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Redrawing Malaysia's Future : The effect of new boundaries

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In light of the 2nd proposal of redelineation for the whole country (Excluding Sarawak), does the proposed boundaries has adverse impact on GE14? We will examine 4 states and see how redelineation affects the electoral scene in these areas

Published in: News & Politics
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Redrawing Malaysia's Future : The effect of new boundaries

  1. 1. REDRAWING MALAYSIA’S FUTURE: THE EFFECTS OF NEW ELECTORAL BOUNDARIES Danesh Prakash Chacko (Tindak Malaysia Network Services PLT)
  2. 2. BASICS OF MALAYSIAN ELECTORAL SYSTEM • Parliamentary style government • First Past the Post (FPTP) /Plurality • How to form a government?
  3. 3. FUNDAMENTALS OF REDELINEATION • Redelineation • Gerrymandering • Malapportionment Gerry goes absolute meandering at the polling district (DM) level
  4. 4. ANALYSING 2016 - 18 REDELINEATION Source : Penang Institute, SPR Malaysia
  5. 5. IMPACT OF REDELINEATION • May not be a scary as people would like to think • BN may get upper hand in parliamentary seat count in Peninsular Malaysia • Sabah could determine whether BN obtains a 2/3 majority or the creation of PH government • Multicorner fights have more impact than redelineation • Let’s examine Kedah, Perak, Kelantan and Johor • Disclaimer: Politics is fluid and is difficult to predict
  6. 6. IMPACT ON KEDAH • At Parliamentary level • Redelineation impacted 4 out of 15 parliamentary seat • 3 of the affected seats are held by PH and Mahfuz Omar • In the event of a 3 corner fight, BN may increase parliamentary hold from 10 to 12 • Alor Setar is classic example of packing of opposition voters (as per Syor 2). This is done at the expense of neighbouring Kuala Kedah (PKR seat)
  7. 7. IMPACT ON KEDAH • At DUN Level • Though outright majority of Kedahan DUN seats are Malay majority, there may be racialization of 9 affected DUN seat in favour to Malay voters. • Only two DUN seats witnessed a rise of non Malay voters INCREASE OF MALAY VOTERS (%) NUMBER OF DUN SEATS < 1 % 2 1 – 2 % 2 2 – 5 % 4 > 5 % 1
  8. 8. IMPACT ON KEDAH • At DUN Level • If 75% of Kedahan voters turn up to vote, where • 45 – 55 % of Malay voters voted for BN, 15 -25 % voted for PH and 25 – 35 % voted for PAS • 15 – 25 % of Non Malay voters voted for BN, 65 – 80 % voted for PH and 5% voted for PAS • Redelineation makes no impact in improving chances of BN or PH in winning new DUN seats. • PAS may be at the losing end irrespective of redelineation. 3 corner fight has bigger impact than redelineation
  9. 9. IMPACT ON PERAK • At Parliamentary level • Redelineation impacted nearly 1/3 of Parliamentary seats of Perak • 7 seats affected held by PH and 2 seats affected are held by BN • Significant racial reengineering occurred in Lumut • Most of affected DAP seats experience an increase of Chinese voters while PAS and PKR seats witness an increase of Malay voters • In key certain seats, significant presence of Indian and Orang Asli (2 seats) voters will make them kingmakers in GE14
  10. 10. IMPACT ON PERAK Lumut will fall to BN if Syor 2 is passed Perak Syor 2 Parliamentary Map No redelineation but does a 3 corner fight favour to BN? No redelineation but does multi corner fight favour to BN? Bukit Gantang could fall to BN
  11. 11. IMPACT ON PERAK • At DUN Level • 30 out of 59 Perak’s seats will experience boundary changes. 16 of them belongs to PH • Significant Racial reengineering of certain state seats such as Changkat Jering (Amanah) and Tebing Tinggi (DAP). • Malay voters packed more in BN seats, Chinese voters packed more in PH seats and Indian voters marginally packed for BN areas
  12. 12. IMPACT OF PERAK • At DUN Level • Currently BN holds 31 DUN seats, razor thin control of the state government • Redelineation has minimal impact as it may allow BN to win 2 - 3 more DUN seats • Pakatan may win additional one seat through redelineation • 3 corner fight has more impact on GE14 outcome with PAS being at the losing end
  13. 13. IMPACT ON KELANTAN • At Parliamentary Level • One of the few states that had swapping of DUN seats among Parliamentary Seats. Rectified gerrymandering? Syor 2Current Rantau Panjang Pasir Mas
  14. 14. IMPACT ON KELANTAN • At DUN Level • While PAS may hold huge majority at the DUN level, 3 corner fight may put to an end to their 28 year rule • IDE Selangor concluded only 15 DUN seats are safe for PAS • With or without redelineation, PAS may lose either way. • Out of the 14 strongest PAS seats, 7 were affected by redelineation
  15. 15. IMPACT ON KELANTAN Example 1 Pasir Pekan is Kelantan MB’s seat. Redelineation will remove 22% of his support base away More pro BN voters move in Example 2 Panchor is Kelantan Deputy MB’s seat Absorbed one pro BN (76%) district
  16. 16. IMPACT ON JOHOR • At Parliamentary Level • 11 out 25 seats are affected by redelineation • Johor is unique that most affected seats by redelineation are held by BN (8 seats) • Outright gerrymandering of Pagoh has been totally reversed • Despite the redelineation, Pakatan presence in Johor (particularly in Johor Bahru) may grow in the event of 3 corner fight
  17. 17. IMPACT ON JOHOR • At DUN level • 34 out of 56 state seats affected by redelineation • 22 of them are held by BN • Malay voters packed in PAS seats • Chinese voters only packed in very strong DAP seats • Significant racial reengineering in Pekan Nanas • Presents a unique situation there is no consistent pattern to racialization for overall party advantages
  18. 18. IMPACT ON JOHOR • At DUN level • Redelineation makes no or minimal impact on improving PH and BN chances • 3 corner fight could lay the ground for Pakatan takeover of Johor • PAS would be at the losing end • In short, Johor is a tough election ground for BN and PH
  19. 19. WHERE TO NEXT • While historical redelineation exercises favoured BN, current outcome is not certain • Global revelations of 1MDB, Mahathir effect, Felda scandal and presence of Warisan have contributed to the unpredictable nature of politics in Malaysia. • Elections is a number game. Final electoral boundaries is unknown • Sabah, PAS, Indian Voter preferences and Orang Asli presence can sway things in favour to BN or PH • Final outcome is on Polling Day
  20. 20. REFERENCES • Penang Institute • SPR Malaysia (Redelineation Reports & Pelan Warta) • Q2 2017 Electoral Roll • IDE Selangor (for Kelantan Impact) • Merdeka Centre • Wikipedia * Following sources are quoted for research work and used as a reference only

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