04 de cort

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Marc De Cort
"The EURDEP system during the Fukushima accident: data analysis and information exchange and the radiological consequences for Europe"

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04 de cort

  1. 1. The EURDEP system during the Fukushima accident: data analysis and information exchange and the radiological consequences for Europe Marc De Cort, DG JRC, ITU E.08, Ispra Peter Bossew, BfS, Berlin ITU - Institute for Transuranium Elements Ispra - Italy http://itu.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ http://www.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ 1
  2. 2. Content I. EC International information and data exchange systems - ECURIE, emergency response, information policy - EURDEP: dose rate, air monitors II. synopsis of observations in Europe - radionuclide concentrations in air - radionuclide ratios - estimation methods - fallout, foodstuff - dosesAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 2
  3. 3. Part I: EC international information and data exchange systemsAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 3
  4. 4. Council Decision 87/600 • The ECURIE system is the practical implementation of the Council Decision 87/600. It is the early notification system for radiological accidents of the EC. When a Member State decides to take counter-measures, it shall forthwith notify the Commission and the affected MS’s • This Council Decision was taken to assure a better preparedness and response to transboundary events as caused by the Chernobyl accident • The Council Decision is binding for EU Member States and foresees that each country nominates a Contact Point (CP, 24/7 available) and Competent Authority (CA). Other countries can subscribe on a voluntary basis. • The Commission shall immediately forward notifications to all the national competent authorities (CA) • Any MS will inform the Commission of the levels of radioactivity that it measuresAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 4
  5. 5. ECURIE <> IAEA• The worldwide counterpart of ECURIE is the early notification system of the IAEA (EMERCON/ENATOM).• Intense collaborations have resulted in the definition of a common data-format (International Radiological Information eXchange : IRIX) and an identical set of information to exchange during an event.• The EC has signed the IAEA early notification convention.• WebECURIE and USIE (IAEA) will both be compatible to the IRIX standards.• Being able to use the same data-format for the EC and the IAEA reduces need for duplication, therefore the EU MSs are strongly facilitated in notifying the two organizations during an accident.AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 5
  6. 6. European radiologicalmonitoring networks (status 2008) Ambient dose-rate Air concentration on-line stations: ±4500 on-line stations: 236 off-line stations: 383 AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 6
  7. 7. EURDEP - On-linedata base - WWW Internationally recognized standard format for radiological data; Network (35 European countries with 4500 stations participating); daily and hourly transmissions, mostly γ- dose rates; Raw data available at 3 mirror-sites (Ispra, Italy – Freiburg, Germany – Luxembourg) Web-site to view and download data.http://eurdep.jrc.ec.europa.euAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 7
  8. 8. Data availability • To all data-providers • National and international governmental Organizations related to emergency response • Some exceptions for research – Authorization by EC and/or IAEA – Authorization by national Contact Point – Reference to data-providers • Public web-site – Country imposed delay – No download of data – No meteo-dataAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 8
  9. 9. IRMIS / EURDEP relation • EURDEP technology available to IAEA – Web-site with configuration file to run as EURDEP private, EURDEP public, IRMIS private, IRMIS public – Further development by EC / JRC – IAEA is part of decision making structure to define future requirements – All data collected under EURDEP is available at IRMIS, all data collected under IRMIS is available at EURDEPAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 9
  10. 10. Part II: Observations in Europe after the accident in Fukushima Daiichi NPPAIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 10
  11. 11. 11
  12. 12. Arrival of contaminatedair in Europe• Earthquake: 11 Mar 2011, 14:46; Approximate passage date Tsunami ca. 15:27 of the• Explosions, venting maximum concentration 2500000• First notice in Europe: of 131I (part.). Scale: days CTBTO Reykjavik after 20 March 2000000 (Iceland), 20/21 Mar 11 2011. Axis 18 units: m.• Maxima in Europe: 1500000 17 6 Apr 11 16 27 Mar – 6 April 11 15 14 1000000 13 12 1 Apr 11 11 500000 10 9 8 source: IRSN 0 7 27 Mar 11 6 -500000 -1000000 -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 12
  13. 13. Time series • Data from 227 10000 Österös NO Schauinsland DE max. ca. 6 mBq/m³ Stockholm SE stations available; Lodz PL Vienna AT • Different quality; Praha CZ • 150 could be used for spatialI-131 (part.), µBq/m³ 1000 Skopje MK evaluations; Athens GR Genova IT • Stat.-based adaptation and 100 harmonization necessary in many cases 10 2.4.11 0:00 4.4.11 0:00 6.4.11 0:00 8.4.11 0:00 21.3.11 0:00 23.3.11 0:00 25.3.11 0:00 27.3.11 0:00 29.3.11 0:00 31.3.11 0:00 10.4.11 0:00 12.4.11 0:00 14.4.11 0:00 16.4.11 0:00 18.4.11 0:00 20.4.11 0:00 22.4.11 0:00 24.4.11 0:00 26.4.11 0:00 28.4.11 0:00 25 20 3 131 I (aerosol) activity conc., Bq/m sampling mid time 15 10 Fukushima, Central Europe: 5 137 Cs (aerosol) >3 orders of 0 131Iand 137Cs concentrations in air over magnitude lower 30 30 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 4/ 4/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 5/ 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Ispra (Italy) after the Chernobyl accident. 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 86 than Chernobyl! 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 12 00 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 :0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: REM database. AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 13
  14. 14. Problems of data harmonization 4000 "true" series 3500 1 d sampling, offset 1 1 d sampling, offset 2 Establish a consistent input data set. 3000 1 d sampling, offset 3 1 d sampling, offset 4 Among problems: • Stations have different offsets ofconcentration 2500 2000 sampling period; 1500 • Stations have different durations of 1000 sampling periods. 500 4000 4000 0 3500 1 day 3500 5 10 15 20 2 days 3000 3000 days grey: simulated “true” series 2500 2500 (principle: 2000 2000 multiplicative cascade) 1500 1500 1000 1000 scaling of maximum with size of 500 500 0 0 observation window 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 4000 4000 Braunschw eig 1 Potsdam 3500 3500 Offenbach 0.9 Schauinsland 3 days 5 days 3000 3000 Skopje 0.8 MEDIAN 2500 2500 relative maximum Reykjavik 0.7 Stockholm Umea 2000 2000 Beograd 0.6 Linz 1500 1500 Hradec Kralove 0.5 Ostrava 1000 1000 Sevilla 0.4 Sacavém 500 500 Cáceres 0.3 Österös 0 0 Kiruna 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 0.2 Firenze 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 window size (d) AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 14
  15. 15. 131Iconcentrations in aerosols2500000 observed maximum within domain2000000 (corrected for sampling offset and duration): 61500000 5 6.4 mBq/m³ (±11%), Łodz, PL, 29.3.111000000 4 3 500000 2 source of most maps and graphs: - P. Bossew, G. Kirchner, M. De Cort, G. de Vries, A. 1 Nishev, Luca de Felice: Radioactivity from Fukushima- 0 Dai-ichi in air over Europe, part 1: Spatio-temporal analysis. publ. on-line, JER 0 - G. Kirchner, P. Bossew, M. De Cort: Radioactivity from Fukushima Dai-ichi in air over Europe, part 2: -500000 What can it tell us about the accident? publ. on-line, JER. Estimated distribution of maximum 131I-1000000 (particulate) concentration over Europe. Scale unit: mBq/m³. Axis units: m. -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 15
  16. 16. 131Iconcentrations in aerosols plot: E[Z(U(x))|{zi}]2500000 spatial mean in domain: 9.1 mBq*d/m³ observed max. (corr. for cut-off) 23.3 mBq*d/m³ (±4%), Utena, LT2000000 mBq*d/m³ 181500000 16 141000000 12 10 500000 8 6 0 4 -500000-1000000 -1500000 -1000000 -500000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 Estimated distribution of time-cumulated 131I (particulate) concentration over Europe. Scale Chernobyl (1986); mean (Austria): 30 Bq*d/m³ unit: mBq*d/m³. Axis units: m. AIRP Fukushima Convent, 14 September 2012. Varese 16

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