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IT Trends for 2011: Things Might Be
       Very Different Today
              Dr. Charles Severance
           Clinical Associate Professor
   University of Michigan School of Information
                www.dr-chuck.com
         http://www.slideshare.net/csev
A Fractured Fairy Tale of
         Internet History




 Fractured Fairy Tales presented familiar fairy
tales and children's stories, but with storylines
 altered and modernized for humorous effect.

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rocky_and_Bullwinkle_Show
Pick one of the following moments in Internet
                    History: (a) the building of the National Science
                    Foundation's NSFNet for academic use, (b) the
                    creation of the World-Wide-Web at CERN, or
                   (c) the development of the Mosaic web browser
                    for Macintosh and PC computers. Assume that
                   the event never happened and describe how you
                      think that the current network environment
                                would be different today.
Brazil (1985)
           http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wh2b1eZFUM
What year was this ad on
   Television? What
 company made the ad?
           http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYNUcFMCIzw
                                                        0:30
Internet: TCI Show 08
    http://www.vimeo.com/4275919




        December 11-14, 1995
http://www.w3.org/Conferences/WWW4/
                                      1:22
Research Networks
•   1960's - 1980's

•   What is the best protocol fairly to solve
    all of the competing needs?

•   Should we go with commercial solutions
    from IBM or Digital Equipment? Or
    should we build something “open”?

•   ARPANET was an exclusive Club

                                                Source: Unknown
University of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign
Supercomputers...

•   As science needed faster and faster
    computers, more universities asked
    for their own Multimillion dollar
    supercomputer

•   The National Science Foundation
    asked, “Why not buy a few
    supercomputers, and build up a
    national shared network?”
                                          CC: BY-SA: Rama (Wikipedia)
                                          http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/
                                          2.0/fr/deed.en_GB
NCSA - Innovation
•   We now “assume” the Internet and
    the Web - it was not so easy...

•   A number of breakthrough
    innovations came from the National
    Center for Supercomputing
    Applications at Urbana-Champaign,
    Illinois                                   Larry Smarr, NCSA

•   High Performance Computing and
    the Internet were deeply linked
                                    http://www.vimeo.com/6982439   (2:51)
University of
                 Michigan




 University of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign
NSFNet @ University of Michigan
•   University of Michigan failed to get one
    of the five Supercomputer Centers

•   Partners: University of Michigan, Merit
    Network, IBM Corporation, MCI, and
    State of Michigan

•   Proposed a $55M high-speed network
    for $15M

•   Operated from 1988-1995                    http://www.vimeo.com/11044819

                                                                         2:49
Source: http://hpwren.ucsd.edu/~hwb/NSFNET/NSFNET-200711Summary/
NSF Net

•   NSFNet was the first network that was “inclusive”

•   Standardized on TCP/IP

•   Initially the goal was all research universities

•   In the early 1990’s commercial companies (Internet Service Providers)
    could join and resell service
NSFNET T1
 Backbone and
   Regional
Networks, 1991




http://virdir.ncsa.uiuc.edu/virdir/raw-material/networking/nsfnet/NSFNET_1.htm
University of
                                CERN
                 Michigan




 University of Illinois
at Urbana-Champaign
The Beginning of the Web: CERN
•   The Internet was infrastructure -
    the web gave the Internet a “user
    interface and URLs

•   The Web was invented at CERN by
    Tim Berners-Lee and Robert                           Robert Cailliau
    Cailliau                                                CERN

•   CERN developed browsers and
    servers - with a goal of worldwide
    hyperlinked documents
                                                                           (1:59)
                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2GylLq59rI
University of
                                       CERN
                        Michigan

Stanford


        University of Illinois
       at Urbana-Champaign
The First Web Server in America

•   Stanford Linear Accelerator
    (SLAC) - Dr. Paul Kunz

•   It was a database of 300,000
    research papers                                  Paul Kunz
                                                       SLAC
•   December 12, 1991

•   The first "search engine"?

                http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOgqP2yoKwc       (2:22)
1993: Gopher is Dominant

 •   Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) Meeting

     •   March 29-April 2, 1993 - Columbus, Ohio, USA (638 attendees)

     •   Gopher BOF - 200 attendees

     •   World-Wide Web BOF - 15 attendees including Tim Berners-Lee

 •   P.S. DVD is invented this year

http://www.ietf.org/proceedings/26.pdf
University of
                                       CERN
                        Michigan

Stanford


        University of Illinois
       at Urbana-Champaign
Mosaic - Netscape - Mozilla - Firefox
•   Mosaic was developed at NCSA - Unix /
    Windows / Mac - Easy Install

•   NCSA created the httpd web server which is
    the basic for the Apache web server

•   While most of the NCSA programmers               Joseph Hardin, UM
    formed Netscape and made their fortunes,
    NCSA released their browser for free and
    focused on building standards to keep the web
    open
                      http://www.vimeo.com/7053726                 3:11
1994:Year of the Web
•   Netscape Founded - April 4, 1994

•   WWW Conf: May 25-26-27 1994, CERN,
    Geneva (Switzerland)                         0:49

•   WWW Conf: October 17-19, 1994, Chicago, IL

•   October 1994, Tim Berners-Lee founded the
    (W3C) at MIT

•   November 8, 1994 - Windows 95 beta 2
                                                 0:54
•   Larry Smarr wanted to make supercomputers available
    to physicists

•   Unversity of Michigan snuck in 1.54Mb/sec instead of
    56kb/sec backbone for the NSFNet

•   Tim Berners-Less and Robert Cailliau were building a
    system for network hosted documentation

•   Paul Kunz was trying to make his article database easier
    to use

•   Joseph Hardin wanted to make supercomputers more
    user friendly
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYNUcFMCIzw
What is the flaw of
the logic of the 'You
 Will' commercials?
         http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYNUcFMCIzw
Monopoly and
innovation are seldom
     co-located.
          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYNUcFMCIzw
My Dystopian Present
•   The network would be from AT&T

•   Our laptop would be from AT&T

•   Our PDA would be from AT&T

•   E-Mail addresses would be numeric and have an area code (517)
    684-0982-4016 - there would be no spam - caller id for e-mail

•   We would be charged for every byte we transferred
My Dystopian Present
•   Hardware would work flawlessly

•   Hardware would be seldom be upgraded

•   Technology hardware would be very uniform

•   No user-servicable parts inside- repairs would be at a AT&T service
    center

•   There would be no free Wifi at airports - nothing would be free
1997: The Web Land Rush...

•   In the late 1990’s there were many
    fortunes to be made - simply by being
    first in a market

•   Many things were “novel” when it was
    re-invented on the web

•   New brands were quickly established
    and became dominant
                           http://www.vimeo.com/7048422
                                                          1:49
Clouds and The Future
Awesome Cloud Laptop
Imagine a awesome future where a
  laptop had no local storage, was      Google CR-48
always connected, data in the cloud     December 2010


                                      FAIL
 applications in the cloud, nothing
  to patch or upgrade ever, always
 perfectly backed up. Long battery
  life. No problem if hardware is
           lost or broken.

           Perfect, right?
Slinging Buzzwords is Not Enough




                                                        FAIL
                                   http://www.google.com/chromeos/pilot-program-forbusiness.html
You're So Vain
 You walked into the party like you
     were walking into a yacht.
Your hand strategically placed below
             one eye.
    Your scarf it was apricot....


   I had some dreams, they were
        clouds in my pocket
         clouds in my coffee
     Clouds in my pocket, and...
      Clouds in my coffee, and...
1987
                Convex C3800 Supercomputer
               512MB-4GB Ram, 2-8 Processors,
                    240 MFlops per CPU
                     Up to 32GB Disk




IBM PS/2 - 16Mhz 286
1987
 Convex C3800 Supercomputer
512MB-4GB Ram, 2-8 Processors,
     240 MFlops per CPU
      Up to 32GB Disk

           2011
          Apple iPad2
   512 Mb Ram, 2 Processors
        1 Ghz Per CPU
     Up to 64GB storage
10 Hour Battery Life, 1.3 pounds
The night Max wore his wolf suit and made
    mischief of one kind or another...




    What are the last words of
   “Where the Wild Things Are”?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRwPSFpLX8I

                                                             2011
                                                  Google has millions of low cost
                                             processors forming a cloud that seems to
                                             border on intelligence in terms of finding
                                              the most relevant historical information.

                                                             2031
                                                  I had some dreams, they were
                                                       clouds in my pocket
                                                    Clouds in my pocket, and...
Thank You
           Dr. Charles Severance
University of Michigan School of Information
             www.dr-chuck.com
Recommended Viewing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNHR6IQJGZs




                          http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka4tCkYXHiE
Moar Dr. Chuck Videos...

   http://www.vimeo.com/7307422



          http://www.vimeo.com/3800796



   http://www.vimeo.com/6215179

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IT Trends for 2011: Things Might Be Very Different Today

  • 1. IT Trends for 2011: Things Might Be Very Different Today Dr. Charles Severance Clinical Associate Professor University of Michigan School of Information www.dr-chuck.com http://www.slideshare.net/csev
  • 2. A Fractured Fairy Tale of Internet History Fractured Fairy Tales presented familiar fairy tales and children's stories, but with storylines altered and modernized for humorous effect. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rocky_and_Bullwinkle_Show
  • 3. Pick one of the following moments in Internet History: (a) the building of the National Science Foundation's NSFNet for academic use, (b) the creation of the World-Wide-Web at CERN, or (c) the development of the Mosaic web browser for Macintosh and PC computers. Assume that the event never happened and describe how you think that the current network environment would be different today. Brazil (1985) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wh2b1eZFUM
  • 4. What year was this ad on Television? What company made the ad? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYNUcFMCIzw 0:30
  • 5. Internet: TCI Show 08 http://www.vimeo.com/4275919 December 11-14, 1995 http://www.w3.org/Conferences/WWW4/ 1:22
  • 6. Research Networks • 1960's - 1980's • What is the best protocol fairly to solve all of the competing needs? • Should we go with commercial solutions from IBM or Digital Equipment? Or should we build something “open”? • ARPANET was an exclusive Club Source: Unknown
  • 7. University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
  • 8. Supercomputers... • As science needed faster and faster computers, more universities asked for their own Multimillion dollar supercomputer • The National Science Foundation asked, “Why not buy a few supercomputers, and build up a national shared network?” CC: BY-SA: Rama (Wikipedia) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/ 2.0/fr/deed.en_GB
  • 9. NCSA - Innovation • We now “assume” the Internet and the Web - it was not so easy... • A number of breakthrough innovations came from the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois Larry Smarr, NCSA • High Performance Computing and the Internet were deeply linked http://www.vimeo.com/6982439 (2:51)
  • 10. University of Michigan University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
  • 11. NSFNet @ University of Michigan • University of Michigan failed to get one of the five Supercomputer Centers • Partners: University of Michigan, Merit Network, IBM Corporation, MCI, and State of Michigan • Proposed a $55M high-speed network for $15M • Operated from 1988-1995 http://www.vimeo.com/11044819 2:49
  • 13. NSF Net • NSFNet was the first network that was “inclusive” • Standardized on TCP/IP • Initially the goal was all research universities • In the early 1990’s commercial companies (Internet Service Providers) could join and resell service
  • 14. NSFNET T1 Backbone and Regional Networks, 1991 http://virdir.ncsa.uiuc.edu/virdir/raw-material/networking/nsfnet/NSFNET_1.htm
  • 15. University of CERN Michigan University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
  • 16. The Beginning of the Web: CERN • The Internet was infrastructure - the web gave the Internet a “user interface and URLs • The Web was invented at CERN by Tim Berners-Lee and Robert Robert Cailliau Cailliau CERN • CERN developed browsers and servers - with a goal of worldwide hyperlinked documents (1:59) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2GylLq59rI
  • 17. University of CERN Michigan Stanford University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
  • 18. The First Web Server in America • Stanford Linear Accelerator (SLAC) - Dr. Paul Kunz • It was a database of 300,000 research papers Paul Kunz SLAC • December 12, 1991 • The first "search engine"? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOgqP2yoKwc (2:22)
  • 19. 1993: Gopher is Dominant • Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) Meeting • March 29-April 2, 1993 - Columbus, Ohio, USA (638 attendees) • Gopher BOF - 200 attendees • World-Wide Web BOF - 15 attendees including Tim Berners-Lee • P.S. DVD is invented this year http://www.ietf.org/proceedings/26.pdf
  • 20. University of CERN Michigan Stanford University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
  • 21. Mosaic - Netscape - Mozilla - Firefox • Mosaic was developed at NCSA - Unix / Windows / Mac - Easy Install • NCSA created the httpd web server which is the basic for the Apache web server • While most of the NCSA programmers Joseph Hardin, UM formed Netscape and made their fortunes, NCSA released their browser for free and focused on building standards to keep the web open http://www.vimeo.com/7053726 3:11
  • 22. 1994:Year of the Web • Netscape Founded - April 4, 1994 • WWW Conf: May 25-26-27 1994, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland) 0:49 • WWW Conf: October 17-19, 1994, Chicago, IL • October 1994, Tim Berners-Lee founded the (W3C) at MIT • November 8, 1994 - Windows 95 beta 2 0:54
  • 23. Larry Smarr wanted to make supercomputers available to physicists • Unversity of Michigan snuck in 1.54Mb/sec instead of 56kb/sec backbone for the NSFNet • Tim Berners-Less and Robert Cailliau were building a system for network hosted documentation • Paul Kunz was trying to make his article database easier to use • Joseph Hardin wanted to make supercomputers more user friendly
  • 25. What is the flaw of the logic of the 'You Will' commercials? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYNUcFMCIzw
  • 26. Monopoly and innovation are seldom co-located. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYNUcFMCIzw
  • 27. My Dystopian Present • The network would be from AT&T • Our laptop would be from AT&T • Our PDA would be from AT&T • E-Mail addresses would be numeric and have an area code (517) 684-0982-4016 - there would be no spam - caller id for e-mail • We would be charged for every byte we transferred
  • 28. My Dystopian Present • Hardware would work flawlessly • Hardware would be seldom be upgraded • Technology hardware would be very uniform • No user-servicable parts inside- repairs would be at a AT&T service center • There would be no free Wifi at airports - nothing would be free
  • 29. 1997: The Web Land Rush... • In the late 1990’s there were many fortunes to be made - simply by being first in a market • Many things were “novel” when it was re-invented on the web • New brands were quickly established and became dominant http://www.vimeo.com/7048422 1:49
  • 30. Clouds and The Future
  • 31. Awesome Cloud Laptop Imagine a awesome future where a laptop had no local storage, was Google CR-48 always connected, data in the cloud December 2010 FAIL applications in the cloud, nothing to patch or upgrade ever, always perfectly backed up. Long battery life. No problem if hardware is lost or broken. Perfect, right?
  • 32. Slinging Buzzwords is Not Enough FAIL http://www.google.com/chromeos/pilot-program-forbusiness.html
  • 33. You're So Vain You walked into the party like you were walking into a yacht. Your hand strategically placed below one eye. Your scarf it was apricot.... I had some dreams, they were clouds in my pocket clouds in my coffee Clouds in my pocket, and... Clouds in my coffee, and...
  • 34. 1987 Convex C3800 Supercomputer 512MB-4GB Ram, 2-8 Processors, 240 MFlops per CPU Up to 32GB Disk IBM PS/2 - 16Mhz 286
  • 35. 1987 Convex C3800 Supercomputer 512MB-4GB Ram, 2-8 Processors, 240 MFlops per CPU Up to 32GB Disk 2011 Apple iPad2 512 Mb Ram, 2 Processors 1 Ghz Per CPU Up to 64GB storage 10 Hour Battery Life, 1.3 pounds
  • 36. The night Max wore his wolf suit and made mischief of one kind or another... What are the last words of “Where the Wild Things Are”?
  • 37.
  • 38. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRwPSFpLX8I 2011 Google has millions of low cost processors forming a cloud that seems to border on intelligence in terms of finding the most relevant historical information. 2031 I had some dreams, they were clouds in my pocket Clouds in my pocket, and...
  • 39. Thank You Dr. Charles Severance University of Michigan School of Information www.dr-chuck.com
  • 40. Recommended Viewing http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNHR6IQJGZs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka4tCkYXHiE
  • 41. Moar Dr. Chuck Videos... http://www.vimeo.com/7307422 http://www.vimeo.com/3800796 http://www.vimeo.com/6215179