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An agriculturalist’s Operational
Research perspective
Daniel Sandars; BSc(Hons.), 2xMSc, AFORS, MIAgrM:CEnv
6th
February 2...
Climax vegetation?
OR Prescriptive or Predictive?
Complex systems theory
Linear Programme SFarmMod
The case of 12 novel fibre crops
Environmental Quantification
The LCA Concept
The Environment
Production
System
Functional Unit
Natural
Resources
Manufactu...
Cradle to grave is fullest
application of LCA
Production
Processing
Distribution
Consumption / use
Disposal
Each step has ...
global
warming
ozone depletion
N2
O, CH4
acidification
drainage
Nutrient
Overload
Metals NO3
-
Run
off
BOD, PO4
3+
deposit...
Slurry tankers
Standard splash-
plate spreader
Over-the-fence broadcast
spreader
Low trajectory
splash-plate
spreader
Trai...
Slurry stores
Holsworthy Centralised
Anaerobic Digester
Controlling the N
Fig. 6.6 LCA predictions of the overall effects abating ammonia losses from land spreading of
digestate ...
Where does Agric. OR fit in?
EA 300502/ ./17
Detailed process
modelling
Macro-
economics
Complex system and
decision syste...
Agricultural Operational
Research Ecosystem
Additional resources
• Plà, L.M., Sandars, D.L., Higgins, A.J. A perspective on operational
research prospects for agricul...
Soils and Weather
Workable
hours
Profitability
(or loss)
Crop and livestock
outputs
Environmental
Impacts
Possible crops,
...
Heavy clay, 800 mm annual rainfall
0
50
100
150
200
250
7
Jan
7
Feb
7
M
ar
7
Apr
7
M
ay
7
Jun
7
Jul
7
Aug
7
Sep
7
O
ct
7
N...
Low gross margin crop
(Sown spring, harvested
September)
£370/ha versus £600-750/ha
Crop X
WRape
SBarley
WBarley
WWheat
Nitrate leaching scenarios on an arable sandy loam farm: crop
areas; profit; N leaching and N use
Profit = £456/ha
N leach...
Urban Crop
yields
Forestry
Flooding
Rural land
allocation
Hydrology
Biodiversity
Pests &
diseases
Water
use
Snow
cover
Wat...
Climsave: Nordic area
An agriculturalist's operational research career perspective
An agriculturalist's operational research career perspective
An agriculturalist's operational research career perspective
An agriculturalist's operational research career perspective
An agriculturalist's operational research career perspective
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An agriculturalist's operational research career perspective

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See the notes tab for annotations! A 25 minute career perspective given to 6th form Maths A-Level students at Kimberley College/ Wootton Academy, Bedfordshire

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An agriculturalist's operational research career perspective

  1. 1. An agriculturalist’s Operational Research perspective Daniel Sandars; BSc(Hons.), 2xMSc, AFORS, MIAgrM:CEnv 6th February 2015
  2. 2. Climax vegetation?
  3. 3. OR Prescriptive or Predictive?
  4. 4. Complex systems theory
  5. 5. Linear Programme SFarmMod The case of 12 novel fibre crops
  6. 6. Environmental Quantification The LCA Concept The Environment Production System Functional Unit Natural Resources Manufactured Inputs Emissions & wastes Boundary e.g. 1 kg Pig carcass or 1 kg bread wheat e.g. ammonia, carbon dioxide e.g. fertiliser, machinery, structures e.g. minerals, fossil energy, land Co-products, e.g. straw, manure
  7. 7. Cradle to grave is fullest application of LCA Production Processing Distribution Consumption / use Disposal Each step has is own set of inputs and outputs, like the production stage Farm gate
  8. 8. global warming ozone depletion N2 O, CH4 acidification drainage Nutrient Overload Metals NO3 - Run off BOD, PO4 3+ deposition ammonia pathogens odours Best environmental options?
  9. 9. Slurry tankers Standard splash- plate spreader Over-the-fence broadcast spreader Low trajectory splash-plate spreader Trailing pipe/shoe Sub-soil shallow injection spreader
  10. 10. Slurry stores
  11. 11. Holsworthy Centralised Anaerobic Digester
  12. 12. Controlling the N Fig. 6.6 LCA predictions of the overall effects abating ammonia losses from land spreading of digestate on Global Warming, Acidification and Eutrophication, each normalised with respect to current Western European environmental emissions inventory (Anon, 2005)
  13. 13. Where does Agric. OR fit in? EA 300502/ ./17 Detailed process modelling Macro- economics Complex system and decision system models Day Animal Plant Herd Crop RegionFarm EuropeNation Year Month Week Decade Control Tactical Policy Strategic
  14. 14. Agricultural Operational Research Ecosystem
  15. 15. Additional resources • Plà, L.M., Sandars, D.L., Higgins, A.J. A perspective on operational research prospects for agriculture (2014) Journal of the Operational Research Society, 65 (7), pp. 1078-1089. http://www.palgrave- journals.com/jors/journal/v65/n7/abs/jors201345a.html • Audsley, E., Sandars, D.L. A review of the practice and achievements from 50 years of applying OR to agricultural systems in Britain OR Insight (2009) 22, 2–18. doi:10.1057/ori.2008.1 http://www.palgrave- journals.com/ori/journal/v22/n1/full/ori20081a.html • Linear programming – Dantzig, George B. (1990). "The Diet Problem". Interfaces 20 (4): 43–7. doi:10.1287/inte.20.4.43 http://resources.mpi- inf.mpg.de/departments/d1/teaching/ws14/Ideen-der- Informatik/Dantzig-Diet.pdf
  16. 16. Soils and Weather Workable hours Profitability (or loss) Crop and livestock outputs Environmental Impacts Possible crops, yields, maturity dates, sowing dates Silsoe Whole Farm Model Linear programme, important features timeliness penalties, rotational penalties, workability per task, uncertainty Machines and people Constraints and penalties
  17. 17. Heavy clay, 800 mm annual rainfall 0 50 100 150 200 250 7 Jan 7 Feb 7 M ar 7 Apr 7 M ay 7 Jun 7 Jul 7 Aug 7 Sep 7 O ct 7 Nov 7 Dec Hours Sandy loam, 500 mm annual rainfall - 50 100 150 200 250 7 Jan 7 Feb 7 M ar 7 Apr 7 M ay 7 Jun 7 Jul 7 Aug 7 Sep 7 O ct 7 N ov 7 Dec Hours Workable hours v. tractor hours Period, fortnights Period, fortnights
  18. 18. Low gross margin crop (Sown spring, harvested September) £370/ha versus £600-750/ha Crop X WRape SBarley WBarley WWheat
  19. 19. Nitrate leaching scenarios on an arable sandy loam farm: crop areas; profit; N leaching and N use Profit = £456/ha N leach = 56.4 kg/ha N use = 123.7 kg/ha £430/ha 55.7 kg/ha 100 kg/ha £433/ha 44.9 kg/ha 168.5 kg/ha • N restricting policy increases Nitrate leaching - more spring crops increasing over- winter leaching • To decrease N leaching, grow crops which use the N applied efficiently Base N < 100kg/ha Opt Profit + N leach WW WB SB WR WBn RS Pots SBt Peas SR SBn More legumes. No Oilseed rape No legumes. No Oilseed rape
  20. 20. Urban Crop yields Forestry Flooding Rural land allocation Hydrology Biodiversity Pests & diseases Water use Snow cover Water availability Climate & socio-economic scenarios
  21. 21. Climsave: Nordic area

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