A is for iCar

Why I think Apple’s next product has 4 wheels. by Dan Roam A is for iCar

The other day, I got to thinking…

Appleis theworld’srichestcompany. That’s a lot of cheddar.

But Apple has a problem. It’s a wormhole!

Part One The Apple Problem.

Applehastoo much money. I believe that our best creativity comes from constraint.When we’ve accumulatedmore than enough of any resource, two things happen: 1)We get more cautious. (We have more to lose.) 2)We have a harder time making decisions. (When we can do anything, it’s hard to know which things to do.) How much is too much?

See,Apple existsto changetheworld. Because the ones who are crazy enough to think that they can change the world, are the ones who do. - Steve Jobs (1955-2011)

That’sApple’sDNA. Thiswasnever “justanotherPC.” Norwasthis. Thiswasnever “justanotherMP4player.” Thiswasnever “justanotherphone.” Thiswasnever “justanothertablet.”

So,whatchangestheworld? Oooo! Show me show me show me!!

Awatch?Seriously? You want me to buy a what?

There’smoreatstakeherethanawatch. I’m feeling let down.

TimCook needs to provehegetsit. He’s great with the $$$, but…

JonyIveneeds a newpassionproject. And a hug!

AndAppleisjust too quiet.

PartTwo Rumorhatessilence.

Therumormill isspinning.

What’sit spinning?It’swheels.

What’sbehindtherumors? It sure feels like there’s something here… Reports emerged this week… an electric car… Apple’s plans are unclear and unconfirmed … a few hundred people to work… And now there is speculation that the company is working on a car… surely be designed in the famous studio where Ive and his colleagues work. Autos have become the latest obsession for Silicon Valley, with Apple assigning about 200 people to work on an electric vehicle technology… Investors have long dreamed of Apple acquiring Tesla Motors, given the disruptive characteristics and cultural similarities between the two companies.

AndfromApple, justmoresilence.

PartThree WhatApplereallydoes. (Thatfewotherscan.)

Appledesigns. Apple is the greatest product design and business design* company in industrial history. *This part tends to be forgotten in all our excitement about the toys, but it is the real reason Apple continually surprises the skeptics.

Applemakesmanufacturinghappen. A huge part of Apple’s successis the company’s ability to effectively outsource high-quality manufacturing.

Applekicks‘supplychain’. Nobody is better than Appleat integrating every step of the industrial process, from beginning to end. Appledelivers exactly what it says it is going to deliver exactly when it saysit will.

Applemarkets. No company has ever established the cult-like connection with customersthat Apple has. Calling what Apple does “marketing”is like calling the Pacific Ocean a ‘big puddle.’ Laaaa! Laaaa!

Applemakesmarkets. Speaking of oceans, Appleexcels at finding blue oceans* that other companies – other industries, actually – seem to miss. *Blue Ocean is the business-speak term for an untapped new growth opportunity.

Appleunderstands. Enough said.

PartFour Meanwhile,backinDetroit…

Theauto guys seemclueless. “If there were a rumor that Mercedes planned to start building smartphones, then Apple would not be sleepless at night. And the same applies to me.” - Dieter Zetsche, Chairman Daimler AG *and former CEO Daimler-Chrysler. (And who just lost his head of North American R&D to… Apple.) “We take steel, raw steel, and turn it into car. They have no idea what they're getting into if they get into that.” -Dan Akerson, former CEO General Motors “Absolutely silly.” - Praveen Narayanan, automotive research manager at Frost & Sullivan

Theautoguysareright,butinthewrongway. Detroit says, “Cars are about bending metal & that'shard.” Sure, but that assumes a 100 year old business model. A better way to think outside that iron box is to ask a few questions… Q: What is the Amazon of taxis? A: Uber Q: What is the iTunes of commuting? A: Zip car Don't ask, ‘How heavy is iron?’ Ask, ‘What is purpose of a car?’ If the purposeof a car is to get me from A-to-B with convenience, comfort and style, then car ownership is the business to disrupt. I suspect that’s the business Appleis thinking about. (Yes,asacar-guy,ItotallygetthatIneedto own.ButIusedtosaythataboutmoviesand musictoo.)

Thisringsa bell. “There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance.” - Steve Ballmer, 2007 “It’s a nice reader, but there’s nothing on the iPad I look at and say, ‘Oh, I wish Microsoft had done it.” - Bill Gates, 2010

Here’saword: Tesla. Okay,it won’t be profitable until 2020, but comeon, Detroit – takea hint! • A Silicon Valley start-up. • No previousauto manufacturing experience. • Breakthrough technology. • All electric. • Beautiful design. • Peoplewith moneywant it.

Whathappenedto Detroit’s emotionalintelligence? 1953 Chevrolet Corvette 1965 Ford Mustang

PartFive Whatwill theproductlook like?

Arectanglewithroundcorners. “Well, circles and ovals are good, but how about drawing rectangles with rounded corners? Rectangles with rounded corners are everywhere!” - Steve Jobs

“Theprojectiscodenamed‘Titan,’ andit ‘resemblesa minivan.’” - The Wall Street Journal, Feb 13, 2015

IpredicttheTitanwillbeacubic, 4-doorminivanwithlotsofglass. I think Titan will look like… Dan Roam

Iimaginesomethingincrediblysimple. A rectangle with rounded corners. Dan Roam

WithtypicalApplepolish,thiselemental designcouldbebeautiful. It’s an iPhone on wheels! Dan Roam

It’sasimpleriffonthissuccessfultheme: Why not? They are all rounded cubes – and are the bestselling cars among hipsters…

Orthis. (With sincere love and apologies to Richard Scarry.)

PartSix Whatwill thebusinesslook like?

Thekeywill be thebusinessmodel. Those who know technology know that the products Apple makes aren’t really the key to their success. What has been more critical is Apple’s ability to use their products to redefine entire businesses. Whether music and movie licensing and distribution, the creation of the app universe, or redefining publishing, Applemakes most of its money by making those new markets.

Appleproductscreatenewindustries. Thisthingchangedgraphic design,whichinturnchanged printing,whichchanged publishing,whichintime createdanewindustrycalled “interactiondesign.” Thisthingchangedalbum-oriented musicbyofferingon-demand singles,whichchangedhowmusic isproduced,whichchangedhow musicislicensed,whichchanged howmusicissold. Thisthingchanged softwaredevelopmentby offeringanonlineapp market,whichchanged howsoftwareiscreated, whichchangedhowtech companiesattract investors,whichchanged howcapitalflowsinthe techsector.

I’dexpectthesamethingfromiCar. When the Detroit CEOs and experts say, “Cars are about bending iron and that’s hard,” they’re right. But they miss the point. Apple isn’t interested in bending iron; Apple is interested in distorting reality.

2020visionrequired. What AirBnb is doing to Marriott. What will Apple’s iCar do to Detroit, Stuttgart, and Toyota City? What Uber is doing to Yellow. What Amazon did to Borders. What iTunes did to Tower Records. What Starbucks did to every café in the world.

PartSeven Inthedriver’sseat.

SteveJobs’car.

JonyIve’scars.

Yourcar.

Availablein: White Silver Black Dan Roam

And onemorething… Objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.

Dan Roam is a car nut, a computer nut, and a design nut. He also writes picture books for businesspeople. www.danroam.com

BTW, I’d love to show you how to make presentations like this one: www.napkinacademy.com

Sources • Bloomberg Business, Nov. 25, 2014. “Apple Tops 700 Billion…” by Tim Higgins, Joseph Ciolli, Callie Bost • The New Yorker, Feb. 23, 2015. “The Shape of Things to Come.” by Ian Parker. • The New Yorker online, Feb. 24, 2015. “Could Jony Ive Pull off and Apple Car?” by John Cassidy. • Business Insider, Aug 4, 2014. “Tim Cook Will Have to Prove Himself…” by Steve Kovach. • The Economist, Feb. 21, 2015. “Upsetting the Apple Car.” • Marketplace Radio, Feb. 20, 2015. “Will Apple Put the Pedal to the Metal?” by Nova Safo • Bloomberg Business, Feb 18, 2015. “Apple Hairball?...” by Tim Higgins • Medium.com, Feb. 18, 2015. “Apple will buy Tesla…” by Jason Calacanis (@jason)