Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Making Better Decisions: Operational Research

151 views

Published on

Designed to motivate potential A level maths students to study the further maths and decision maths option. Delivered at Denbigh School, Milton Keynes 6th July 2016 as a volunteer in the Operational Research Society OR in Schools programme (http://www.theorsociety.com/Pages/PromotingInvesting/ORinSchools.aspx). The session was lead by the Further Maths Support Program (www.furthermaths.org.uk).

Published in: Education
  • Although I'm a KS3 student, I decided to give Jeevan's guide a try because I know GCSE and KS3 are fairly similar. Looking back now, it was one of the best decisions I made. The guide has helped me jump from a level 6A to a level 8C in maths, and I'm only in year 8! Achieving a level 8 in maths is regarded as a gifted individual. Thank you for this terrific guide and I will recommend it to anyone taking a maths exam! ●●● http://tinyurl.com/yylfxaqo
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here

Making Better Decisions: Operational Research

  1. 1. Making Better Decisions: Operational Research Daniel Sandars, BSc (Hons) MSc AFORS MIAgrM:CEnv Research Fellow, Cranfield University Denbigh School, Wednesday 6th July 2016
  2. 2. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 2 My Message
  3. 3. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 3 Why? It is useful •As a Decisions Professional aka Operational Researcher, or •In every profession and vocation due to need for good decisions skills, and •Good decision skills are good life skills
  4. 4. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 4 Career Attributes 1. Financial security 2. Growth opportunities 3. Enjoyment 4. Variety & Flexibilty
  5. 5. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 5 Me as AFORS MIAgrM:CEnv Research Fellow 1995+ 1990 BSc Agriculture 1994 MSc Applied Environmental Science 2004 MSc Operational Research
  6. 6. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 6 How do you choose? 1. Peer pressure? 2. Rule of thumb? 3. Gut Instinct? 4. Pseudo science? 5. Methodically/ Scientifically?
  7. 7. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 7 Problem Solving Cycle Problem? Evidence & options Analyse Decide Act Evaluate & Learn
  8. 8. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 8 Operational Research ∞Operational Research (O.R.) is the application of mathematical methods to tackle real-life problems associated with decision- making in businesses and other enterprises. ∞O.R. combines to provide the means for making more informed and better decisions. A way of thinking & communicating + Analytical techniques
  9. 9. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 9 Origins of O.R. ∞World War II Video Courtesy of : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2GdWgzXrys √ German U-Boats targeted merchant ships bound for Britain, which were loaded with important goods. √ The British Royal Navy decided to respond by deploying warships within convoys of merchant ships in order to offer vital protection.
  10. 10. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 10 Origins of O.R. ∞ Travel faster than large convoys and may evade the threat of combat ∞ Slower than a small convoy but heavily armed to fight off an attack
  11. 11. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 11 Origins of O.R. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 %RATEOFSUCCESS NUMBER OF WARSHIPS IN CONVOY
  12. 12. Bullet holes and Bombers www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 12
  13. 13. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 13 When is O.R. useful? ∞ When a decision is complex or it’s not clear what the main problem is ∞ When it’s uncertain what the outcome of different actions will be ∞ When you don’t know how well things are working or think they could work better ∞ When you are worried about risks ∞ When you need to take account of the views of different stakeholder groups
  14. 14. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 14 How is O.R. useful? ∞Optimisation is a way to solve problems in which one seeks to achieve the best outcome. ∞Simulation allows you to try out different approaches by simulating events numerous times and answer the “What if…?” question. ∞Queuing theory is used to approximate a real queuing situation or system, so the queuing behaviour can be analysed mathematically. ∞Other techniques include: Forecasting Heuristics Data Mining Soft Systems Methodology Statistics Multi-Criteria Methods Cognitive Mapping System Dynamics
  15. 15. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 15 Is O.R. rewarding? ∞Starting Salaries £20,000-28,000 ∞Senior Operational Researchers £40,000 - £80,000 ∞Self-employed or top Consultants £100,000+
  16. 16. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 16 Practical Exercise ∞ 1st person in the line, look at the person on your left. ∞ If you are taller, swap. ∞ 2nd person in the line, look at the person on your left. ∞ If you are taller, swap. ∞ 3rd person in the line, look at the person on your left. ∞ If you are taller, swap. ∞ And so on…until you reach the end of the line. ∞ The last person in the line should now be the tallest and can turn around. ∞ Start again. The end of the line is the person next to someone who has turned around.
  17. 17. Bubble Sort Dance www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 17
  18. 18. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 18 Real-life applications of maths
  19. 19. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 19 Real-life applications of maths
  20. 20. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 20 Real-life applications of maths
  21. 21. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 21 Real-life applications of maths
  22. 22. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 22 Cost of computer memory
  23. 23. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 23 Speed of computers
  24. 24. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 24 Growth of big data
  25. 25. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 25 What makes O.R. Fun? •Mathematical aptitude? •Is your brain Ravenous? • Thirst for gleaning knowledge and understanding out of data? • Hunger for better innovative solutions to puzzles •Make the world a better place?
  26. 26. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 26 What makes O.R. Fun?
  27. 27. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 27 Societal challenges 1. Health, demographics changes and well being 2. Food security, sustainable agriculture, marine and maritime research and the bio-economy 3. Secure, clean and efficient energy 4. Smart, green and integrated transport 5. Climate action and resource efficiency including raw materials 6. Inclusive, innovative and secure societies 7. Secure societies – protecting freedom and security of Europe and its citizens
  28. 28. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 28 Real-life applications of maths ∞ O.R. is the maths inside Supermarkets √ Determining the number of staff needed on checkouts and at when √ Calculating order quantities and delivery times √ Understanding people’s buying patterns
  29. 29. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 29 Real-life applications of maths ∞ O.R. is the maths inside Sport √ One day cricket √ Scheduling football games √ Designing and building a new stadium ∞ Case Study: Formula One √ The Challenge ≥ Determine optimal pit stop strategy √ The O.R. Solution ≥ Game theory and simulation √ The Value ≥ Ability to account for influential factors and increase probability of winning the race
  30. 30. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 30 Real-life applications of maths ∞ Other examples include: √ Your Phone Tariff √ Your Local Government √ Your Gas Supply √ Your Local Factory √ Your Airline Flight √ Your Pint of Milk √ Your Doctor’s Surgery √ Your Wages
  31. 31. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 31 Where can O.R. take you? ∞ O.R. is an evolving discipline because the world is ever-changing. O.R. departments are firmly embedded within large businesses across most industries: √ Manufacturing √ Transport √ Retailing √ Marketing √ Financial Sector √ Service Sector √ Local/Central Government
  32. 32. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 32 Where can O.R. take you? ∞ O.R. is a profession where initiative, creativity and enthusiasm are equally as important as technical ability. There is great scope for you to make your mark and, consequently, your future is very much in your own hands. ∞ O.R. teams are involved in projects which draw on a wide range of business skills and have dealings with anyone from shop floor to boardroom. ∞ As an Operational Researcher you will have the opportunity to undertake a variety of roles including: √ Analytical/consultancy √ Project management √ General management √ Lecturer/researcher
  33. 33. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 33 Interested? ∞ Next steps… √ Maths GCSE and A Level, Further Maths may be required at university √ Obtain a good classification in a numerate degree √ Join The OR Society – Student Membership is free! √ A Master’s in O.R. is often desirable, although not always essential √ Gain work experience while studying, e.g. via a summer placement or voluntary work during studies
  34. 34. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 34 Take Away Points Decision skills are everywhere Flexibility and Variety Financial security and growth Fun
  35. 35. www.TheORSociety.com www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk 35 Interested? ∞ Find out more… √ www.LearnAboutOR.co.uk √ www.ScienceofBetter.co.uk √ www.TheORSociety.com ∞ Get in touch… √ Education Officer Seymour House, 12 Edward Street, Birmingham, B1 2RX +44 (0)121 233 9300 charlene.timewell@theorsociety.com

×