1. Ten Key Questions Facing the Private Equity World David Rubenstein Co-founder & Managing Director February 27, 2008
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3. 1. Will Leverage for Buyouts Return in Time for PE Investors and Professionals to Stay with the Industry?
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7. 2. Are There Going to be Major Defaults from Buyouts Completed within the "Golden Age"?
8. Leverage Levels Are at Historical Highs 1997 1999 1998 2002 2001 2000 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Average Large LBO Leverage Multiples (Debt/EBITDA) Source: S&P Leveraged Buyout Review Note: Includes issuers with EBITDA of $50MM or more x
9. And Credit Ratios Are Depressed 2004 2005 2003 1997 2006 2007 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (EBITDA – Capex) / Cash Interest Source: S&P Leveraged Buyout Review x
10. Default Rates Have Remained Low Over the Past Three Years Percentage of Outstanding Leveraged Loans in Default or Bankruptcy Source: S&P LCD Avg. 3.80% %
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13. 3. What is Going to Happen to All of the Buyout Debt Still Held by the Major Syndicating Banks?
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15. 4. What Areas Will PE Firms Pursue to Achieve the Types of Returns Sought by Their Investors?
22. Top Quartile PE Returns Are Unrivalled Source: Thomson Venture Economics Note: PE data as of 30 June 2007; Bloomberg, market data as of 30 June 2007 Top Quartile US Buyout Returns IRR % 6.1% 5.7% 5.4% 18.2% 21.8% 12.2% 7.7% 8.7% 22.1% 20.4% 19.9% 20.3% 18.4% 28.5% 32.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% NASDAQ DJIA S&P 500 Top Quartile >$2Bn Top Quartile U.S. Buyout 10-year 5-year 1-year
23. Top Quartile PE Returns Are Unrivalled Source: Thomson Venture Economics Note: PE data as of 30 June 2007; Bloomberg, market data as of 30 June 2007 Top Quartile European Buyout Returns 7.6% Top Quartile Eu. Buyout FTSE 100 CAC-40 1-year 10-year 5-year
24. 6. Is Now the Right Time for Investors to Pursue Private Equity Investments?
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26. 7. Will Regulators and Legislators Continue to Seek Changes in PE Regulation, Oversight and Taxation?
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28. 8. Will Sovereign Wealth Funds Replace PE Firms as Principal Sources of Capital for Corporations/Sellers Seeking New Capital?
29. PE Firms Pale in Comparison to the Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds Top Sovereign Wealth Funds Source: Citigroup
30. Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment Activity Has Increased Dramatically Value of Deals 2007 Number of Deals 2006 Deal Volume ($Bn) # of Deals 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2003 2005 + 1,151% Sovereign Wealth Fund Deal Volume Sources: World Economic Forum, Thomson Financial
31. But These Investments Still Represent A Tiny Proportion of Total M&A Activity 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 1997 Breakdown of Global M&A Activity ($Bn) Sources: World Economic Forum, Thomson Financial Sovereign Wealth Funds Strategic Private Equity
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33. 9. Can the PE Industry Improve its Image with the Public, Media, Governments, Unions, Environmental and Consumer Groups?
34. Private Equity’s Image Could be Better Gluttons at the Gate Private equity are using slick new tricks to gorge on corporate assets. A story of excess – Business Week A Backlash Against Private Equity Grumbling by unions over post-deal job cuts has escalated into a public outcry – Business Week
35. 10. Is PE's Future Going to Be Better, Bigger, and Stronger than Before, Or Have We Already Seen the High-water Mark?
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37. What I Was Supposed to Talk About: “Giving Private Equity a Positive Image: Why is there such Disparity Between the Public’s Perception of the Industry and the Industry’s Perception of Itself, and What can be done to bring these Views into Alignment”
38. The Current Situation Perception of the Industry outside the Industry Destroyed Jobs Relocated Facilities Overseas Focused Only on Short-Term Profits Left Companies in Worse Shape Made Too Much Money for PE Professionals Insufficient Level of Taxes Paid Perception of the Industry within the Industry Improved operation of companies Prevented job losses; created jobs Improved Economies Created High Returns for Investors/Pension Funds Paid Large Amount of Taxes Created an Industry
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41. Ten Leading Questions Facing the Private Equity World David Rubenstein Co-founder & Managing Director February 27, 2008