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State of Rural Minnesota 2013-full report

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The State of Rural Minnesota 2013 is a presentation produced annually by the Center for Rural Policy & Development in St. Peter, MN, showing how population, income, poverty, education, and many other indicators vary across the state.

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State of Rural Minnesota 2013-full report

  1. 1. State of Rural Minnesota Report 2013
  2. 2. Who we are In 1997, a group of rural Minnesota advocates came together to create a rural policy “think tank” that would provide policy makers, rural advocates and concerned citizens with an objective, unbiased and politically “unspun” examination of contemporary rural issues.  Based in St. Peter, Minn.  Non-partisan, non-profit policy research organization  Dedicated to providing Minnesota’s policy makers with an unbiased evaluation of issues from a rural perspective.  The Center is recognized as a leading resource for rural policy research and development.Center for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  3. 3. A State of Diverse Regions   Ruralplexes: Regions based on common characteristics. Developed for the Center by former State Demographer Tom Gillaspy and State Economist Tom Stinson.   The State of Rural Minnesota uses these regions to show major characteristics and trends of Minnesota’s people and economy.Center for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  4. 4. Growth of Minnesota’s regions, 1900 to 2010 450.0% 400.0% 350.0% 300.0% Metroplex 250.0% Southeast River Valley Southwestern Cornbelt 200.0% Northwest Valley 150.0% Up North Central Lakes 100.0% 50.0% 0.0% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 -50.0%Center for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  5. 5. Demographics Population change, 1960-2010 (U.S. Census) Population, Population, Region Percent change 1960 2010 Metroplex 1,854,630 3,634,786 96.0% Southeast River 507,663 552,682 8.9% Valley Southwestern 218,331 164,341 -24.7% Cornbelt Northwest Valley 271,849 292,150 7.5% Up North 359,839 363,617 1.0% Central Lakes 201,552 296,349 47.0% Minnesota 3,413,864 5,303,925 55.4%Center for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  6. 6. Population change, 1990-2010 !"#$%&%(% -/((,&0 E&,$"A !"#$%&% ()$%*&&+, 6"4,)"33 ?(M%!&A/, H$3(4"7/ 8&3# 8$00/01(&0 2&&# !"#$ -&&.)/.)/01 E$+%!"#$ ;(",." 23$"45"($4   From 1990 to 2010, the state’s F&47"0 6")0&7$0 JA99"4+ 2",, 23"B H$.#$4 population grew by nearly 1 :/(#/0 million, to 5.3 million. The most 24&5%*/01 2"43(&0 dramatic growth was seen in the *"+$0" <(($4%="/3 Twin Cities suburbs, stretching up */3#/0 8/0$ =&++ 6/33$% into the Central Lakes area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enter for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  7. 7. Long-term population change, 1960-2010 -/((,&0 E&,$"A !"#$%&% ()$%*&&+, 6"4,)"33 ?(M%!&A/, H$3(4"7/ 8&3# 8$00/01(&0 2&&# !"#$ -&&.)/.)/01 E$+%!"#$ ;(",." 23$"45"($4 F&47"0 6")0&7$0 JA99"4+ 2",,   Looking at how the population has 23"B H$.#$4 changed since 1960 shows the :/(#/0 relentless shift from the rural 24&5%*/01 2"43(&0 counties to the urban and *"+$0" <(($4%="/3 suburban cores of the Twin Cities, */3#/0 8/0$ =&++ St. Cloud and Rochester. Sherburne County has seen the 6/33$% >4"0( 6&44/,&0 !"., -"0"9$. G&A13", ?($@$0, 8&C$ H$0(&0 !"#$"%&$()%*" most growth, increasing by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enter for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  8. 8. Projected population change, 2010-2035 L<((6)0 E)64/7 I/J4)D (A4K))16 ;/86A/FF =($I)7<6 U4F(8/>< G)FJ G400<0?()0 B))J I/J4 L))9A<9A<0? E41I/J4 O(/69/ BF4/8M/(48   T)8>/0 ;/A0)>40 W722/81 B/66 Minnesota’s State Demographic BF/H U49J48 Center projects that population trends will continue much as they N<(J<0 B8)MK<0? B/8F()0 have: the western and southern K/140/ P((48Q/<F K<FJ<0 G<04 counties will continue to lose population while growth will Q)11 ;<FF4 continue to radiate out from the R8/0( ;)88<6)0 I/96 L/0/249 5)7?F/6 !"#$"%&$()%*" =(43406 G)@4 =(4/806 U40()0 O6/0(< Twin Cities and north into the Q8/34864 !"#$%&()!#$*& central lakes region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enter for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  9. 9. Population projections Projected population change, 2010-2035 (Minn. State Demographic Center). Projected pop., Region Population, 2010 Percent change 2035 Metroplex 3,634,786 4,569,350 25.7% Southeast River 552,682 613,890 11.1% Valley Southwestern 164,341 160,740 -2.2% Cornbelt Northwest Valley 292,150 333,790 14.3% Up North 363,617 398,300 9.5% Central Lakes 296,349 369,420 24.7% Minnesota 5,303,925 6,446,270 21.5%Center for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  10. 10. Population projections, 2010-2035 30.0% 25.7% 24.7% 25.0% 21.5% 20.0% 14.3% 15.0% 11.1% 9.5% 10.0% 5.0% -2.2% 0.0% -5.0%Center for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  11. 11. Median Age, 2010 -/((,&0 E&,$"A !"#$%&% ()$%*&&+, 6"4,)"33 ?(M%!&A/, H$3(4"7/ 8&3# 8$00/01(&0 2&&# !"#$ -&&.)/.)/01 E$+%!"#$ ;(",." 23$"45"($4   F&47"0 6")0&7$0 JA99"4+ 2",, Median age—the age at which half 23"B H$.#$4 the population is older and half is younger—gives an indication of :/(#/0 24&5%*/01 2"43(&0 the overall age of the population in *"+$0" <(($4%="/3 */3#/0 8/0$ an area. Fast-growing counties with young families, large =&++ 6/33$% institutions of higher education, or >4"0( 6&44/,&0 !"., -"0"9$. G&A13", !"#$%&()"*+"%,-. ?($@$0, 8&C$ H$0(&0 ;,"0(/ large minority populations tend to ?($"40, !"#$%&()* have a lower median age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enter for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  12. 12. Population under age 18, 2010 !"#$%&%(% -/((,&0 E&,$"A !"#$%&% ()$%*&&+, 6"4,)"33 ?(M%!&A/, H$3(4"7/ 8&3# 8$00/01(&0 2&&# !"#$ -&&.)/.)/01 E$+%!"#$ ;(",." 23$"45"($4 F&47"0 6")0&7$0 JA99"4+ 2",,   The highest percentage of people 23"B H$.#$4 under age 18 is concentrated in :/(#/0 the Twin Cities ring suburbs, but 24&5%*/01 2"43(&0 also in counties like Mahnomen, *"+$0" <(($4 ="/3 Dodge and Roseau. For the state */3#/0 8/0$ =&++ as a whole, approximately one quarter of the population is 6/33$ >4"0( 6&44/,&0 !"., -"0"9$. G&A13", !"#$"%&() ?($@$0, 8&C$ H$0(&0 &(&*+,(,-+*&.(% under age 18. ?($"40, ;,"0(/ =4"@$4,$ !"##$%&($)*+,- *",)/01(&0 2)/,"1& H/1 ?)$49A40$ ?(&0$ ?5/( :0&#" )*+,-$%.$))+/- -"0+/B&)/ 6$$#$4 )0+1-$%.$)2+2- 2)/CC$5" ,M *4/1)( E"7 !".%NA/%8"43$ J$00$C/0 )2+,-$%.$),+/- 6.!$&+ E$0@/33$ 2"4@$4 D$33&5%6$+/./0$ )3+1-$(4$5.6" ?/93$B !/0.&30 !B&0 ?.&(( G"#&(" E$+5&&+ F/.&33$( E/.$ !$%?A$A4 >&&+)A$ *"9",)" H4&50 8/C$,(&0$ ?($$3$ G&+1$ *",$." 6A44"B *"(&05"0 <37,($+ */0&0" 2&((&05&&+ H3A$%L"4() E&.# F&93$, I".#,&0 6"4(/0 K"4/9"A3( K4$$9&40 6&5$4 K/337&4$ J&A,(&0 7%$#.89:"; <+=+$>"(#8#$?89"8 @.A8B%C.($D#%CE%"$@9.F9E G$>"(%"9$H.9$I89B$@.BC:J$(4$7"6"B.AE"(%Center for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  13. 13. Projected population age 19 and under, 2035 -/((,&0 E&,$"A !"#$%&% ()$%*&&+, 6"4,)"33 ?(M%!&A/, H$3(4"7/ 8&3# 8$00/01(&0 2&&# !"#$ -&&.)/.)/01 E$+%!"#$ ;(",." 23$"45"($4   F&47"0 6")0&7$0 JA99"4+ 2",, The population age 19 and under 23"B H$.#$4 is projected to stay highest in the Twin Cities. :/(#/0 24&5%*/01 2"43(&0 *"+$0" <(($4%="/3 */3#/0 =&++ 8/0$   Some rural counties are projected >4"0( 6&44/,&0 6/33$% !"., to have higher rates of young -"0"9$. G&A13", !"#$"%&() people as well, most likely due to &(&*+,(,-+*&.(% =4"@$4,$ ?($@$0, 8&C$ ?($"40, H$0(&0 ;,"0(/ !"##$%&($)*+,- the presence of a college or a large minority population. *",)/01(&0 2)/,"1& H/1% ?)$49A40$ ?(&0$ ?5/( :0&#" )*+,-$%.$)/+0- -"0+/B&)/ 6$$#$4 )1+,-$%.$)1+0- 2)/CC$5" ,M *4/1)( E"7 !".%NA/%8"43$ J$00$C/0 )2+,-$%.$)2+0- 6.!$&+ E$0@/33$ 2"4@$4 D$33&5%6$+/./0$ )3+,-$(4$5.6" ?/93$B !/0.&30 !B&0 ?.&(( G"#&(" E$+5&&+ F/.&33$( E/.$ !$%?A$A4 >&&+)A$ *"9",)" H4&50 8/C$,(&0$ ?($$3$ G&+1$ *",$." 6A44"B *"(&05"0 <37,($+ */0&0" 2&((&05&&+ H3A$%L"4() E&.# F&93$, K/337&4$ J&A,(&0 I".#,&0 6"4(/0 K"4/9"A3( K4$$9&40 6&5$4 7%$#.89:"; <=(("#.%$>%%"$7"?.@9A&=:$B"(%"9 C$B"(%"9$D.9$E89F$G.F=:H$(4$7"6"F.A?"(%Center for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  14. 14. Population 65+, 2010 !"#$%&%(% -/((,&0 E&,$"A !"#$%&% ()$%*&&+, 6"4,)"33 ?(M%!&A/, H$3(4"7/ 8&3# 8$00/01(&0 2&&# !"#$ -&&.)/.)/01 E$+%!"#$ ;(",." 23$"45"($4   The higher percentage of seniors F&47"0 6")0&7$0 JA99"4+ 2",, 23"B H$.#$4 remaining in rural counties has :/(#/0 many implications for state and 24&5%*/01 2"43(&0 local government, such as a *"+$0" <(($4%="/3 demand for increased levels of */3#/0 8/0$ =&++ 6/33$% service to those living on low and/ or fixed incomes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enter for Rural Policy & Development, 2013
  15. 15. Projected population age 65+, 2035 -/((,&0 E&,$"A !"#$%&% ()$%*&&+, 6"4,)"33 ?(M%!&A/, H$3(4"7/ 8&3# 8$00/01(&0 2&&# !"#$ -&&.)/.)/01 E$+%!"#$ ;(",." 23$"45"($4   While the trend in aging is F&47"0 6")0&7$0 JA99"4+ 2",, 23"B H$.#$4 projected to continue through :/(#/0 2035 much as it has, the growth in 24&5%*/01 2"43(&0 the aging population may be offset *"+$0" <(($4%="/3 in some southern and western */3#/0 8/0$ =&++ 6/33$% counties by the presence of minorities and immigrants and by >4"0( 6&44/,&0 !"., -"0"9$. G&A13", !"#$"%&() &(&*+,(,-+*&.(% ?($@$0, 8&C$ H$0(&0 ;,"0(/ colleges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enter for Rural Policy & Development, 2013

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