MGT581 Sensing the Future

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  • Define the scanning domain, time horizon, level of acceptable anticipation risk, and format and frequency of reporting Choose sources of scanning information; generate search keywords and phrases Identify and document scanning “hits” Classify the hit as creating/confirming/countering; assess the value of the hit based on credibility, novelty, likelihood, impact, relevance, and time to general awareness Revisit scanning sources and methods, review goals, success and shortcomings with client
  • MGT581 Sensing the Future

    1. 1. David A. JarvisSalve Regina University, MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Sensing the Future:Environmental Scanning Techniques
    2. 2. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Scanning – What is it? A continuous broad exploration of information sources with the goal of finding “evidence of the future in the present” 2
    3. 3. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Scanning – What is it? Ongoing effort to identify significant changes in the world beyond the organization or group doing the scanning Systematic survey of current print media, websites and experts Looking for indicators of change that are likely to be of future importance Focused mainly on trends (changes over time) instead of particular events (single, quick change) Origins in military intelligence - “scan, clip and review” process 3
    4. 4. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Scanning – Why do we do it? “Learning faster than your competitors is the only sustainable competitive advantage in an environment of rapid innovation and change.” - Arie de Geus, former corporate planning director Royal Dutch Shell, author The Living Company 4
    5. 5. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Scanning – Why do we do it? Used to spot, identify, evaluate and track ideas that might shape our future world Provides a 360º view of the environment an organization operates in Encourages tiny surprises – prevents major surprises Helps to identify trends (drive baseline future) and weak signals (drive alternative futures) 5
    6. 6. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012One of the main goals of scanning is to “bringthe outside in” Laws & Emerging Regulations Technologies Standards & Regulation Energy & the Environment Generational Industry Change M&A Organization Trends (Internal Dynamics) Social Change Competition Customers Economic Geopolitical Developments Developments 6
    7. 7. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012What is a “scanning hit” ? A scanning hit is an event or new information that presents evidence of future change relevant to the domain CONFIRMING COUNTERING CREATING A hit that A hit that A hit that makes reinforces your contradicts your you aware of a current personal or current personal or new possibility, or organizational view organizational view new potential of the future of the future future state “I already knew “That changes “Wow, that really that, but good to things.” opened my eyes!” know.” 7
    8. 8. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Scanning Hit Example #1SOURCE: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2011/0428/Census-report-China-could-grow-old-before-it-grows-rich 8
    9. 9. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Scanning Hit Example #2SOURCE: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-14/another-earth-needed-to-meet-human-demands-for-natural-resources.html 9
    10. 10. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Scanning Hit Example #3SOURCE: http://www.planetizen.com/node/56851 10
    11. 11. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Scanning Hit Example #4SOURCE: http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/40422/ 11
    12. 12. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Top Thirteen Rules for Scanning 1 Find it! The future is already here…you need to find it 2 Clues Look for clues, not comprehensive evidence 3 Go deep Go deep, explore, focus broadly 4 Open mind Do not ignore evidence to the contrary, have an open mind 5 Global Take a global perspective 6 Novel Look for the novel, unfamiliar and uninteresting 7 Interactions Look for interactions and combinations 8 History Study history to understand context 9 Ongoing Make scanning an ongoing, integrated activity 10 Social Make scanning a shared, social process 11 Credible Identify credible sources 12 Relevant Scanning should be relevant to the organization 13 Get out! Get out from behind the computer – the future isn’t onlineSOURCE: Various 12
    13. 13. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012There are many different scanning frameworks – thepoint is to create a 360º view of the environment STEEP DEGEST PEST(LE) Social Demography Political Technological Environment Economic Environmental Government Societal Economic Environment Technological Political Society (Legal) (Values) Technology (Environmental) (Demographic) 13
    14. 14. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Having a classification system for scanning allows usto bring the big picture together easier Education, religion, media, arts, sports, values, cultural Social developments New and emerging technologies in a variety of fields, Technological new uses for old technologies, scientific developments The physical environment that we live in, geological Environmental events, changes in nature, natural resources GDP, trade, employment, monetary flows, markets, Economic corporations Political Laws, regulations, elections, international relations Age distributions, birth/death rates, migration, Demographic population changes, generational characteristics 14
    15. 15. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 The environmental scanning process 1 2 3 4 5 Framing Planning Executing Sense- Adapting making Understand Plan Monitor Determine Review and the need sources and sources and the adjust the methods perform relevance system searches and implicationsSOURCE: Cody Clark, IBM; Dr. Peter Bishop, University of Houston 15
    16. 16. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Planning - Where to look?  Newspapers & magazines  Seminars  Websites, blogs, wikis,  Think tanks podcasts, social networks  Academic publications &  Videos and television journals  News feeds & aggregators  Experts – Strategic thinkers, observers,  Newsletters philosophers, sociologists, management gurus, consultants,  Books and book reviews researchers, scientists, futurists  Corporate publications  Government information sources  Surveys  Non-governmental  Interviews organizations (NGOs) 16
    17. 17. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Planning – Good scanning catches emergingdevelopments early NOTE: This process has been accelerated by the global saturation of communications technology Popular Awareness Idea Early Creation Awareness Integration Science fiction, Scientific and News periodicals, mass media Educational and visionary technical coverage historical material, works, fringe literature, industry legislation publications publications 17
    18. 18. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Executing – Scanning in the digital age presents itsown opportunities and challenges  Social networks  Foresight communities  News aggregators  Blogs  Photo & video sites  Wikis  Forums/newsgroups  Microblogs  Google Alerts 18
    19. 19. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 With the ubiquity of digital information, there are a number of sites and organizations that provide scanning servicesSOURCE: http://shapingtomorrow.com/insights.cfm 19
    20. 20. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Executing – “Remarkable people” are essentialresources for scanning The future is not yet written down – it is concentrated in people and places Engage when you need an infusion of new ideas Can provide unexpected, provocative thinking, and challenge assumptions Don’t seek narrow experts Make sure they have authority “…intensely curious but sharp observers, who understand the way the world works and have their finger on the pulse of change” - Kees van der Heijden, 2002 20
    21. 21. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 Executing – “Learning journeys”… scouring the world for the future  Learning journeys are designed to seek out and learn from future-makers (innovators) and future-seers (thinkers)  Immersive experiences with the goals of changing worldviews, challenging popular opinion and being provocative  Exposure to ideas and people that are different than “the usual suspects” – analysts tend to “herd” around conventional wisdom “A desk is a dangerous place from which to view the world.” -John Le CarreSOURCE: “Finding the Future: Why “Learning Journeys” Give An Adaptive Edge”, Nicole-Anne Boyer, May 2004 21
    22. 22. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012What ascanningprocessshould looklike in anorganization 22
    23. 23. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 EXERCISE (Magazine Scan) 23
    24. 24. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012 ASSIGNMENT 24
    25. 25. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Scanning Journal Assignments  At the beginning of each class be prepared to share 1-2 scanning hits and discuss  The scanning journal should contain, at a minimum, 10 scanning entries  The journal may include entries that you use in class  Entries will follow the format on the following page 25
    26. 26. Sensing the Future – Jarvis – MGT581 Business Foresight & Futuring, June 4-7, 2012Format for Scanning Journal 1 Title 2 Source 3 Summary (<50 words) 4 Category (STEEP) Creating, confirming or 5 countering and why 6 Impact & relevance 26

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