The company’s analysts provide cri9cal and 9mely insight into the compe99ve dynamics of innova9on in emerging technology segments. Tier1 Research is a single-‐source research and advisory ﬁrm covering the mul9-‐tenant datacenter, hos9ng, IT and cloud-‐compu9ng sectors, blending the best of industry and ﬁnancial research. The Up9me Ins9tute is ‘The Global Data Center Authority’ and a pioneer in the crea9on and facilita9on of end-‐user knowledge communi9es to improve reliability and uninterrup9ble availability in datacenter facili9es. TheInfoPro is a leading IT advisory and research ﬁrm that provides real-‐world perspec9ves on the customer and market dynamics of the enterprise informa9on technology landscape, harnessing the collec9ve knowledge and insight of leading IT organiza9ons worldwide. ChangeWave Research is a research ﬁrm that iden9ﬁes and quan9ﬁes ‘change’ in consumer spending behavior, corporate purchasing, and industry, company and technology trends.
Virtualiza9on • Roots in the 1960’s as a way to par99on large, expensive mainframe systems into smaller units that can operate independently of each other, thereby maximizing capital investment. • Abandoned through the desktop PC wave (80’s), the Client/Server wave (90’s). • Then in 1999, “VMware Worksta9on” was released from a small Palo Alto, CA startup. Ini9al beneﬁts… § More eﬃcient use of compute capacity. § Faster provisioning for new business ini9a9ves, training, dev/test, lab environments, etc. § Lower labor cost for install, upgrade, backup, restore, move opera9ons. • Physical servers are only ever racked once. • Moving virtual servers as easy as copying a ﬁle. • Some mi9ga9ng costs in complexity, licensing, manageability
Aggregate Cloud ‘As a Service’ Market CAGR ~25%
Growth in the Rest of the Market Internet Infrastructure Market 2009-‐2013 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 $45,000 Revenue (US$m) $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 2009 2010 2011* 2012* 2013*
Cloud Compu9ng Impact on the Datacenter Market 1. What’s changing in the datacenter world 2. Who we are 3. Cloud Compu9ng in Context 4. The Virtualiza9on eﬀect on datacenters 5. Where to Next?
Cloud Criteria vs. Architecture Cloud Criteria Cloud Architecture þ Publically Accessible þ Programmatic management 4 Public Cloud Services interfaces þ Multi-tenant Architecture þ Accounting Granularity and 3 Private Enterprise Cloud Cost Allocation þ Scalability and elasticity þ Rich Web management 2 Cloud-like Enterprise Architecture capabilities þ Rapid Provisioning and Self Service 1 Modern Enterprise Architecture þ Virtualization and Hardware Independence
How far have we gone? § VKernel analyzed 550,000 virtual machines across 2500 deployments and found average consolida9on of 12.5-‐15.6 virtual machines per physical host (8-‐10 for larger organiza9ons). § Apps on virtual infrastructure will exceed those on physical servers > 50% 41%-‐50% 31%-‐40% 21%-‐30% 11%-‐20% 2010 5%-‐10% 2011 < 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Impact on the Next Genera9on Data Center • The de facto “atomic unit” in the next genera9on datacenter is the virtual machine. • Increased focus on IT governance (i.e.: ITIL), otherwise inevitable VM sprawl will result in every trivial process having its own server (and OS license). • No labeling servers with s9cky nametags. Rack once, never touch again – “fail in place” (Google rack) approach. Less reac9ve break/ﬁx management, more proac9ve/rou9ne/scheduled.
Impact on the Next Genera9on Data Center • Movement towards “best execu9on environment” approach to IT, hybrid balancing act of CapEx vs. OpEx via on-‐premise and oﬀ-‐premise. • Almost all servers – even systems that are absolutely mission cri9cal -‐ will eventually be virtualized, even if at a 1:1 ra9o.
Vmo9on & 2nd order eﬀects of Virtualiza9on • Signiﬁcant implica9ons for IT… • Reduced “maintenance window” down9me for cri9cal applica9ons. • More op9ons for hot BC/DR needs
Power density and cooling challenges § 42U’s worth of servers at 5-‐15% u9liza9on has diﬀerent power demand than 42U’s worth of servers at 70-‐80+% u9liza9on. § Overall power usage in a virtualized environment decreases, but density increases.
Power density and cooling challenges Dell example § PowerEdge 2650 running a test workload at 30% CPU consumed 290 wams. § Consolidated eight (8) of those systems onto a single PowerEdge 2950, reaching 80% of CPU. System consumed 440 wams at sustained load. § Net power savings 2,320 – 440 = 1,880 § However, original load was in 16U for 145 wams/U. New load of 440 in 2U is 220 wams/U. >50% increase. 6kW/rack -‐> 9.2kW/rack. Jevon’s Paradox, 1865/Rebound eﬀect: Technological progress that increases the eﬃciency with which a resource is used tends to increase the rate of consumpAon of that resource.
Pondering the Next Genera9on Data Center • Planning for the future? • APC Virtualiza9on Energy Cost Calculator • Visio 2007 Add-‐In for Rack Server Virtualiza9on
Pondering the Next Genera9on Data Center “Accordion IT” § VMware Distributed Resource Scheduler (DRS) paired with Distributed Power Management (DPM) can automa9cally shuﬄe virtualized machines between hosts, consolidate to as few hosts as needed during low u9liza9on, and power oﬀ physical machines when not needed. “Migratory IT” § Take “Accordion IT”, and then add geographic migra9on across datacenters/states based on electricity spot pricing (i.e.: “follow the moon”). Cisco Overlay Transport Virtualiza9on. § Intelligent integra9on of VM controls and datacenter facility controls -‐ if all VMs are moved out of a sec9on of datacenter and servers powered down, no need to cool it.
Pondering the Next Genera9on Data Center Other interes9ng possibili9es? § Virtual servers ﬂy around the data center, risk overloading a circuit? Traveling hot spots? § Fanless servers? Microso^ is trying to experiment with that, disrupts PUE -‐ but less power consumed for equivalent compute load. Rackable (SGI) “CloudRack”. § Pulse width modula9on (PWM) on server fans • Facebook is trying that out in conjunc9on with cold aisle containment & other improvements.
Cloud Compu9ng Impact on the Datacenter Market 1. What’s changing in the datacenter world 2. Who we are 3. Cloud Compu9ng in Context 4. The Virtualiza9on eﬀect on datacenters 5. Where to Next with Cloud Compu9ng?
Winners in the Cloud hmp://www.cloudgirlfriend.com/
Future IT Topology Inves9ga9on of Cloud Compu9ng Enterprise InternalYes Based on External ServicesNo Both 2H 09 2H 09 1H 10 1H 10 2H 10 2H 10 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Ini9ator of Cloud Projects Who put your organiza9ons cloud project in mo9on? IT Data Center CIO LOB CTO IT So^ware CEO 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Final Cloud W2: Full Sample. n=51.