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A Perspective of a Connected and Autonomous Transportation System

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2015 D-STOP Symposium session by CTR's Mike Walton. Watch the presentation at http://youtu.be/yd0DJWndSmo?list=PLWQCGQLl10mwkino_uNmTO4JXOg5oCWtU

Get symposium details: http://ctr.utexas.edu/research/d-stop/education/annual-symposium/

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A Perspective of a Connected and Autonomous Transportation System

  1. 1. A PERSPECTIVE OF A CONNECTED AND AUTONOMOUS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM C. Michael Walton, Ph.D., P.E. Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering The University of Texas at Austin March 2, 2015
  2. 2. 2 Why ITS? United States in 2009: • 5.5 million traffic crashes * – 30,797 fatalities (lowest since 1954) – 1.5 million injuries’ – $230.6 billion in costs • $115 billion cost of urban traffic congestion** – 4.8 billion hours of delay – 3.9 billion gallons of wasted fuel • Unacceptable * US DOT, Traffic Safety Facts 2009 **Texas Transportation Institute, Urban Mobility Report 2010 Source: USDOT Safety Facts 2010, Texas Tech Institute Mobility Report 2010
  3. 3. Vision – What would we wish for?  Vehicles that can’t crash ◦ Vehicles are wrapped in information ◦ Everyone has technology-enabled safety in their vehicles  Technology in transportation reduces negative impact on the environment ◦ Improved system performance ◦ Improved driver decision-making
  4. 4. The issue of driver distraction is building
  5. 5. Crashless Vehicles Evolution to Crashless Vehicles Connected - Mobile Communications - Instant Asset Tracking -Real Time Traffic Info - Electronic Tolling Autonomous -Partial or full self driving Coordinated - Coordinated Routing - Optimized Traffic Flow Cooperative - Cooperative Collision Avoidance - Transit-aware Signal Preemption
  6. 6. IVHS – Getting Started  Mobility 2000  IVHS America Established  ISTEA  Strategic Plan for IVHS  IVHS Architecture Program  Early Tests and Deployments ◦ TravTek, HELP, ETC, etc.  IVHS to ITS 1986-1994
  7. 7. ITS – Research & Testing  Mobilizing for deployment  Showcasing and broadening scope  Focus on benefits and opportunities  Internet boom  Major Milestones ◦ ITS Program Plan, ITS America and U.S. DOT deployment goals, IVI, MMDI, standards initiatives underway 1994-1998
  8. 8. ITS - Mainstreaming  TEA-21  Deploy, deploy, deploy  Operations focus  511 begins  Beginning to recognize the need for more and better data  Hurricane Floyd and 9/11 demonstrate problems with being “blind” 1999-2001
  9. 9. ITS – Refining & Recommitting  Reauthorization – ensuring continuing role and recognition of the importance of ITS in transportation  Security and reliability added to efficiency, safety and productivity as goals  Recognized need to accelerate data gathering, sharing and use ◦ Infostructure Proposal (TRB 2002) ◦ INTI from National ITS Program Plan 2001-2005
  10. 10. Robo-Taxi Vision into the Future Bright Future Safer, more reliable, and more sustainable system Just a few examples… Auto Platooning Ridesharing Collision Avoidance Intelligent Merging Probe sensing
  11. 11. Auto Convoying (L2-L3) Demonstrations:  GERMANY: platoon of four trucks with10 m spacing  U.S.: three trucks with 3-6 m spacing  SWEDEN: truck platooning on a 520 km route  VOLVO (SARTRE): platoon travels at 85 km/h, with 6 m spacing; 10000 km distance.  JAPAN: platoon travels at 80 km/h, with 4 m
  12. 12. kpmg: self-driving cars: are we ready?
  13. 13. Market Highly automated vehicles (L3-L4) to launch in five years 2014 2020 Nissan AV on market 2017 Volvo AV road test in Sweden Year Google will test driverless car in Calif, U.S. Driving assistance features on market Prototyping and lab test Large-scale road test and commercialization of highly automated vehicles GM almost driverless car coming 2013 Toyota, Audi demonstrati on Mercedes-Benz driverless car production ready 2025 Daimler, Ford AV on market 2010 Google self- driving car project launched
  14. 14. The Vehicle is the Sensor Maybach 57 Vehicle location Destination Traffic Speed Road surface Weather…
  15. 15. Sensors Do Have Their Limitations Sensors provide part of the view  Range is an issue – often line of sight  Scope is an issue – not everything needed can be sensed in a timely fashion  Especially true in the rapidly changing situation of an an unfolding event  Maps & Sensors Collaborate  Inertial sensors provide information about vehicle’s current position and motion  Radar provides information about environment in the the vehicle’s heading direction  Digital maps provide information about the road ahead ahead and the vehicle’s future position with regard to
  16. 16. Examples of Wireless Technologies Technology Range Latency 5.9 GHz DSRC 1000 m .0002 sec. Digital Cellular 4000-6000 m 1.5-3.5 sec. Bluetooth 10 m 3-4 sec. Digital Television 40,000 m 10-30 sec. Other 802.11 Wireless Technologies 1000 m 3-5 sec. Terrestrial Digital Radio 30,000-50,000 m 10-20 sec. Two-way Satellite N/A 60+ sec.
  17. 17. Wireless Technology Revolution Observations: Technology Private Sector  Fast technology evolution ◦ Growing use of navigation systems (on 69% of all models) ◦ Growing desire to deliver real-time traffic information ◦ Some are marketing real-time information ◦ Data quality and extent is limited ◦ Many technologies are vying to be the data solution ◦ No clear winner…yet ◦ OEMs are looking to technology for vehicular safety ◦ Autonomous safety systems are growing
  18. 18. U.S. Department of Transportation Spectrum Scarcity and Future Communications Technologies
  19. 19. Work Areas - Policy Preliminary topics Data ownership Privacy Infrastructure investments Data management & distribution Pricing strategies
  20. 20. Military -- Cutting deployment time from 60 days to 72 hrs. Growth in coastal evacuation needs Precision Weather Response National Park Management Everyone needs data! Precision Medical Response
  21. 21. More and More Data in the Cloud  By 2020, one-third of all data will live in or pass through the cloud  Global cloud services revenue will jump 20% per year  IT spending on innovation and cloud computing could top $1 trillion by 2014 Creating new capabilities… 1960 1970 1980 1990 20102000 Mainframe Cloud Virtualization Web Client Server Minicomputer Source: Lew Tucker, Cloud CTO, Cisco, 2011; EMC, 2011; IDC, 2010
  22. 22. By 2015, 1 Zettabyte of Data Will Flow over the Internet  One zettabyte = stack of books from Earth to Pluto 20 times (72 billion miles)  Increase of 540,000 times from 2003; more than 90% from video  If an 11 oz. cup of coffee equals 1 gigabyte, then 1 zettabyte would have the same volume of the Great Wall of China Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), June 2011
  23. 23. U.S. Department of Transportation Cloud Computing
  24. 24. The Opportunity: Turning Data into Wisdom Data Data Information Knowledge Wisdom More Important Less Important Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
  25. 25. Information “Ownership”  Each information network has multiple stakeholder and many different data “owners”  e.g., the “Highway Information Network” has many stakeholders, including state/local DOT’s, vehicle operators or manufacturers, package delivery, etc. – all of these groups have data pertaining to the highway  Data “owners” control the functionality, quality, security, and privacy of their data  In a “shared network,” stakeholders Summary
  26. 26. U.S. Department of Transportation Cyber Vulnerabilities Source: http://ics-cert.us-cert.gov/images/figure1.jpg
  27. 27. Barriers and Uncertainties Adoption is uncertain:  Reliability of technologies  Google’s car are involved in two incidents so far in 200,000 miles travel: one rear-ended, one when a human driver took the control  Liability  Affordability  A Google driverless car costs $150,000 as of 2013  Does Moore’s law kpmg: Self-driving cars: The next revolution
  28. 28. Barriers and Fears of Smart Systems  Institutional barriers ◦ Different sectors may not want to share data ◦ Lack of common language or criteria between sectors  Government regulation (or lack there of)  Consumer’s may not embrace the technology  Barriers can eventually be overcome  Fears ◦ Loss of privacy: sensors everywhere gives a sense of being under surveillance ◦ Potential for hackers to take over the systems ◦ People may become too reliant on smart technologies that they will not be able to function without them Source: The Economist: It’s a smart world: A special report on smart systems, November 6, 2010
  29. 29. Emerging Priorities  Toward Zero Deaths and Zero Injuries  Reliable Travel  Connected Vehicles  Public Safety  Homeland Security  Sustainable Environment (e.g., zero carbon, zero fatalities, etc.)  Trip Pricing Summary
  30. 30. C. Michael Walton, Ph.D., P.E. Ernest H. Cockrell Centennial Chair in Engineering Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering The University of Texas at Austin 301 E. Dean Keeton Street, Stop C1761 Austin, TX 78712 512-471-1414 cmwalton@mail.utexas.edu 34

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