Science Sandwich - AdaPT Mont-Blanc

1. AdaPT Mont-Blanc project results Climate change in the Mont-Blanc massif : impacts on the environment and human activities December 10, 2019 Chamonix-Mont-Blanc

2. Introduction - ESPACE MONT-BLANC

3. Introduction - ESPACE MONT-BLANC Edoardo Cremonese, Brad Carlson, Gianluca Filippa, Paola Pogliotti, Irene Alvarez, Jean Pierre Fosson, Ludovic Ravanel & Anne Delestrade

4. © Amis du Vieux Chamonix (photo de 1890) & CREA Mont-Blanc (photo de 2015)

5. Introduction Climate parameters Physical environmentLiving environment Human activities Tourism | Agriculture | Natural hasards

6. Observed climate changes Climate parameters Temperature +2° C in average annual temperature since the beginning of the 20th Century in Chamonix (accelerated warming since the 1980s) Precipitation Extreme weather No significant change in annual precipitation, except for a slight increase in winter precip. In the northern French Alps Recent increase in the intensity, duration and frequency of summer heat waves since 2000

7. (Corona-Lozoda et al. 2019) Summerheatwaveindex(JJA) � Clear increase in heat wave occurrence and intensity beginning in 2000 Observed climate changes Year

8. Climate parameters Temperature Overall increase of 1 à 1.5°C in 2035 / 2 à 3°C d’ici 2050 Stronger increase expected in the summer Precipitation Extreme weather Uncertain: +5/10% in winter / -10/20% in summer More frequent & intense • Heat waves: from 5 to 15-20 days per summer below 1000m in 2050 • Storms: +10/20% frequency in heavy precipitation events (>20mm) during the winter and spring • Drought • Spring frost (?) Predicted climate changes

9. Emissions scenario Trend T° increase RCP 8.5 Continuation of business as usual +2°C by 2050, +4-5°C by 2100 RCP 4.5 Reduced emissions beginning in 2050 +1.5°C by 2050, +3°C by 2100 RCP 2.5 Strong reduction in emissions starting now Equilibrium, + < 2°C by 2100 Observed climate change

10. Emissions scenario Trend T° increase RCP 8.5 Continuation of business as usual +2°C by 2050, +4-5°C by 2100 RCP 4.5 Reduced emissions beginning in 2050 +1,5°C by 2050, +3°C by 2100 RCP 2.5 Strong reduction in emissions starting now Equilibrium, + < 2°C by 2100 Observed climate change Use of RCP 4.5 et RCP 8.5 for maps, all scenarios considered for statistical analysis Paris agreement

11. Emissions scenario Trend T° increase RCP 8.5 Continuation of business as usual +2°C by 2050, +4-5°C by 2100 RCP 4.5 Reduced emissions beginning in 2050 +1,5°C by 2050, +3°C by 2100 RCP 2.5 Strong reduction in emissions starting now Equilibrium, + < 2°C by 2100 Observed climate change Use of RCP 4.5 et RCP 8.5 for maps, all scenarios considered for statistical analysis Paris agreement Meteorological data: Spatial data:

12. Environmental impacts Physical environment Snow cover - currentNb.ofdays

13. Physical environment Snow cover - 2050 0 jours Environmental impacts Nb.ofdays

14. Aig. du Midi Grand Pilier d’AngleGrands Montets Physical environment Permafrost Environmental impacts (Magnin et al. 2017) • Ongoing degradation of high-mountain permafrost expected in the massif

15. Physical environment • Strong observed thinning and retreat during recent decades, accelerating since the 1980s (Moreau & Ravanel 2018) Environmental impacts Glaciers

16. Physical environment Glaciers Environmental impacts Future change of the Mer de Glace

17. Physical environment Glaciers Environmental impacts • RCP 8.5: disappearance of the Argentière Glacier in 2080 and of the Mer de Glace in 2100 (Vincent et al. 2019) Future change of the Mer de Glace

18. Physical environment © CREA Mont-Blanc Environmental impacts Soil moisture 2050 water balance RCP 8.5 Current water balance • Drying out of above treeline habitats

19. Physical environment Water runoff • 2060 : increased winter and spring runoff and decreased summer and fall runoff • Transition from snow to rain-regulated watersheds + + - - Environmental impacts Mean hourly runoff for the Dora di Veny (Mont-Blanc)

20. Living environment Environmental impacts

21. Living environment Environmental impacts Growing season length • Observed ‘greening’ of the Alps during recent decades, which is expected to continue Forest & tall shrub Grassland and heath Rocky Grassland Scree and talus Snow, glacier, cliff© CREA Mont-Blanc

22. Living environment © CREA Mont-Blanc • Observed ‘greening’ of the Alps during recent decades, which is expected to continue Environmental impacts Forest & tall shrub Grassland and heath Rocky Grassland Scree and talus Snow, glacier, cliff Growing season length © CREA Mont-Blanc

23. Living environment Environmental impacts • Observed ‘greening’ of the Alps during recent decades, which is expected to continue Forest & tall shrub Grassland and heath Rocky Grassland Scree and talus Snow, glacier, cliff Growing season length © CREA Mont-Blanc

24. Treeline Living environment Environmental impacts • Increasing observed and predicted forest cover

25. Living environment Species abundance and habitat RCP 8.5 Environmental impacts

26. Winter tourismEffects on human activities Reduction in snow cover duration in 2050 - RCP 4.5 South-facing slopes (la Flégère) North-facing slopes (les Grands Montets)

27. Winter tourismEffects on human activities Reduction in snow cover duration in 2050 - RCP 8.5 South-facing slopes (la Flégère) North-facing slopes (les Grands Montets)

28. Winter tourism Snowmaking Effects on human activities • Snowmaking will rapidly become unviable < 2000 m • Starting in 2050, even snowmaking above 2000 m will no longer be reliable Potential snowmaking days in November Nb.ofdaysNb.ofdays

29. Summer tourism Arrival of trees & shrubs Effects on human activities © CREA Mont-Blanc; Data sources: CCVMB, IGN, Landsat/USGS

30. Summer tourism Cooling off up high Effects on human activities

31. Summer tourism Making the most of Rocktober Effects on human activities

32. Agriculture Additional generations of pathogens © ARPA VdA - CH2018 Effects on human activities • Emergence of a 3rd or 4th generation of certain insect pathogens (codling moth, tomato leafminer…) • Possible additional generation(s) for ‘natural’ parasites such as the spruce bark beetle Nb. of Tuta absoluta generations (valley floor)

33. Agriculture Sirah and Merlot at 800 m Effects on human activities • Possibility of growing Syrah grapes in Servoz by 2080 ! (RCP 8.5) • Possiblity of moving agricultural activities to higher elevations (summer grazing for example)

34. Agriculture Hot cows Effects on human activities • Heat waves stress cattle and reduce milk/cheese production • Transition from 1 day a summer to 5-10 days of heat stress in 2035

35. Natural hasards Destablization of high-mountain infrastructure (Duvillard & Ravanel) Effects on human activities • Uncertain viability of buildings located in permafrost zones in the years ahead • Lateral moraines are also highly unstable post- glacier retreat and destabilize infrastructure

36. Natural hasards Summer alpinism Rock fall au Trident du Tacul, Sept. 2018 Photo : Pierre Gourdin Effects on human activities • Modification of 90% of the routes in the 100 Plus belles courses (G. Rébuffat) caused by warming and associated geomorphic processes • Increasingly tricky approaches on glaciers, and increased risk of rock fall on routes

37. Natural hasards Avalanches et serac fall Effects on human activities • Risk of serac fall due to the transition from cold -> to temperate glacier • Increasing number of wet snow avalanches in the high mountains • Potential decrease in avalanche risk on mid- mountain slopes

38. Natural hasards Flood risk © ARPA VdA Effects on human activities • 2-3 days more of flood alert in 2050 (flow > 40 m³ / s, Doire de Vény, IT) • As new lakes form in the wake of glacier retreat, there is a risk of sudden flooding

39. Conclusion Climate change is already well underway in the EMB • Need to redefine our perception and representation of the Alps • The Mont-Blanc massif will increasingly be a refuge • Future of mountain flora and fauna? • Possibility to combine adaptation with mitigation? • Emergence of opportunities alongside challenges ?

40. The Mer de Glace landscape in 2015 Data sources: IGE Grenoble, Landsat/USGS Claire Giordano

41. Data sources: IGE Grenoble, Landsat/USGS Claire Giordano The Mer de Glace landscape in 2050

Science Sandwich - AdaPT Mont-Blanc

Science Sandwich - AdaPT Mont-Blanc

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