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Human Stabilization Operations ( H S O) Final27 July2009


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Human Stabilization Operations ( H S O) Final27 July2009

  1. 1. Human Stabilization Operations (HSO) Standing up a culture through its natural social network dynamics to withstand military intervention and empower it to extinguish its “bad ideas” like terrorism
  2. 2. Table of Contents <ul><li>Executive Summary (Slides 1-11) </li></ul><ul><li>WHAT Human Stabilization Operations is and is Not (Slides 12-16) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mission, Goals & Unique Characteristics (Slides 17-20) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>HOW Statement of Work - Five Elements (Slides 21-38) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rapid prototyping of Interventions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Case studies of Models and Processes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vision and Integration into Military Strategy, Operations, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Policy & Doctrine </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Training at Civil/Military, Contractor and Joint Chiefs Levels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Partnership (Disaster/HSO) Development & Information Systems Demonstrations with Non-Traditional Organizations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>WHY - Underlying theory of HSO (Slides 39-49) </li></ul>
  3. 3. AF-Pak Human Stabilization: The Unique Missing Element (Hu) <ul><li>Empowering Human (Hu) networks – Only Networks can overcome Networks - like terrorism. </li></ul><ul><li>New Generation of Technology – Builds on Physical Infrastructure (ICT, electricity, roads) enabling decentralized social networks. </li></ul><ul><li>Targeted small $ - build cultural identity & exchange of ideas to withstand force of war and destabilization of terrorism. </li></ul><ul><li>Living learning Organization - capable of rapid field intervention, prototyping, metrics, evolving strategy on Human Dynamics. </li></ul><ul><li>People-to-People programs - Civil/Military training, tapping into expertise/resources of AF-Pak Diaspora, cultural narratives. </li></ul><ul><li>Strategic realignment - US Military and AF-Pak institutions about Hu change - policy, Civil/Military decision making, role of STAR-TIDES & ICT </li></ul>
  4. 4. Missing Link in Stabilization: Human Social Networks – PIE Power Infrastructure Empower Social Infrastructure Empower, Enable, Equip & Evolve Physical Infrastructure Nation Building Power – Physical Security
  5. 5. Improving Counter-Insurgency Clear Hold Build I Empower Enable Equip Evolve AF-PAK Human Stabilization Operations Virtuous Cycles T-COIN Total Counter Insurgency Fear Disable Forbid Destroy Insurgent Vicious Cycles
  6. 6. Learning Systems –Supply Chains of Ideas Human Stabilization Operations Non-Trivial Ideas –System Rules Grand Narratives – Stories that Transform Innovation Brief - Two Page What & How Animation/Comics – Abstract - Ideas in Play AF-PAK People-to-People Empowerment Program solutions: Technology, Media Training Modules Intervention Participants Outcomes Check Assumptions
  7. 7. Value Added Proposition: HSO melds power of the people with power of the military for labor intensive counter-insurgency <ul><li>HSO based on America’s forgotten lessons of mobilizing a people - patterns of sustainable change - “Complete Arc of War and Peace” </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure of Sustainable Peace is laid before the first bullet is fired and while the outcome of war is unknown. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>“ The Revolution was in the minds of the people,…years before a drop of blood was drawn at Lexington.” John Adams wrote to Thomas Jefferson in 1815 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Grant and Chamberlain stop terrorism cold at Appomattox – Use of Honor </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Seven point, one page Atlantic Charter set out Allied Powers intent, resolve & benefits in one page. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bombs-away Le May creates the “Trust Building” 500 Pound “White Propaganda” Bombs over Japan in WWII. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Marshall Plan for the Mind, George C. Minden, 10 million books/magazines to Communist countries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Counter point - Non-sustainable peace a short arc of war e.g., Treaty of Versailles, thrust on innocent Doughboys de-stabilizing Germany making WWII inevitable. </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Interactive Social/ Cultural environment Native/Local Social Networks Training, Active Interventions, Focus Group Evaluation 1 Change Agents (WesternAf-Pak) in the field Training, Metrics & “Middle-Out” Learning Corporate Culture 3 Hu Stabilization Operations: Improving Collective IQ Mobilize/Integrate DoD, Civil and NGO/People Resources, Rapid Prototyping, Policy, Training 4 US Military Organizational Leadership - Top Level/Middle Level Training, Policy, Overcoming Strategic Incoherence Corporate Culture Understanding & Change in Dynamic Human Systems External Environmental Factors: Terrorist, Insurgents, Media, Institutional Self Interest Porous Boundary– free exchange of information and influence
  9. 9. Theme - Human Stabilization Operations <ul><li>The violence of Modern Asymmetric Warfare destroys: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Traditional cultural answers, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sinews of the every day </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Governance patterns </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Basic food, shelter, water needs of a people </li></ul></ul><ul><li>creating a vacuum. Social structures do not like vacuums. </li></ul><ul><li>Forgotten lesson from Fall of Baghdad/Afghanistan – Western style warfare creates a vacuum. Unless the people are engaged in the conversation of ideas the Terrorists will fill the mind space and create the social infrastructure addressing basic needs. </li></ul><ul><li>The Taliban & al Qaeda have preset answers* to fill the vacuum.  What does the West have to fill the vacuum? Where are our Warriors of the Mind empowering a people? Amidst of chaos how to we provide tools of survival/social infrastructure? </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>Objective of HSO - empower a people to forge their own identity, allow it to change vicious cycles of interaction and draw from its deep narratives a way of thinking and living capable of meeting the dynamics of globalization – to positively fill the vacuum left by war. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Executive Summary Human Stabilization Operations Model focuses on Re/Orientation in Patterns of Conflict (OODA Loop)
  11. 11. Executive Summary Human Stabilization Operations <ul><li>Rapid Prototyping of Interventions </li></ul><ul><li>Case Studies of Models and Processes </li></ul><ul><li>Vision & Integration into Military Strategy, Operations, Policy & Doctrine </li></ul><ul><li>Training at Civil/Military, Contractor & JCS Levels </li></ul><ul><li>Partnership Development & Information Systems –Demonstration Design </li></ul>
  12. 12. Executive Summary HSO Rapid Prototyping of Interventions <ul><li>Weaving Social Fabric- Whole Afghanistan Catalog: Access to Tools </li></ul><ul><li>Forging Afghan Identity – Virtual Museum; People’s Story; One Day Photos </li></ul><ul><li>Speaking in the Human Tongue – First Voice; Radio Narratives </li></ul><ul><li>Educations from Islam’s Golden Age – Reconnecting Education with What Made Islam Great </li></ul><ul><li>Engaging the Deep Structure of a People – Weaving Intellectual Vision: Marshal Plan for the Mind; Yemeni Judicial Court Arguments </li></ul><ul><li>University without Walls/World Portal – Free University; Free Internet World Portal </li></ul><ul><li>Empowering Women in the Home – Home -Education; Health; Economics & Life Skills </li></ul>
  13. 13. Two Documents Provide Breech in Wall of Counterproductive, Tradition Bound Military Doctrine <ul><li>Human Stabilization Operations (HSO) Responds to “Capstone Concept for Joint Operations” (CCJO) signed by Admiral Mike Mullen 15 January 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Human Stabilization Operations (HSO) Responds to Defense Science Board, “Understanding Human Dynamics” March 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Core of Capstone & Human Dynamics Vision </li></ul><ul><ul><li>New generation of human oriented, culturally based strategies empowered by network enhancing technologies must be created, tested and embedded with non traditional partners . </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Step-wise experiments fielded now by JFCOM, CENTCOM, Civil/Military up to 2016 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Working the Human Element requires systemic change in policy, doctrine, tactics, training and funding. </li></ul></ul>
  14. 14. Table of Contents <ul><li>Executive Summary (Slides 1-11) </li></ul><ul><li>WHAT Human Stabilization Operations is and is Not (Slides 12-16) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Mission, Goals & Unique Characteristics (Slides 17-20) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>HOW Statement of Work - Five Elements (Slides 21-38) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Rapid prototyping of Interventions </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Case studies of Models and Processes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vision and Integration into Military Strategy, Operations, </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Policy & Doctrine </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Training at Civil/Military, Contractor and Joint Chiefs Levels </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Partnership (Disaster/HSO) Development & Information Systems Demonstrations with Non-Traditional Organizations </li></ul></ul><ul><li>WHY - Underlying theory of HSO (Slides 39-49) </li></ul>
  15. 15. HSO FOCUSES ON “FAILED CULTURE” NOT “FAILED STATE” <ul><li>Failed State Strategy Focus </li></ul><ul><li>Standing up a nation state </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on elections of representatives and centralization of power </li></ul><ul><li>Diplomatic Tools: Mediation, negotiation, force and allocation of resources, State-to-State </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasis on physical infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Democracy – create elections so representatives can make decisions, community of nations </li></ul><ul><li>Problems: corruption, politicization of everything, focus on the secular </li></ul><ul><li>Successful Culture Strategy Focus </li></ul><ul><li>Standing up a culture </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on empowering people to self organize in decentralized environment </li></ul><ul><li>Cultural Tools: Communications (Internet), identity, orientation, ideas community enabling interventions, People-to-People </li></ul><ul><li>Emphasis on social infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Democracy – Ability and tools to solve problems via open, human communication systems </li></ul><ul><li>Problems: works in the invisible dimensions of a people’s mind – hard to evaluate change </li></ul>
  16. 16. HSO Begins at the Limits of Traditional Military, Economic & Political Strategies <ul><li>Traditional Strategies for 20 th Century Symmetric Threats </li></ul><ul><li>Chain of Command </li></ul><ul><li>Common Sense – Linear thinking, characteristic institutional behavior </li></ul><ul><li>Information Networks – technology based (Codes) </li></ul><ul><li>Change – Simple force & Complicated physical, economic & political engineering </li></ul><ul><li>Counter Insurgency – Eliminate Terrorist </li></ul><ul><li>Meta-Strategies for 21st Century Asymmetric Threats </li></ul><ul><li>Chain of Ideas </li></ul><ul><li>Un-Common Sense - Non-linear thinking, self organizing, emergent behavior </li></ul><ul><li>Social Networks technology assisted (Cues) </li></ul><ul><li>Change – Based on unique, Complex dynamics of a People –Human Interface Facilitation </li></ul><ul><li>Counter Culture - Empower whole culture to self-eliminate support & growth of new terrorist </li></ul>
  17. 17. Human Stabilization Operations (HSO) Lies Beyond Simple and Complicated Change <ul><li>Three types of change: </li></ul><ul><li>Simple Change – Force in moving, destroying, threatening e.g. delivery of kinetic bombs. Core value strength of will, courage. </li></ul><ul><li>Complicated Change -Teams linking expertise or materials to accomplish goal e.g. putting a man on moon, logistics, physical infrastructure. Core value coordinated teams. </li></ul><ul><li>Complex Change – Moving two or more interacting human systems from vicious cycles like terrorism towards virtuous interactions by changing the game. Core Value Differential Diagnosis of Problem in the interaction of systems. </li></ul>
  18. 18. What Human Stabilization Operations (HSO) is Not <ul><li>Community Stabilization Operations of USAID focus on training and employment of locals – HSO addresses the deep structure of the way a culture orients. </li></ul><ul><li>Public Diplomacy is intended to “Sell” America – HSO’s objective is to empower a people. </li></ul><ul><li>Traditional Psy-Ops is based on Western individual identity – HSO maps the pillars of identity of the people particularly community based perspectives. </li></ul><ul><li>Reconstruction focuses on physical infrastructure – HSO emphasizes the social infrastructure yet can build off the physical. </li></ul><ul><li>Physical security may help stabilize but conflict/force creates a vacuum needing HSO to provide tools like self organization to fill void. </li></ul>
  19. 19. Why IS HSO Essential? – Law of Unintended Consequences <ul><li>In the non-linear, complex adaptive behavior of human systems the law of unintended consequences rules for those who do not understand the importance of social networks </li></ul><ul><li>Examples #1 Israel wanted to undermine the power of Fateh 18 years ago so it allowed Hamas’ social foundations to functions building social capitol and that is why Israel is now fighting Hamas. </li></ul><ul><li>Example #2 The cultural, ethnic, religious and community glue that empowered Vietnamese groups to fight the Viet Cong were overrun by American Civil-Military types who had a Western Model of Development to impose upon and ultimately destroyed social networks capable of resisting. </li></ul><ul><li>Example #3 In the West the struggle leading up to an election finds resolution in having a winner govern. In the Middle East the election is not the end of a struggle but just the beginning of conflict. </li></ul>
  20. 20. Human Stabilization Ops - Mission <ul><li>Strengthen civil society by building social and cultural infrastructures to withstand the impact of war, disaster and disease. HSO transforms conflict and vicious cycles of terror/violence through understanding the deep dynamics of the culture and its interaction with outsiders. </li></ul>
  21. 21. Human Stability Operations consists of the seven “C”s where our Strategic interventions are judged: <ul><li>Communications – Human-in-the-loop </li></ul><ul><li>Culture –Invisible Operating System by which we navigate and see the world </li></ul><ul><li>Computers – Networks forging Collective Intelligence </li></ul><ul><li>Community – the glue of trust and familiarity binding peoples together </li></ul><ul><li>Concern – Human closeness and genuine compassion </li></ul><ul><li>Competition – allocation of resources by eliminating bad ideas </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict – Constructive ways of resolving differing ideas, motives and interests. </li></ul>
  22. 22. HSO Goals – The Five ”R’s” <ul><li>Reconnect elements of civil society alienated and fragmented by conflict and disaster </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce deep-rooted racial, ethnic and ideological barriers </li></ul><ul><li>Restore the communication and connective tissue necessary to bridge divisions </li></ul><ul><li>Re-establish or forge a functioning society through strategic interventions </li></ul><ul><li>Therefore: </li></ul><ul><li>Relationships strengthened lay the ground work to withstand war and build peace. </li></ul>
  23. 23. Part II Statement of Work “ If we’re going to win, we have to fight this war differently,” Brig. Gen. John Nicholson, a commander in southern Afghanistan, Washington Post March 15, 2009
  24. 24. Statement of Work (SOW)#1 – Rapid Prototyping of Interventions <ul><ul><li>Goal - Rapid adaptation based on learning about the situation through action – A Cultural Change Learning Organization </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Objective – 21 Interventions in 36 months with 11 surviving with positive stabilization impact -500 batting average </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Resources – Projects range from $1-5 Million, 12 core team members, interface with a FFRDC (MITRE?) or minority contract vehicle, engineering/civil/military personnel and State Department Operations/foreign assistance operations </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. Sample Cultural Interventions to Empower a People* *Programs targeted for Afghanistan can be modified for Pakistan or other Muslim country. <ul><li>Weaving the Social Fabric </li></ul><ul><li>Forging Afghan Identity </li></ul><ul><li>Speaking in the Human Tongue </li></ul><ul><li>Educating from Islam’s Golden Age </li></ul><ul><li>Engaging the Deep Structure of a People </li></ul><ul><li>University without Walls/World Portal </li></ul><ul><li>Empowering Women in the Home </li></ul>
  26. 26. Weaving the Social Fabric #1 Whole Afghan Catalog: Access to Tools <ul><li>Example of Collaborative Media solidifying social infrastructure Vs. Mass Media </li></ul><ul><li>Paradigm shift in information distribution precursor of Internet, social networks </li></ul><ul><li>Decentralized intelligence with user generated content arising from grass roots </li></ul><ul><li>Catalyst transforming disparate individuals/ideas into a potent community </li></ul><ul><li>Gathering place for understanding problems and applying innovations </li></ul><ul><li>Given the right tools & DIY attitude anything is possible </li></ul><ul><li>End run around corruption, state based political power & bureaucratic bottlenecks </li></ul><ul><li>Create a role for the young of Afghanistan to link and strengthen country/region </li></ul>
  27. 27. Whole Afghan Catalog: Access to Tools <ul><li>Goal: Create a Collaborative Media system to strengthen social infrastructure, increase useful information, applied innovation and productivity of communities </li></ul><ul><li>Objective: Compile a good overview of available tools, ideas and resources to everyone needing them as a &quot;dream book&quot; of a new Afghanistan. </li></ul>
  28. 28. Solidifying Afghan’s Identity #1 “Know Thy History. It Will Make you See A Better Future” <ul><li>Virtual Museum of Afghanistan’s History </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Make an Internet accessible Exploratorium of artifacts and ways of life in Afghanistan’s history. Model this after CSI’s Virtual Baghdad Museum 2003 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Work with Omar Sultan, museum specialists and UN to preserve in the virtual world Afghanistan’s History and open to interactive educational channels for public access in-country and 6 million of the Afghanistan Diaspora. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Costs $50,000 prototype and plan for total project </li></ul></ul>
  29. 29. Solidify Afghanistan’s Identity #2 A People’s Story <ul><li>Oral History of a People Overcomes a Whole Society Suffering from Post Traumatic Disorder </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Like America during the Great Depression or current “Story Corps” work with US National Archives asking a person for their life story helps solidify identity by reflecting on their journey. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Training younger people in conducting oral history, sensitivity to interviewing women separately, giving each person a copy of their story and placing a copy in regional and Kabul’s National Archives, documentary on forging Afghanistan’s identity. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>What Does Thou Have to Say? $250,000 pilot in Eastern Afghanistan. </li></ul></ul>
  30. 30. Solidify Afghan’s Identity #3 One Day, A Thousand Photographers, 26 Million People - A Country in Pictures <ul><li>A Day in the Life </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Like the highly successful “A Day in the Life” photo series of various countries make the pictorial and sound tapestry of Afghanistan Example: </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Co-sponsor with Kodak or other camera/film company this day long event of recording the sights and sounds of a country for in-country and external audiences in an interactive Web Environment, books and traveling exhibits. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Organized by Kenneth Hyman, Margaret Mead’s photographer along with Omar Sultan in creating the National Archives in Afghanistan. $1 Million. </li></ul></ul>
  31. 31. Speaking in a Human Tongue #1 “First Voice” <ul><li>Project “First Voice” How the People of America and its Leadership can Speak Directly to the Afghan’s (and visa versa) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Direct from the Oval Office </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Sister City Expansion - SanDiego/Jalalabad </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Linking Afghan-Americans, in-country voices in “This I Believe. Speaking from the Heart” Radio Broadcasts. </li></ul></ul>
  32. 32. Speaking in a Human Tongue #2 Radio Dramas on the Taming of Lawlessness <ul><li>Building the Afghan Narrative. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>The Meta-Narrative of a People is key in standing up a culture to withstand hardship, threats and most importantly how one’s life fits into the larger picture </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>In America unique magazines, stories and graphics of our people helped create our country. Radio programs like Dragnet & Gun Smoke told the story of Law & Lawlessness. Afghanistan needs better Radio and digital MP3 content that moves towards a better future. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Content Prototypes of Radio, MP3, Talking/Comics Books, Programs working within the 27 narrative structures & working with Voice of America etc $100,000 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bin Laden Audio Tape March 2009, “ enemies, hypocrites, this media such as newspapers…radio stations and satellite channels, of which the most dangerous are the later two.” </li></ul></ul>
  33. 33. Educating from Islam’s Golden Age –Empowering the Afghan People <ul><li>Differentiating Modernizing from Westernizing Education </li></ul><ul><li>Difference between Madras and Empowering Education </li></ul><ul><li>Restoring Models of Education from Islam’s Golden Age based on discussion based inquiry. Koran “There are seven ways to understand every saying and Hadith (Doings) of the Prophet” </li></ul><ul><li>Build on CSI/Graham Leonard’s educational reforms in Jordan for Middle Schools – Critical Thinking, Critical Questioning – Great Books of the Middle Eastern/South Asian World. </li></ul><ul><li>Translation and publication of texts and establishing 12 prototype programs (Private schools like Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea Schools) </li></ul><ul><li>Research on Models of education, holding meetings and publications, radio programs and documentary filming Costs TBD. </li></ul>
  34. 34. Engaging the Deep Structure of a People Instead of offering intellectual engagement, our public diplomats want to offer Brittany Spears. <ul><li>Challenging intellectuals in-country & Diaspora about what the ideas & history of the people mean and how it is able to create a future. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Model #1 comes from Father George McLean, Catholic University with successful engagement with cultures in transformation and drawing out their ideas how to meet the Modern Condition. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Model #2 “Marshal Plan for the Mind” from George C. Minden (Cold War of Words), International Literary Center, Put 10 million books/magazines into Eastern Europe & Soviet Union &quot;Intellectuals in the East understood intellectuals in the West because they had been reading the same books.&quot; And from Mel Lasky, Congress on Cultural Freedom, Encounter Magazine, etc during the Cold War engagement with communists championing the West's cultural self-confidence and its open political debate. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Model #3 Yemeni Judicial Court radical Islamic arguments with Terrorists customized for Afghanistan via forums, documentaries and peer-to-peer distribution of counter arguments to the greater population </li></ul></ul>
  35. 35. University without Walls/World Portal <ul><li>University without Walls or “Free” University creates the alternative learning environments of a whole culture arising from grass roots level, practical topics. The idea is to take social networking and apply it to academia (peer-to-peer) </li></ul><ul><li>World Portal or Peace Footprint with Free Internet access around embassies and consulates initially organizing portals into the West’s orientation to issues, history and lives. </li></ul>
  36. 36. Empowering Woman in the Home <ul><li>Massive correspondence courses, internet, various media/mediums, fairs, “Tupperware” type gatherings/three cups of tea meetings to give women the tools of home education, home health, & home economics and parenting skills empowering the women in home. </li></ul><ul><li>Competitive analysis of communication channels into the home, levels of trusted networks and targeting of needed information content in Jalalabad and surrounding Pashto areas resulting in a prototype program that is scalable. </li></ul>
  37. 37. SOW #2 - Case studies of Models and Processes Underlying HSO <ul><li>Seven Case Studies of Models and Processes </li></ul><ul><li>Seven “Innovation Briefs” Two Page “What & How of Operational, Concrete Scalable Projects </li></ul><ul><li>Seven “Warriors of the Mind” Bios of individuals who changed the game and ecology of interactions positively. </li></ul><ul><li>Resources Approximately $10,000 per study total $250,000 </li></ul>
  38. 38. SOW #3 – Vision and Integration into Military Strategy, Operations, Policy & Doctrine <ul><li>Human Stabilization Operations is integral to a longer-term view of Security - Based on 15 January 2009 Capstone Concept to Guide Future Joint Force Development by M.G. Mullen, Joint Chief </li></ul><ul><li>HSO should work with Joint Forces Command as it begins testing the concept in a series of experiments this year </li></ul><ul><li>“ War is therefore not action against an inanimate object, but is always the collision of two living forces.” & “Conflict cannot be solved solely on military assets.” (Capstone) </li></ul><ul><li>Complex, living systems thinking must in-form strategy formation, technology choice and intervention practices. </li></ul><ul><li>A new generation of culturally based strategies empowered by network enhancing technologies must be created, tested and embedded. </li></ul><ul><li>Cultural Strategy Institute’s deep network of whole systems thinkers, human-in-the-loop technologists, and social system managers will conduct seminars, write white papers and undertake rapid prototyping interventions in living systems to support the Joint Force Capstone Concept. </li></ul>
  39. 39. SOW #4 –Training at Civil/Military, Contractor and Joint Chiefs Levels <ul><li>Complex, Culturally based training requires new forms of technology assisted experiences to see the social dynamics of situations, perform the differential diagnosis, manage intervention strategies/resources over time and coordinate with military/non-military/civil people and institutions. </li></ul><ul><li>Based on Dr. Graham Leonard’s success working with the Tennessee National Guard before and during their Iraq tour in cultural training on honor and cultural cues, the program will be expanded. </li></ul><ul><li>CSI will work with the Civil/Military leaders and outside non-governmental resources to integral new technologies for training and advise on actual training for joint operations in non-traditional situations. </li></ul><ul><li>Recommendations for DoD internal operations and National Policy papers on needed training e.g. new National Defense Act focusing on needed language, cultural and “living systems” thinking. </li></ul>
  40. 40. SOW# 5 –: Partnership (Disaster/HSO) Development & Information Systems Demonstrations with Non-Traditional Organizations <ul><li>Human Stabilization Partnership Operation’s primary purpose is to guide network development and experimentation by: </li></ul><ul><li>Establishing a common framework for military and civilian professionals for thinking about future joint operations, </li></ul><ul><li>Visualizing future joint disaster relief, public/private engagement for in-country operations for policymakers and others with an interest in the employment of military resources, </li></ul><ul><li>Establishing a conceptual foundation for subordinate joint and total Service concepts, and </li></ul><ul><li>Motivating and guiding the study, experimentation and evaluation of joint public/private concepts and capabilities. </li></ul><ul><li>Activation of a-symmetric counter resources. </li></ul>
  41. 41. Part III Ideas Underlying Human Stabilization Operations Only Networks can Overcome Networks
  42. 42. “ Stabilization” is Integral to DoD Doctrine but Poorly Understood <ul><li>HSO is Integral to the Capstone Concept For Joint Forces 15 January 2009 by Joint Chiefs, A. M. Mullen - “ how the joint force will operate in the complex, changing and uncertain environments of the future …Conflict today may not be solved solely with military assets.” </li></ul><ul><li>Security Stabilization is the use of force to open the space for Human Stabilization to empower civil/business networks to fill. </li></ul><ul><li>HSO may start with traditional humanitarian aid of food, clothing, water and shelter but must build sustainable networks that self organize e.g. solar cookers locally manufactured. </li></ul><ul><li>Stabilizing and Building Human Networks begins at the limits of power, control, utility of force and systems engineering by strategic intervention in decentralized, invisible dynamics of complex human systems </li></ul><ul><li>Failed states may harbor terrorist but failed cultures allow terrorist to grow out of the very fabric of its cultural and social networks </li></ul>
  43. 43. Need for HSO is Based on Three Systems Observations <ul><li>Observation #1 Difference between terrorist focused and ground of terrorism focused strategy. </li></ul><ul><li>External force may take out existing terrorist but new terrorist grow from the “mother” society (Rumsfeld memo). </li></ul><ul><li>“Failed cultures” is a more likely explanation than “Failed States.” </li></ul>
  44. 44. Observation #1 Difference between Terrorist and Ground of Terrorism Strategy based on Schismogenesis <ul><li>Schismogensis literally is “creation of division” by growth of a competing system that is integrally linked to “mother” system. </li></ul><ul><li>Schismogenesis occurs when the internal contradictions of social/individual identity aggravated by forces like modernity cannot be resolved by social acculturation, family relations, education and conflict resolution means. </li></ul><ul><li>Schismogenesis means for every terrorist “taken out” new ones will be grown therefore culturally based HSOs are required (analogy - Lobster Claw regeneration). </li></ul><ul><li>Ergo complex interactions of stabilization and empowerment of a culture improves its own “immune system” to stamp out its bad ideas must complement simple change –force and complicated change – systems engineered solutions. </li></ul><ul><li>HSO creates strategic interventions to dampen the inevitable self destructive behaviors of schismogenesis in Human systems </li></ul>
  45. 45. Observation #2 Total Terror System consists of three highly interlinked subsystems requiring a comprehensive strategy for use of force and stabilization. <ul><li>Obvious visible war of terrorist-nation-state action/reaction creating an a positive feedback loop (Terror race replaces arms race) </li></ul><ul><li>Invisible cultural system activated by terrorist act designed to mobilize extremist in responding state with escalating use of force in martial arts maneuver to use responding states strengths against itself (public airplanes, news media) (Stabilization means inoculating public from terror act manipulation in US/West) </li></ul><ul><li>Invisible cultural system of terrorist host is mobilized to provide resources and recruits from the rubble of the nation-states over reaction (stabilization means strengthening human networks and the art of assembly to solve problems e.g. Afghanistan) </li></ul><ul><li>Total Terror Management requires understanding interaction of all three subsystems (whole systems) and the complex, adaptive self emergent properties that do not fit within our Western rational, logical approaches. </li></ul>
  46. 46. Observation #2 Total Terror Management system is based on addressing the invisible dynamics by strengthening and stabilizing the terror hunter and terrorist cultures <ul><li>The Terror Race will accelerate in destructiveness as the Afghanistan Surge progresses and is matched by increases in strength and capability of Taliban/al Qaeda. </li></ul><ul><li>A similar Surge is needed in building, repairing and strengthening social networks to counter destructive force of the Military Surge in all linked cultures. </li></ul><ul><li>Old thinking must be replaced by new: Chain of Command to Chain of Ideas; Control to Empowerment; Net-centric Warfare to Network enabled conversations; centralized intelligence to decentralized intelligence; finished products versus access to tools; propaganda to facilitating new narratives; Answers into questions, Us Vs Them into interlocking relationships and moving from “Everything is relative” to “Everything is relational.” </li></ul>
  47. 47. Observation #3 Only Networks can Overcome Networks <ul><li>In asymmetric warfare the normal “power” of hierarchical institutions is subverted by agility of networks “He who learns fastest wins.” </li></ul><ul><li>Net-centric Warfare may provide more flexibility to terror hunters but does not stabilize terror host culture – needed are Net-Enabled communications. </li></ul><ul><li>Physical infrastructure (Information Communication Technologies, roads, water electricity) enable social infrastructure but only if the “last mile” problem of building social networks is accomplished. </li></ul>
  48. 48. The power of networks is based on the difference between bloody revolutionary change and the sustainable silent revolutions that change the direction of history <ul><li>Silent Revolutions of technique, method, interaction, habit, ways of seeing, perspective constituting new social networks are the sustainable revolutions like the scientific method, capitalism, and technologies. </li></ul><ul><li>The American Revolution consisted of two parts; 1) the visible warfare of General Washington against the British and 2) the invisible networks created by Committees of Correspondence and the Great Conversation of the 13 Colonies that the British did not understand. </li></ul><ul><li>The Invisible Pattern of Interactions must be attended to as seen in the Treaty of Versailles setting stage for Hitler and WWII by de-stabilizing the German culture or McArthur transforming Japan after WWII into an economic warrior instead of a military one through commercial network empowerment. </li></ul>
  49. 49. Phase I & II Human Stabilization Operations Address the Ground of Terrorism but with Differing Objectives <ul><li>Phase I Security Stabilization best summarized by Lt. Col. Paul YingLing, “if I had to condense [my advice] into a pithy little bullet it would be: don’t train on finding the enemy; train on finding your friends and they will help you find your enemy.” But little long term stabilization </li></ul><ul><li>Phase II Social Stabilization - standing up a society/culture by empowering the social infrastructure through changed relationship with their core narratives, rebuilding identity, new forms of self governance via tools to solve problems </li></ul>
  50. 50. Conclusions: Human Stabilization Operations (HSO) <ul><li>HSO arises out of fault lines of the limits of existing military doctrine, the assumptions embodied in the techniques (systems engineering) and tools (high kill ratio weapons) pointing to the limits of the utility of force. </li></ul><ul><li>Complex human systems change of HSO focuses on empowering and building the social networks to defeat the ground of terrorism. </li></ul><ul><li>Systems do not like vacuums and when a vacuum is created by force the space will be filled by either vicious or virtuous human interactions. </li></ul><ul><li>CAN HSO BE DEVELOPED AS A VIABLE TOOL IN THE TOTAL TERROR MANAGEMENT ARNESAL OF CHANGE FOR THE UNITED STATES? </li></ul>
  51. 51. Contact Information: Lowell F. Christy Jr. Ph.D. Cultural Strategies Institute 14915 Berryville Road Seneca, Maryland 20874-3501 USA 301 869-9098 Cell 301 529-0474 [email_address] Cultural Strategies Institute (CSI) Dedicated to Social and Cultural Transformation