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Impact on Automation in Developing Countries: An Exploratory Foresight Exercise

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A look at how Automation could impact socio-economic conditions of developing countries, particularly in Indonesia. Most discussion about automation are specific to advanced economics (developed countries).

This was produced for Futures Research graduate class at the University of Houston as part of the MS in Foresight program.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Impact on Automation in Developing Countries: An Exploratory Foresight Exercise

  1. 1. Impact of Automation on Developing Countries AN EXPLORATORY FORESIGHT EXERCISE Daniel Riveong (Daniel.Riveong@Gmail.com), Futures Research Class, November 2016
  2. 2. Automation & Developing Economies Economic Models Automation Developmen ts Agricultu re Manufect uring Services Singapor e Ethopian Kenya India Farming Indoor Farming Business Processin g Outsourc ing Logistics Shenzhe n Lab Grown Food IN PARTNERSHIP WITH BAPPENAS, Indonesia’s Planning Agency Exploratory Futures Research: “Explore potential impact of automation on Indonesia and similar developing countries” “How could automation challenge existing paradigms for economic development?” Time Horizon 25 Year Horizon (2041) NOTE: Mock Client for Class Assignment
  3. 3. Key Trends & Signals – External Trends China & Automation ••Textile & Smartphone ••Investing $270B on robotics In-Sourcing & Automation ••Adidas brings back factories to Germany AI v. Knowledge Workers ••Watson can diagnosis cancer better, faster, cheaper Drone Delivery ••China is testing rural- urban delivery using drones
  4. 4. Key Trends & Signals - Local Level Gov't Focus on Manufacturing ••For job & economic growth ••Textiles, Smartphones, etc Over +30% Youth Malnutrition ••Mentally and physical stunting Poor Education Quality ••Only secondary education ••Poor quality uni-level education Digitalization of the Market Place ••Connect farmers with urban consumers
  5. 5. (Un)Steady as She Goes ••Baseline Scenario ••Current trajectory Abundance & Community ••Transformative Scenario ••A plausible, preferred future Exploring to Alternative Futures: Indonesia in 2041
  6. 6. BASELINE FUTURE in 2041 (Un)Steady as She Goes… Indonesia under the threat of Demographic Burdens, Automation & Deindustrialization
  7. 7. BASELINE FUTURE in 2041 (Un)Steady as She Goes… • Infrastructures Improves… Gov’t improves infrastructure – its ports, roads, rails and power • …And Gov’t Succeeds in Increasing GDP, but not Jobs. Government succeeds in increasing export manufacturing, but increased GDP not employment (due to automated factories) • Jobless Indonesian workers are too expensive, too unskilled • Too expensive for low-skilled jobs replaced by automation • Too unskilled for cognitively demanding jobs due to lack of education and being mentally stunted (childhood nutritional deficiency). Indonesia is burdened as a young country of over 340 million people, with little social mobility and high unemployment. KEY IMPICATION
  8. 8. Transformative Alternative Futures: STRETCHING! OUR THINKING.
  9. 9. TRANSFORMATIVE FUTURE in 2041 Abundance & Community An entrepreneurial, networked, and community-driven Indonesia
  10. 10. TRANSFORMATIVE FUTURE in 2041 Abundance & Community • Rural-Urban Integration with Digital Marketplaces & Drones Digital innovation empowers rural villages to engage in more equitable commerce with urban consumers. Drones “leapfrog” road infrastructure. • Government as Entrepreneurship Platform Gov’t nurturing of MSMEs, support for vocational schools and MOOCs spurs entrepreneurship & becomes main driver of job growth • Automation Creates Abundance Automation allows for cheap, locally made goods, enabling many to enjoy the latest gadgets and conveniences. Not highly economic development, but attains equitable growth, an integrated rural-urban society, and material abundance. KEY IMPLICATION
  11. 11. Baseline Future’s Key Implications
  12. 12. Baseline Future’s Key Implications End of Easy Growth Demographic Burden Stunted Mental Capacity ••Premature Deindustrialization closes the door on export-based growth ••Automation ••Globalization ••Gov’t needs to create 1.5 million jobs per year ••+30% of Indonesian Youth stunted ••Weak educational institutions, weak skills ••+30% of Indonesian Youth stunted due to malnutrition ••Poor diet ••Early motherhood
  13. 13. TACKLING IMPLICATIONS How can we increase the quality of the workforce?
  14. 14. HOW CAN WE INCREASE THE QUALITY OF THE WORKFORCE? Transform Education thru Partnerships Invite Top Foreign Institutions • Malaysia already has two MIT-related campuses, Singapore has INSEAD and Yale. • Partner with top schools and corporations to invest in education connected with apprenticeships English Language Training in Primary & Secondary School • Reintroduce English to our primary and secondary schools Vocational including MOOCs • Invest in vocational schools, including partnerships with MOOCs like Coursera and edX.org
  15. 15. TACKLING IMPLICATIONS How do we address Malnutrition & Stunted Mental Growth?
  16. 16. HOW DO WE ADDRESS MALNUTRITION & STUNTED MENTAL GROWTH? Reform Food Industry, Family Planning Reform Processed Foods & Halal Definition • Work with Halal-certifiers to redefine Halal to also mean nutritious. Work with food producers to fortify ready made food. Reenergize Family Planning • Work with religious organization and NGOs on delaying childbirth, to reduce changes of underweight babies. Innovative Prenatal Education • Work with smartphone companies to install prenatal- education apps on nutrition. • Work with religious organizations and NGOs to educate
  17. 17. The future is coming. We can choose… To be shaped by the future Or create our own.
  18. 18. Images Sources
  19. 19. Image Sources - 1 of 3 Slide 1 • "Bangladeshi RMG Sector." Wikipedia. June 26, 2012. Accessed August 31, 2017. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladeshi_RMG_Sector#/media/File:Garments_Factory_in_Bangladesh.JPG. CC BY-SA 3.0. Slide 3 • Jurvetson, Steve. "Tesla Robot Dance." Flickr. June 20, 2012. Accessed August 31, 2017. https://www.flickr.com/photos/jurvetson/7408451314/. CC BY 2.0. • Agencies. "Nike, Adidas lead suppliers' battle for gold." Nike, Adidas lead suppliers' battle for gold[1]. June 21, 2012. Accessed August 31, 2017. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/2012olympics/2012-06/21/content_15517621.htm. • IBM. "IBM's Watson Helps Employees Tackle Cancer." Medical Product Outsourcing. October 11, 2016. Accessed August 31, 2017. http://www.mpo-mag.com/contents/view_breaking-news/2016-10-11/ibms-watson-helps-employees-tackle-cancer. • Cheskyw. "Drone delivery cardboard package on white background." 123RF Stock Photos. Accessed September 01, 2017. https://www.123rf.com/photo_32981134_drone-delivery-cardboard-package-on-white-background.html. Slide 4 • Salazar, Andrea. “Afghan women at a textile factory in Kabul.jpg.” 17 January 2012. Accessed August 21, 2017. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Afghan_women_at_a_textile_factory_in_Kabul.jpg. Public Domain. • Surma, Vinsen. "Nutrition and the Children of West Timor." CWS. October 14, 2015. Accessed September 01, 2017. https://cwsglobal.org/nutrition-and-the-children-of-west-timor/. • Sai, Gabriel. "The Classroom." Flickr. June 24, 2008. Accessed September 01, 2017. https://www.flickr.com/photos/gabsch/2607036324. CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. • Vodafone Medien. "Mobiles Bezahlen mit Vodafone SmartPass." Flickr. July 10, 2015. Accessed September 01, 2017. https://www.flickr.com/photos/vodafone_de/19579727715.CC BY-ND 2.0.
  20. 20. Image Sources – 2 of 3 Slide 5 • Tjui Tjioe. "Group of Indonesian kids." 123RF Stock Photos. Accessed September 01, 2017. https://www.123rf.com/photo_7087364_group-of-indonesian-kids.html. Slide 6 • Song, Sophie. "Indonesia Labor Strike: Workers Demand Higher Salaries After Rising Inflation And Fuel Prices." International Business Times. October 31, 2013. Accessed September 01, 2017. http://www.ibtimes.com/indonesia-labor-strike-workers- demand-higher-salaries-after-rising-inflation-fuel-prices-1449894. Slide 7 • Song, Sophie. "Indonesia Labor Strike: Workers Demand Higher Salaries After Rising Inflation And Fuel Prices." International Business Times. October 31, 2013. Accessed September 01, 2017. http://www.ibtimes.com/indonesia-labor-strike-workers- demand-higher-salaries-after-rising-inflation-fuel-prices-1449894. Slide 8 • Wong, Tommy. "Ballet stretch." Flickr. November 12, 2006. Accessed September 01, 2017. https://www.flickr.com/photos/gracewong/295383565/. CC BY 2.0. Slide 9 • TaniHub Indonesia. (30 August 2016). What is Tanihub ??. Accessed 1 September 2017. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpR4V0IpSlg. Slide 10 • TaniHub Indonesia. (30 August 2016). What is Tanihub ??. Accessed 1 September 2017. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpR4V0IpSlg.
  21. 21. Image Sources – 3 of 3 Slide 11 • Song, Sophie. "Indonesia Labor Strike: Workers Demand Higher Salaries After Rising Inflation And Fuel Prices." International Business Times. October 31, 2013. Accessed September 01, 2017. http://www.ibtimes.com/indonesia-labor-strike-workers- demand-higher-salaries-after-rising-inflation-fuel-prices-1449894. Slide 13 • "Indonesia's fuel wager: After raising transportation fares, government prepares a safety net." Nikkei Asian Review. November 19, 2014. Accessed September 01, 2017. https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/Economy/After-raising- transportation-fares-government-prepares-a-safety-net. Slide 15 • Surma, Vinsen. "Nutrition and the Children of West Timor." CWS. October 14, 2015. Accessed September 01, 2017. https://cwsglobal.org/nutrition-and-the-children-of-west-timor/. Slide 17 • Weber, A. (2014, February 1). Human-Robot Collaboration Comes of Age. Retrieved September 01, 2017, from http://www.assemblymag.com/articles/91862-human-robot-collaboration-comes-of-age. • TaniHub Indonesia. (30 August 2016). What is Tanihub ??. Accessed 1 September 2017. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UpR4V0IpSlg. • Song, Sophie. "Indonesia Labor Strike: Workers Demand Higher Salaries After Rising Inflation And Fuel Prices." International Business Times. October 31, 2013. Accessed September 01, 2017. http://www.ibtimes.com/indonesia-labor-strike-workers- demand-higher-salaries-after-rising-inflation-fuel-prices-1449894.

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