Multi Hypothesis Design Studio

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Notes for the attendees of LeanUXNYC Design Studio

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Multi Hypothesis Design Studio

  1. 1. http://xkcd.com/@cyetain
  2. 2. @cyetain
  3. 3. Abduction not just for Aliens cyetain@@cyetain
  4. 4. Analogue ABDUCE Plausible Justifiable The Way Humans Think INDUCE Probable Probability Binary DEDUCE Predictive The Way Computers "Think"@cyetain
  5. 5. Experiences ABDUCE Hypothesises If Coherent Expected DEDUCE Outcomes If Expected Outcomes Match Reality Effective INDUCE Match@cyetain
  6. 6. ABDUCE INDUCE DEDUCE@cyetain
  7. 7. ABDUCE SURPRISE!!! INDUCE DEDUCE@cyetain
  8. 8. The Principle of Optimum Failure Rate Potential Information 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
  9. 9. Greater Asserted Greater Asserted Information Information Potential Information 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
  10. 10. Greater Asserted Greater Asserted Information Information Interesting Ideas Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
  11. 11. Greater Asserted Greater Asserted Information Information Interesting Ideas Potential Information Uncomfortable Confident Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
  12. 12. Number of Samples The Competency Trap Experience of Failure@cyetain
  13. 13. Potential Information 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
  14. 14. The Line of SURPRISE! Interesting Hidden Hidden Risk Ideas Value Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
  15. 15. 3 2 Interesting Hidden Hidden Risk Ideas Value Potential Information 1 Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% 1 During Customer Development Focus on Interesting Ideas Probability of Failure Before Scaling Validate Your "We Know This Assumptions" to 2 reduce risk of Failure Demand 3 After Customer Validation Run experiments to Validate Assumptions of Failure@cyetain
  16. 16. Utilize Abduction & Scientific Method Just Say No to Xenophobia@cyetain
  17. 17. != Multi-Hypothesis Research@cyetain
  18. 18. BRAINSTORM@cyetain
  19. 19. Theories Opinions Hypothesizes The Facts and Just the Facts@cyetain
  20. 20. Theories Opinions Hypothesizes Constraints Criteria@cyetain
  21. 21. Theories Opinions Hypothesizes Question Facts@cyetain
  22. 22. Theories Opinions Hypothesizes Request More Information@cyetain
  23. 23. •Based on your experiences, what would you do to solve this problem? This is your Hypothesis. •Identify What Needs to Be True if your Hypothesis is true. •Assert, Presume, Assume Truth •Imagine Experiments that would justify the Assumptions How Would I Validate myHow Would I understanding of this solve this problem? Problem?@cyetain
  24. 24. I Assert that this I know this Interesting Ideas Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure I Presume Somebody knows this Interesting Ideas Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory I am going to Assume is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% this is true for my Probability of Failure Hypothesis to be true Interesting Ideas Potential Information Pretty Pretty Sure Sure theory theory is right is wrong 0% 50% 100% Probability of Failure@cyetain
  25. 25. Rotate Pairs 2-3 Times Allow Time for Revision Between Rounds This is my Hypothesis, Challenge Assumptions and Assumptions & Experiments Experiments@cyetain
  26. 26. This is my Hypothesis, Assumptions and Experiments@cyetain
  27. 27. Multiple Smaller Experiments against Multiple Abductive Hypotheses instead of Single Large Experiment against Single Hypotheses@cyetain

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