Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Pierangelo Isernia - University of Siena

Are we playing on the Titanic deck? A note on the results of European elections

  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Pierangelo Isernia - University of Siena

  1. 1. Are we playing on the Titanic deck? A note on the results of European elections Pierangelo Isernia (University of Siena)
  2. 2. TALKING POINTS • WHERE IS EUROPE AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION? • THE VIEW FROM WITHIN • THE VIEW FROM WITHOUT • THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS • WHAT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT COMES OUT OF THE 2019 ELECTION • A LOST OPPORTUNITY OR THE 3:10 TRAIN TO YUMA? • WHAT CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPEAN CULTURAL RELATIONS?
  3. 3. EU MEMBERSHIP (% good thing) 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 0,8 0,9 1 9/1/1973 1/1/1975 5/1/1976 9/1/1977 1/1/1979 5/1/1980 9/1/1981 1/1/1983 5/1/1984 9/1/1985 1/1/1987 5/1/1988 9/1/1989 1/1/1991 5/1/1992 9/1/1993 1/1/1995 5/1/1996 9/1/1997 1/1/1999 5/1/2000 9/1/2001 1/1/2003 5/1/2004 9/1/2005 1/1/2007 5/1/2008 9/1/2009 1/1/2011 5/1/2012 9/1/2013 1/1/2015 5/1/2016 9/1/2017 1/1/2019 Source: Eurobarometer, various years
  4. 4. EU COUNTRIES TOO DIFFERENT (Net public opinion: Disagree-Agree) Source: Eurobarometer 466 Autumn 2017; QB9,1 Please tell me if it corresponds very well, fairly well, fairly badly or very badly to what you think personally. There is no common European culture because European countries are too different from one another 10 8 4 -5 -9 -10 -13 -16 -18 -18 -19 -19 -20 -21 -22 -24 -25 -28 -29 -34 -35 -36 -37 -39 -39 -44 -45 -49 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 Germ anySw eden NetherlandsAustriaBulgaria Czech Republic GreatBritainGreece Luxem bourgSloveniaFinlandSlovakiaFranceDenm arkHungaryBelgium PolandPortugal Cyprus(Republic) SpainCroatia M altaLithuania ItalyIrelandEstoniaRom ania Latvia
  5. 5. EU ENDANGER INTEGRITY COUNTRY CULTURE (Political Elite: % Agree) Source: 2009 INTUNE Elite survey; 2014: ENEC Elite survey; 2016-2017: EUEngage elite survey. Question wording: Some people say that the European Union might endanger some important aspects of the nation. For each of the following aspects, please indicate to what extent you agree or disagree that they are endangered by the European Union. QE9P_1 The integrity of [NATIONALITY] culture 987 1516 33 69 6 10 33 53 5 3 17 46 11 16 27 64 6 23 9 9 22 53 20 8 33 40 12 12 29 54 13 8 4 3 2 8 37 29 46 60 2009 2014 2016 2017 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Denmark France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Lithuania Poland Portugal Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Spain United Kingdom
  6. 6. HOW THE EU IS SEEN FROM OUTSIDE • LOW LEVEL OF KNOWLEDGE • IN US IN 2005, 41% HAVE HEARD OF THE EU (BUT 73% OF THE UN, 58% THE WORLD BANK, 65% OF THE RED CROSS) • IN US, IN 2010 ONLY 46% WERE ABLE TO INDICATE GREECE IN A LIST OF COUNTRIES AS THE RECEIVER OF A MAJOR BAILOUT • FAVOR FOR THE EU IS HIGHER THAN FOR THE US AND CHINA • SYMPATHY FOR THE EU VARIES BY REGION. • HIGHER IN NORTH AMERICA AND AFRICA THAN IN ASIA AND THE MIDDLE EAST (IN JORDAN, ONLY ONE FOURTH OF THE SAMPLES HAVE SYMPATHY FOR THE EU, BUT IN LEBANON IT GOES UP TO 53% IN 2013 AND IN EGYPT HOVER AROUND 40% IN 2013). • SUPPORT IS SENSITIVE TO THE EVENTS. SUPPORT FOR THE EU IS DECREASING OVER TIME (A CONSEQUENCE OF THE CRISIS?). IN CANADA DOWN FROM 73% IN 2007 TO 57% IN 2013). IN RUSSIA WENT DOWN FROM 62% IN 2004 TO 31% IN 2015, WITH MOST OF THE DROP BETWEEN 2013 AND 2014. • THE EU IS TRUSTED MORE THAN OTHER INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS (EVEN WHEN THE COUNTRY BELONGS TO THE REGIONAL ORGANIZATION S/HE IS ASKED ABOUT, E.G. IN LATIN AMERICA REGIONAL ORGANIZATIONS ARE TRUSTED LESS THAN THE EU). • EU IS PERCEIVED BY NON-EU ELITE AS AN ECONOMIC GIANT AND AS A MODEL OF INTEGRATION BUT IT LACKS AGENCY OR LEADERSHIP. • EU LACK OF AUTONOMY IN THE POLITICAL REALM (E.G. IN THE MIDDLE EAST).
  7. 7. SUPERPOWERS STABILIZING ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (% Agree) Source: VoP 2014, Gallup International 27 28 32 45 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Russia US China EU
  8. 8. EU STABILIZING ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS (% Agree) Source: VoP 2014, Gallup International -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 MEXICO RUSSIA TURKEY BOSNIA&HERZEGOVINA PAKISTAN THAILAND AFGHANISTAN ITALY SERBIA HUNGARY ARGENTINA JAPAN NEWZEALAND AUSTRALIA KAZAKHSTAN UK ECUADOR HONGKONG SYRIA IRAQ LEBANON CANADA ETHIOPIA SAUDIARABIA USA PHILIPPINES REPUBLICOFKOREA SPAIN SOUTHAFRICA FRANCE LATVIA INDIA BRAZIL CZECHREPUBLIC INDONESIA POLAND ARMENIA UKRAINE COLOMBIA NETHERLANDS SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA GERMANY JORDAN MOLDOVA MACEDONIA GHANA NIGERIA FINLAND BULGARIA ROMANIA GEORGIA ALBANIA VIETNAM KOSOVO
  9. 9. EVOLUTION OF SIMPATHY TOWARD THE EU (Difference 2007-2014) Source: pew, Global Attitudes Project -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 TurkeyUkraineRussia Venezuela NigeriaM exicoGhana Kenya SenegalEgypt Chile India LebanonSouth Africa M oroccoPakistanPeru Brazil M alaysiaArgentinaUgandaIndonesiaIsrael TanzaniaJapan Bangladesh China South Korea Jordan Palestinian
  10. 10. EU PARLIAMENT VOTING TURNOUT Source: European Parliament 61,99 58,98 58,41 56,67 49,51 45,47 42,97 42,61 50,95 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1979 (EU9) 1984 (EU 10) 1989 (EU 12) 1994 (EU 12) 1999 (EU 15) 2004 (EU 25) 2009 (EU 27) 2014 (EU27) 2019 (EU28)
  11. 11. EU PARLIAMENT DIFFERENCE IN VOTING TURNOUT 2014-2019 Source: European Parliament -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Bulgaria Portugal Ireland Italy Malta Luxembourg Greece Belgium Cyprus Estonia UnitedKingdom Finland Latvia Sweden Slovenia Netherlands Croatia Lithuania France Denmark Slovakia CzechRepublic Germany Austria Hungary Romania Spain Poland
  12. 12. EP ELECTORAL VOLATILITY Source: Emanuele, V., Angelucci, D., Marino, B., Puleo, L., and Vegetti, F. (2019), Dataset of Electoral Volatility in the European Parliament elections since 1979, Rome: Italian Center for Electoral Studies, http://dx.doi.org/10.7802/1905. 12,6 12,3 18,0 13,6 14,8 19,9 17,9 23,7 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
  13. 13. TALKING POINTS • WHERE IS EUROPE AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION? • THE VIEW FROM WITHIN • THE VIEW FROM WITHOUT • THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS • WHAT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT COMES OUT OF THE 2019 ELECTION • A LOST OPPORTUNITY OR THE 3:10 TRAIN TO YUMA? • WHAT CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPEAN CULTURAL RELATIONS?
  14. 14. EP 2019 RESULTS Source: 1979-2014PEW https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/22/euroskeptics-are-a-bigger-presence-in-the-european-parliament-than-in- past/ft_19-05-20_euparliament_ideology/; 2019: European Parliament; seats at election time 12 10 8 5 7 6 5 7 7 27 30 35 35 29 28 25 25 20 11 7 10 11 9 13 12 9 14 42 37 30 30 37 37 36 29 24 7 11 9 14 9 11 15 20 23 1 5 8 5 8 6 7 7 10 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 Left wing Center-left Centrist Center-right Right wing Green
  15. 15. EP 2014-2019 RESULTS (SEATS BY PARTY FAMILY) Source: European Parliament; seats at election time 30% 26% 9% 7% 7% 9% 6% 6% 2014 EPP S&D ALDE Greens GUE ECR EFOD ENF 25% 21% 15% 10% 5% 8% 6% 10% 2019 EPP S&D ALDE Greens GUE ECR EFOD ENF Mainstream Sovereignst
  16. 16. EP 2019 RESULTS (THE PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL) Source: European Parliament; seats at election time 25% 21% 15% 10% 5% 8% 6% 10% PARLIAMENT EPP S&D ALDE Greens GUE ECR EFOD ENF Mainstream Sovereignst 25% 25% 17% 3% 3% 11% 5% 11% COUNCIL EPP S&D ALDE Green GUE ECR EFDD ENF
  17. 17. TALKING POINTS • WHERE IS EUROPE AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION? • THE VIEW FROM WITHIN • THE VIEW FROM WITHOUT • THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS • WHAT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT COMES OUT OF THE 2019 ELECTION • A LOST OPPORTUNITY OR THE 3:10 TRAIN TO YUMA? • WHAT CONSEQUENCES FOR EUROPEAN CULTURAL RELATIONS?
  18. 18. CULTURAL POLICY: NATIONAL OR EUROPEAN LEVEL Source: Eurobarometer http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm/Chart/getChart/themeKy/10/groupKy/259 Question: For each of the following areas, do you think that decisions should be made by the (NATIONALITY) government, or made jointly within the European Union? Cultural policy 0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7 Sep-91 Jan-93 Jun-94 Oct-95 Mar-97 Jul-98 Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May-05 (NATIONALITY) Government Jointly within the EU DK - Don't know
  19. 19. CULTURAL POLICY: EU COMMISSION DISBURSEMENTS (Millions Euro) Source: https://euaidexplorer.ec.europa.eu/content/explore/recipients_en 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

×