Possible Scenarios on the Future ofthe Panatag Island (Spratly) usingJim Dator’s Four Archetypes ofAlternative FuturesCent...
Content of Presentation• Panatag Island Dispute: What’s ina name? What lies beneath? Whatare their claims? TheControversie...
What’s in a name?Philippines – Panatag IslandChina – Nansha IslandTaiwan – Minzhu JiaoVietnam – Hoang Sa / Troung SaMalays...
The Panatag Island / WestPhilippine Sea
What Lies Beneath?
SEABORNE LIFELINE FORCONTINUED ECONOMICGROWTH
Seaborne Lifeline for CEGSeaborne Lifelinediminishing oilsupplyexplore andexploit allresourcepotentialSupply energychain f...
Oil Race instead of ArmsRace
Country Existing and New Developments in the Panatag Shoal and the West PhilippineSea (South China Sea)Philippines Malampa...
DANGEROUS GAMES,DANGEROUS GROUNDS
DangerousGames,DangerousGroundsrenewed, newmilitaryalliances andtreatiesincreasemilitaryspending andbuild-upSpy Games andG...
Arms Race and Local Warsunder Informationalizedconditions
FIGHT FIRE WITH WATERAND THE ICONIC STATUSQUO
Conserver Scenario
Conserver/DisciplinedMarineReservetake themoral highgrounddesire ofthe worldcommunityNature ParkPantagreserved forpeaceful...
THE “Z” SCENARIO: DEEPDIPLOMACY,DEMILITARIZATION ANDJOINT DEVELOPMENT
“I do not fear that the flowingclouds may block my vision,for where I stand is the top ofthe mountain”Ma KeqingChinese Amb...
the Zdeepdiplomacydemilitarizationjointdevelopmentcommunalleadershipsystema conversationof peace,friendship andcooperation...
MaramingSalamat Po!
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures
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Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures

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A copy of my presentation at the Asia Pacific Foresight Conference held in the City of Perth, West Australia.

The presentation discussed some possible scenarios on the future of the Panatag shoal using Dator;s Four Future Archetypes.

Abstract

The Panatag Island controversy (Spratly Island dispute) is creating a distasteful spectacle in the international community. The ruckus commotion in the disputed triangle chain of reefs have caused deep diplomatic divide between the six claimant nations. The tension that was once mutual is now visual and magnified by the sporadic show of deception and force by the Philippines, China, Vietnam and Taiwan at the diplomatic and military levels. The spat is now the news hour and the remarkable story line of Asia. The Panatag Island dispute has disrupted the relative peace of the region and will, in a multifaceted way, affect the future of Asia.

This paper explored possible scenarios on the future of the Panatag island controversy. Using Jim Dator’s four archetypes of alternative futures it asked the question what are the possible scenarios in Asia when viewed from the Panatag Island controversy? What are the consequences of a continued economic growth, collapse, conserver and transformation scenarios at the Panatag Island? What are the likely impacts of these scenarios on other regional disputes like the Senkaku Island and the Takeshima Island chain of island dispute? What are the likely impacts of the scenarios on the future of US-China relations? What scenario needs to happen for claimant nation-states to lessen and gain from the dispute? While there are other scenarios beyond Dator’s alternative futrues, this paper will only explore possible scenarios using Dator’s alternative futures archetypes.

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Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator's Four Archetypes of Alternative Futures

  1. 1. Possible Scenarios on the Future ofthe Panatag Island (Spratly) usingJim Dator’s Four Archetypes ofAlternative FuturesCenter for Engaged Foresight;Vedasto J. Samonte School of Graduate Studies,Northwestern University, Philippines
  2. 2. Content of Presentation• Panatag Island Dispute: What’s ina name? What lies beneath? Whatare their claims? TheControversies?• Dator’s Four Future Archetypes• Panatag Shoal’s AlternativeFutures• Conclusion
  3. 3. What’s in a name?Philippines – Panatag IslandChina – Nansha IslandTaiwan – Minzhu JiaoVietnam – Hoang Sa / Troung SaMalaysia – Tereumbo Layang LayangBrunei – Spratly Island (Louissa Reef)
  4. 4. The Panatag Island / WestPhilippine Sea
  5. 5. What Lies Beneath?
  6. 6. SEABORNE LIFELINE FORCONTINUED ECONOMICGROWTH
  7. 7. Seaborne Lifeline for CEGSeaborne Lifelinediminishing oilsupplyexplore andexploit allresourcepotentialSupply energychain for thenew globaleconomic hubincrease foodconsumptionand povertylevelsalternativesource for newenergy andresoucespurelycommercialand liberalize
  8. 8. Oil Race instead of ArmsRace
  9. 9. Country Existing and New Developments in the Panatag Shoal and the West PhilippineSea (South China Sea)Philippines Malampaya and Camago Natural Gas and Condensate Fields (US Oil GiantShell operates Malampaya and Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, and Chevronhave already invested money and technology in the South China Sea )China Cnooc 981, self-developed oil rig drilling platform began drilling at a depth of1,500 meters in the Paracel Islands; Cnooc is China’s largest offshore oilproducerVietnam Vietnam and India inked an agreement in 2011 to expand and promote oilexploration in the South China Sea. Vietnam and Russia also inked similarcommercial agreement.Taiwan Taiwan does not have any commercial projects at present nor intends to pursueone to prevent a direct confrontation with China; Occupies Itu Aba Island, thelargest Island in the Panatag Shoal.Malaysia Malaysia Natural Gas Fields located offshore Sarawak; Malaysia is currentlythe biggest oil producer in the regionBrunei Brunei Petroleum inked an agreement with China CNOOC for gas and oilcommercial exploration. Brunei is the third largest oil exporter in SEA andfourth-largest exporter in natural gas.
  10. 10. DANGEROUS GAMES,DANGEROUS GROUNDS
  11. 11. DangerousGames,DangerousGroundsrenewed, newmilitaryalliances andtreatiesincreasemilitaryspending andbuild-upSpy Games andGoodwill VisitsMeddling andThird PartyInterventionCyber Wars andVandalismincreasenumber ofmilitary andnaval exercisesTrade SanctionsHaltedFlights/TourCancellationsBanana SplitThe USrepositioning toAsia-PacificRegionChinasaggressivemilitaryexpansionUnrestrictedWarfareStrategy
  12. 12. Arms Race and Local Warsunder Informationalizedconditions
  13. 13. FIGHT FIRE WITH WATERAND THE ICONIC STATUSQUO
  14. 14. Conserver Scenario
  15. 15. Conserver/DisciplinedMarineReservetake themoral highgrounddesire ofthe worldcommunityNature ParkPantagreserved forpeacefulpurposesSpratly FishBankNo winstandoff /Iconic StatusQuoMonumentfor Peace,FriendshipandCooperationUN worldheritagesiteGlobalCenter forStudy onGlobalWarming
  16. 16. THE “Z” SCENARIO: DEEPDIPLOMACY,DEMILITARIZATION ANDJOINT DEVELOPMENT
  17. 17. “I do not fear that the flowingclouds may block my vision,for where I stand is the top ofthe mountain”Ma KeqingChinese Ambassadorto the Philippines (2012)
  18. 18. the Zdeepdiplomacydemilitarizationjointdevelopmentcommunalleadershipsystema conversationof peace,friendship andcooperationregionalcooperationAsian Union /Regionalgovernancesystemdispute ofrelationsrather thanthings
  19. 19. MaramingSalamat Po!

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