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Jared Kearby - Power Technology Research


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Jared Kearby's Talk at EV Momentum Berlin, 21 June 2018

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Jared Kearby - Power Technology Research

  1. 1. EVs & Manufacturing How the adoption of EVs is impacting automotive manufacturing and what does this mean for the future? Prepared for EV Momentum by Power Technology Research Jared Kearby, Director - Industrial
  2. 2. Outline • PTR Introduction • EV Overview • Manufacturing Focus • Future Supply Chain Impacts
  3. 3. Power Technology Research Type of Work We Do for Our Clients Market Sizing & Forecasting Competitive Analysis Market Accessibility Installation Base Annual Market Growth Forecast Market Shares SWOT Analysis Benchmarking Cost Breakdown Business Practices Regulatory Landscape Product & Market Trends Sales Channel Analysis Project Specific Business Development Support
  4. 4. EV Overview • The electric vehicle has seen early market success before. • Today, EVs are on track to impact the status quo of the automotive sector. • Wide-scale adoption of EVs will impact the automotive industry on all fronts. Regardless of whether the EV market grows by a 15% or 35% CAGR into 2025, an impact will be evident.
  5. 5. Manufacturing Focus
  6. 6. Industrial Manufacturing 2017 Autmotive Manufacturing Machinery ($b) ICE Vehicles EVs (HEV, PHEV, BEV, FCEV) Source: PTR ~$25b~$575b
  7. 7. Component Reduction 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Gearbox (Stages) Differential Driveshaft Clutch/Flywheel AvgNo.ofComponents Average Number of Power-transfer Components in ICE Vehicle and EV ICEs* BEVs** Wheel-hub EVs **front-wheel drive, single-motor with a single-speed gearbox. *rear-wheel drive, 8-cylinder engine & 5-speed manual transmission Source: PTR
  8. 8. Key Impacts on the Machine Tool Market • In this case, machine tools refers to the manufacturing of machinery used in the cutting or forming of metals. • Not all components will be affected, but several component markets are at risk for reduced demand.
  9. 9. Risk Outlook by Component Group ICE Component Risk Level in 2035 ICE Component Risk Level in 2035 Piston  Gearbox  Valve  Power Transfer System*  Rod  Chassis  Oil/Fuel Supply System  Wheels/Tires  Exhaust system  Suspension  Timing Gear  Body Panels  Camshaft  Brake Systems  Crankshaft  Interior/Seating  Engine block/head  Steering Systems  = High Risk = Moderate Risk  = Low Risk *Power transfer system includes clutches, flywheels, driveshafts (incl. CV joints) and differentials Source: PTR
  10. 10. Machine Tools Market Automotive 40% Other Industrial 60% 2017 Machine Tools Market Split ($b) Automotive Other Industrial Source: PTR $39.2b $58.8b
  11. 11. EVs & Machine Tools 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Units(m) Revenue($B) Automotive Machine Tools Market & EV Shipment Forecasts, 2016 to 2030, Billion($), Units(m) Automotive Machine Tools Market Size ($B) EV Annual Forecast (m Units) Source: IEA, PTR
  12. 12. What does this mean? Short-term • Increased orders for machine tool manufacturers due to demand for both HEV, PHEV and ICE components. Long-term • Automotive machine tool manufacturers will see reduced orders for ICE machinery. • Results in a shift to alternative business models. There are components that will need to be produced for BEVs as well, such as battery casings, gears and driveshafts, suspension coils, A-frames, etc.
  13. 13. Examples ZF • In 2016, the E-Mobility Division was formed in response to the increase BEV and PHEV demand. GKN • As a result of a higher growth rate for EVs, GKN is now offering eDrive systems for the OEMs. Although eDrive sales accounted for only 1% of GKN Driveline division revenue in 2016, this number is expected to grow as EVs continue to penetrate the automotive market MAGNA • Has invested in developing a BEV drivetrain solution for the OEMs. In 2016, the company won its first BEV contract for Jaguar’s I-Pace, which is planned to start being delivered in the second half of 2018.
  14. 14. Future Supply Chain Impacts
  15. 15. Supply Chain Today
  16. 16. Supply Chain Evolution
  17. 17. Future Factors of Success • Vertical integration • Ties to the automotive sector • Willingness to invest in alternative revenue sources “The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining.”
  18. 18. Questions
  19. 19. ©Power Technology Research LLC All the products, company names and other marks/logos appearing in this document are trademarks and property of Power Technology Research LLC or their respective owners. No part of this analysis may be reproduced, reused or otherwise distributed in any form or fashion without prior written consent of Power Technology Research LLC, with the exception of any distribution as permitted by the license bought by the customer. Content reproduced or redistributed according to the permission must still give attribute of authorship to Power Technology Research LLC and display the legal notices. The information contained in this database is from sources deemed reliable by Power Technology Research LLC, however, the accuracy and completeness of the data is not warranted. To the extent permitted by the law, Power Technology Research LLC shall not be liable for any errors, omissions or any loss or damage incurred due to reliance on the information contained in this database. For further information , please visit the licensing section of our website under: or contact us at: ;+1-408-622-0456 (North America and RoW); +49 (0)89 12250950 (EMEA). Contact Us Sunnyvale, California Munich, Germany London, UK Tokyo, Japan Jared Kearby Director – Industrial M. +49 0162 173 2018 Seoul, South Korea