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Blockchain in Four Futures

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Presented at Bitcoins in Bali, August 2017

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Blockchain in Four Futures

  1. 1. The Blockchain in Four Futures Daniel Riveong, 22 August 2017, v1
  2. 2. About Daniel Riveong • Foresight Consultant with UNICEF Malaysia, UNICEF Tajikistan, International Insurance Companies, etc Member of Association of Professional Futurists • MS in Foresight (expected May 2018) at the University of Houston Focus: Post-Capitalism, Developing Countries, Blockchain • Piloted a Data Science School in Jakarta Former Digital Marketing Consultant Yves Saint Laurent, Gucci, Balenciaga, Fitness First Asia, Wells Fargo, Western Union, Seagate Technologies, Microsoft, etc Former Developer & Data Analyst PHP, MySQL, R, Tableau, Python
  3. 3. Exploring Plausible Impacts Blockchain Centralization Glocal Citizenship Hyper-Self- Segregation Blockchained & Repressed +15 years Look-ahead
  4. 4. 1. Blockchain Centralization Business as Usual: Blockchain technologies are exploited by new & old elites, becoming part of established infrastructures
  5. 5. 1. SIGNALS Historical Patterns of New Technologies The Promise The Reality Radios for Hobbyists Corporate Monopoly Internet as Open Media Facebook, Amazon, Google Internet as Open Access Monopoly of ISPs Internet as Anonymous Big Data & Data Science Linux for Everyone iOS & Android Duopoly Sharing Economy Uber, AirBnb, WeWork, Mobike Public Blockchains… Centralized Blockchains?
  6. 6. 1. SIGNALS Elite Adoption of Blockchain Technology
  7. 7. 2. Glocal Citizenship People become more global with decentralized organizations and eCitizenships that granting access to legal systems and crypto-currencies regardless of geography and traditional nationality. Geographic Communities are empowered thanks to decentralized energy, complementary currencies, and localized e-residencies. Commerce Culture CommunityConnectivity Resilient, Collaborative & Open Communities?
  8. 8. 2. SIGNALS Decoupling & Collaboration Signals Values Shift Localism, Circular Economy, Social Enterprises Post-Nation State Citizenship Democracy Earth, Bitnation, Flux, e-Estonia Decentralized Organizations Attempts: DAO, Arcade City, Swarm City Complementary & UBI Currencies Bancor, CredditCommons, Community Forge, GrantCoins etc Decentralized Energy Power Ledger, Share & Charge etc
  9. 9. 3. Hyper-Self-Segregation Hyper-Self-Segregation occurs as a result of decentralization: • People opt for laws & communities based on religion, politics or other ideologies • Geography-based Communities declare quasi-independence via complementary currencies, eResidencies, decentralized energy, and so on.
  10. 10. 3. SIGNALS Polarization & Self-Segregation
  11. 11. 4. Blockchained & Repressed Media frenzy over an ICO scam, autonomous DOA disputes, and terrorism funded by cryptocurrency pushes governments to fully regulate and/or repress non-corporate owned blockchains. Blockchains are used by central banks, logistical chains et al, but gov’t scrutiny holds back innovation.
  12. 12. 4. SIGNALS Scandals, Fear & Gov’t Action with Crytocurrencies
  13. 13. “Amidst a backdrop of existing inertias, the future is ours to create.” - Thomas Frey
  14. 14. Appendix
  15. 15. Technology Trends Are NOT a Sure Thing Gartner Hype Cycle from 1995 Hype Cycle 1995
  16. 16. Exploring Plausible Futures

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