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Ten Key Questions Facing the  Private Equity World   David Rubenstein Co-founder & Managing Director  February 27, 2008
Questions for Audience: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1. Will Leverage for Buyouts Return in Time for PE Investors and Professionals to Stay with the Industry?
Leveraged Loan Volumes Will Recover  ,[object Object],1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2004 2003 2005 2006 2002 2007 US Buyout Leveraged Loan Volume ($Bn) + 1,929% Source: S&P Leveraged Buyout Review
Leveraged Loan Volumes Will Recover  ,[object Object],European Buyout Leveraged Loan Volume ( € Bn) Source: S&P LCD 2005 2006 2001 2002 2007 2000 2003 1999 2004
But This Will Not Happen Overnight  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: S&P Leveraged Buyout Review
2. Are There Going to be Major Defaults from Buyouts Completed within the "Golden Age"?
Leverage Levels Are at Historical Highs  1997 1999 1998 2002 2001 2000 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Average Large LBO Leverage Multiples (Debt/EBITDA) Source: S&P Leveraged Buyout Review Note: Includes issuers with EBITDA of $50MM or more  x
And Credit Ratios Are Depressed  2004 2005 2003 1997 2006 2007 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (EBITDA – Capex) / Cash Interest Source: S&P Leveraged Buyout Review  x
Default Rates Have Remained Low Over the Past Three Years  Percentage of Outstanding Leveraged Loans in Default or Bankruptcy Source: S&P LCD  Avg.  3.80% %
And Remain Below Levels Seen During Past Market Downturns  ,[object Object],Source: Morgan Stanley
But the Trading Levels of Many LBO Debt Deals Suggest Defaults are Likely  ,[object Object],Source: Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index
3. What is Going to Happen to All of the Buyout Debt Still Held by the Major Syndicating Banks?
A Massive Backlog Remains  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Morgan Stanley
4. What Areas Will PE Firms Pursue to Achieve the Types of Returns Sought by Their Investors?
PE Firms Will Invest More in Emerging Markets  ,[object Object],2007 2006 2004 2003 2005 Emerging Asia ($Bn) 2005 2004 2003 2006 2007 CEE/Russia ($Bn) 2006 2003 2004 2005 2007 Latin America ($Bn) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Middle East & Africa ($Bn) 11.4 Source: EMPEA
PE Firms Will Invest More in Emerging Markets  ,[object Object],Emerging Asia ($Bn) CEE/Russia ($Bn) Latin America ($Bn) Middle East & Africa ($Bn) Source: Morgan Stanley, Thomson  2003 2004 2005 2006 54.5 1H 2007 10.5 1H 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2003 2004 2005 2007 5.9 2006 2003 32.2 2005 2006 2007 2004 24.9
PE Firms Will Invest More in Emerging Markets  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Morgan Stanley, Thomson
Private Equity Firms Will Make More Minority Investments  ,[object Object],Source: Dealogic  ,[object Object],[object Object]
And They Will Commit More Capital to Distressed Investments  ,[object Object],Source: Private Equity Analyst,  data as of 6/30/07; Fitch Ratings, data as of July 2007
5. Should Investors in PE Expect Higher or Lower Rates of Return?
Top Quartile PE Returns Are Unrivalled  Source: Thomson Venture Economics Note: PE data as of 30 June 2007; Bloomberg, market data as of 30 June 2007 Top Quartile US Buyout Returns  IRR % 6.1% 5.7% 5.4% 18.2% 21.8% 12.2% 7.7% 8.7% 22.1% 20.4% 19.9% 20.3% 18.4% 28.5% 32.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% NASDAQ DJIA S&P 500 Top Quartile >$2Bn Top Quartile U.S. Buyout 10-year 5-year 1-year
Top Quartile PE Returns Are Unrivalled  Source: Thomson Venture Economics Note: PE data as of 30 June 2007; Bloomberg, market data as of 30 June 2007 Top Quartile European Buyout Returns  7.6% Top Quartile  Eu. Buyout FTSE 100 CAC-40 1-year 10-year 5-year
6. Is Now the Right Time for Investors to Pursue Private Equity Investments?
PE Funds Raised During Times of Market Distress Generally Perform Well ,[object Object],Top Quartile Private Equity IRRs by Vintage   Source: Thomson Venture Expert Note: IRRs are cumulative and are calculated from inception to 9/30/07
7. Will Regulators and Legislators Continue to Seek Changes in PE Regulation, Oversight and Taxation?
The PE Industry Faces Various Legislative and Regulatory Proposals  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
8. Will Sovereign Wealth Funds Replace PE Firms as Principal Sources of Capital for Corporations/Sellers Seeking New Capital?
PE Firms Pale in Comparison to the Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds  Top Sovereign Wealth Funds Source: Citigroup
Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment Activity Has Increased Dramatically  Value of Deals 2007 Number of Deals 2006 Deal Volume ($Bn) # of Deals 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2003 2005 + 1,151% Sovereign Wealth Fund Deal Volume  Sources: World Economic Forum, Thomson Financial
But These Investments Still Represent A Tiny Proportion of Total M&A Activity 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 1997 Breakdown of Global M&A Activity ($Bn)   Sources: World Economic Forum, Thomson Financial  Sovereign Wealth Funds Strategic Private Equity
Sovereign Wealth Funds and PE Firms Are Forming a Productive Partnership  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
9. Can the PE Industry Improve its Image with the Public, Media, Governments, Unions, Environmental and Consumer Groups?
Private Equity’s Image Could be Better  Gluttons at the Gate Private equity are using slick new tricks to gorge on corporate assets. A story of excess   –   Business Week A Backlash Against Private Equity Grumbling by unions over post-deal job cuts has escalated into a public outcry –   Business Week
10. Is PE's Future Going to Be Better, Bigger, and Stronger than Before, Or Have We Already Seen the High-water Mark?
It’s Always Darkest Just Before Dawn  ,[object Object],2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 # of Deals Deal Volume ($Bn) 1997 Deal Volume # of Deals 1996 1995 Global LBO Activity   Source: Dealogic CAGR: 31%
What I Was Supposed to Talk About:  “Giving Private Equity a Positive Image: Why is there such Disparity Between the Public’s Perception of the Industry and the Industry’s Perception of Itself, and What can be done to bring these Views into Alignment”
The Current Situation  Perception of the Industry outside the Industry Destroyed Jobs Relocated Facilities Overseas Focused Only on Short-Term Profits Left Companies in Worse Shape Made Too Much Money for PE Professionals Insufficient Level of Taxes Paid Perception of the Industry within the Industry Improved operation of companies Prevented job losses; created jobs Improved Economies Created High Returns for Investors/Pension Funds Paid Large Amount of Taxes Created an Industry
Why the Disparity in Perceptions?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What Can the Industry Do to Improve Its Image?  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Ten Leading Questions Facing the Private Equity World   David Rubenstein Co-founder & Managing Director  February 27, 2008

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David Rubenstein Final V3

  • 1. Ten Key Questions Facing the Private Equity World David Rubenstein Co-founder & Managing Director February 27, 2008
  • 2.
  • 3. 1. Will Leverage for Buyouts Return in Time for PE Investors and Professionals to Stay with the Industry?
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. 2. Are There Going to be Major Defaults from Buyouts Completed within the "Golden Age"?
  • 8. Leverage Levels Are at Historical Highs 1997 1999 1998 2002 2001 2000 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Average Large LBO Leverage Multiples (Debt/EBITDA) Source: S&P Leveraged Buyout Review Note: Includes issuers with EBITDA of $50MM or more x
  • 9. And Credit Ratios Are Depressed 2004 2005 2003 1997 2006 2007 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (EBITDA – Capex) / Cash Interest Source: S&P Leveraged Buyout Review x
  • 10. Default Rates Have Remained Low Over the Past Three Years Percentage of Outstanding Leveraged Loans in Default or Bankruptcy Source: S&P LCD Avg. 3.80% %
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. 3. What is Going to Happen to All of the Buyout Debt Still Held by the Major Syndicating Banks?
  • 14.
  • 15. 4. What Areas Will PE Firms Pursue to Achieve the Types of Returns Sought by Their Investors?
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. 5. Should Investors in PE Expect Higher or Lower Rates of Return?
  • 22. Top Quartile PE Returns Are Unrivalled Source: Thomson Venture Economics Note: PE data as of 30 June 2007; Bloomberg, market data as of 30 June 2007 Top Quartile US Buyout Returns IRR % 6.1% 5.7% 5.4% 18.2% 21.8% 12.2% 7.7% 8.7% 22.1% 20.4% 19.9% 20.3% 18.4% 28.5% 32.1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% NASDAQ DJIA S&P 500 Top Quartile >$2Bn Top Quartile U.S. Buyout 10-year 5-year 1-year
  • 23. Top Quartile PE Returns Are Unrivalled Source: Thomson Venture Economics Note: PE data as of 30 June 2007; Bloomberg, market data as of 30 June 2007 Top Quartile European Buyout Returns 7.6% Top Quartile Eu. Buyout FTSE 100 CAC-40 1-year 10-year 5-year
  • 24. 6. Is Now the Right Time for Investors to Pursue Private Equity Investments?
  • 25.
  • 26. 7. Will Regulators and Legislators Continue to Seek Changes in PE Regulation, Oversight and Taxation?
  • 27.
  • 28. 8. Will Sovereign Wealth Funds Replace PE Firms as Principal Sources of Capital for Corporations/Sellers Seeking New Capital?
  • 29. PE Firms Pale in Comparison to the Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds Top Sovereign Wealth Funds Source: Citigroup
  • 30. Sovereign Wealth Fund Investment Activity Has Increased Dramatically Value of Deals 2007 Number of Deals 2006 Deal Volume ($Bn) # of Deals 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2003 2005 + 1,151% Sovereign Wealth Fund Deal Volume Sources: World Economic Forum, Thomson Financial
  • 31. But These Investments Still Represent A Tiny Proportion of Total M&A Activity 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 1997 Breakdown of Global M&A Activity ($Bn) Sources: World Economic Forum, Thomson Financial Sovereign Wealth Funds Strategic Private Equity
  • 32.
  • 33. 9. Can the PE Industry Improve its Image with the Public, Media, Governments, Unions, Environmental and Consumer Groups?
  • 34. Private Equity’s Image Could be Better Gluttons at the Gate Private equity are using slick new tricks to gorge on corporate assets. A story of excess – Business Week A Backlash Against Private Equity Grumbling by unions over post-deal job cuts has escalated into a public outcry – Business Week
  • 35. 10. Is PE's Future Going to Be Better, Bigger, and Stronger than Before, Or Have We Already Seen the High-water Mark?
  • 36.
  • 37. What I Was Supposed to Talk About: “Giving Private Equity a Positive Image: Why is there such Disparity Between the Public’s Perception of the Industry and the Industry’s Perception of Itself, and What can be done to bring these Views into Alignment”
  • 38. The Current Situation Perception of the Industry outside the Industry Destroyed Jobs Relocated Facilities Overseas Focused Only on Short-Term Profits Left Companies in Worse Shape Made Too Much Money for PE Professionals Insufficient Level of Taxes Paid Perception of the Industry within the Industry Improved operation of companies Prevented job losses; created jobs Improved Economies Created High Returns for Investors/Pension Funds Paid Large Amount of Taxes Created an Industry
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41. Ten Leading Questions Facing the Private Equity World David Rubenstein Co-founder & Managing Director February 27, 2008