Yellow River Basin Focal Project: Intervention Analysis


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Presented at the Pre-Forum BFP meeting, 7-8 November, 2008 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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Yellow River Basin Focal Project: Intervention Analysis

  1. 1. WP 5 -- Intervention Analysis Identification and Implementation of High-Impact Interventions—Use of modeling tools
  2. 2. Outline WP5—Yellow River Basin Tools to support WP5 type analyses • Global water and food projection tools • Basin models INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  3. 3. WORK PACKAGES WP5: Intervention Analysis Research Activities: • Literature review on previous, current, and proposed interventions in the YRB • Identification and assessment of high potential interventions for increasing water productivity and alleviating poverty • Stakeholder insights from upper, middle, and lower basin WP5 Leaders: Xue Yunpeng and Claudia Ringler with support from everyone else INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  4. 4. Yellow River Basin WP5 Implementation Process WP0 Phase I • Data/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour -Alternative interventions, impacts, and CBA - -Alternative interventions, impacts, and CBA - • Project Design • Conceptual Framework • Development of Tools & Methods STAKEHOLDER DIALOGUE WP5 SCENARIO ANALYSIS WP5 SCENARIO ANALYSIS WP1 Water Ranking of WP2 Water alternative Poverty Availability Mapping & Scenario and Access outcomes to Analysis determine Phase II WP3 Water Productivity High Potential Analysis – Basin Model Interventions WP4 Institutional Analysis WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation Platform SHARED VISION MODELING
  5. 5. What is a Shared Vision Model? A “Shared Vision” model is a collective view of a water resources system jointly developed by modelers, managers and stakeholders. It is used to facilitate plan development, implementation and maintenance INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  6. 6. Perceived Advantages of Shared Vision Models Shared Vision Models Improve analysis Are more flexible Communicate more effectively Cost less to develop than traditional approaches INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  7. 7. Modeling Philosophy Shared Vision Models should Be developed with wide support Improve communication among managers and stakeholders Disseminate information equally Improve planning and management of water resources Serve as a basis for effective negotiation INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  8. 8. Overview of Model Development Process Define Objectives Structure Modeling Process Conceptualize System Construct Model Test &Validate Model Enhance/Modify Model Gain Stakeholder Endorsement Establish Ongoing Role For Model
  10. 10. Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2000- 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 10
  11. 11. Calorie availability, key riparian countries (calories per capita per day) 2000 2000-2050 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 Ecuador Laos_Cambodia Botswana Egypt Togo Burkina_Faso China Nepal Uganda Mozambique Bangladesh Colombia Ethiopia Sudan Vietnam India Myanmar South_Africa Peru Ghana Thailand Mali Zimbabwe INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  12. 12. Increasing Irrigation Water Scarcity Irrigation water supply reliability is declining 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 2000 0.50 2050 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 g ed a A P A C a SA in di in N EA SS LA op op In E Ch er M el er el th ev th ev O O D D Note: Irrigation Water Supply Reliability is defined as the ratio of actual irrigation water consumption to potential irrigation water consumption. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  13. 13. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Ganges basin (million hectares) 70 60 50 40 Rainfed 30 Irrigated 20 10 0 2000 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  14. 14. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Mekong basin (million hectares) 18 16 14 12 10 Rainfed 8 Irrigated 6 4 2 0 2000 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  15. 15. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Nile basin (million hectares) 40 35 30 25 20 Rainfed 15 Irrigated 10 5 0 2000 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  16. 16. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Volta basin (million hectares) 25 20 15 Rainfed 10 Irrigated 5 0 2000 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  17. 17. Irrigated and rainfed harvested area, Limpopo basin (million hectares) 4 3 2 Rainfed Irrigated 1 0 2000 2030 2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  18. 18. Sources of Cereal Production Growth, Baseline, 2000-2050 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 18
  19. 19. Net cereal trade (million mt) 200 150 100 50 2000 2030 0 2050 EAP SA SSA LAC MENA HIC ECA -50 -100 -150 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  20. 20. Changes of Annual Precipitation by 2030 (%) (HadCM3) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  21. 21. Changes of Annual Potential ET by 2030 (%) (HadCM3) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  22. 22. Changes of Annual Runoff by 2030 (%) (HadCM3) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  23. 23. Irrigation Water Supply Reliability IMPACT Model Projections INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  24. 24. Selected Insights Basins span a good range for presented indicators, including average rainfall, water availability per capita, population density, and irrigation development Urbanization important for all basins, but in several basins urban centers are outside the basin area (Andean, Volta, Mekong, Limpopo) Climate change is a threat in all basins, but is expected to play out in different ways Maize is an important crop in all river basins Non-irrigation water demand increases faster than irrigation demand
  25. 25. Selected Insights Under baseline, childhood malnutrition largest in the Ganges, generally declining in Asian basins, but increasing in African basins before declining Yield growth is expected to contribute most to future productivity growth in river basins; only in African basins will area expansion still play an important role as well; in Asian basins, area is expected to slightly contract Rainfed production dominates African basins—95% in the region, 99% in the Volta Rainfed crop yields in African basins generally lower compared to Asian basins (because of better rainfall and better access to other inputs); however, yields are also low in the Ganges
  26. 26. Selected Insights Developing countries account for almost all of future income growth and increase in food demand, including livestock demand Coupled with growing resource scarcity on the supply side [water, land, climate-related, energy], developing countries and basins will need to increasingly rely on net food imports Increasing food prices as a result of scarcity on the supply side and rapid growth on the demand side [food, & non-food] reduce access to food and increase childhood malnutrition among the poorest populations in many African and selected Asian countries [particularly those who spend > 50% of income on food]
  27. 27. MOTIVATION – Increased Competition for Water CHANGE GROWTH - Technologies - Economy - Environment - Population Agr - Urbanization Ind Quantity Dom Quality Env ENVIRONMENT - social ENVIRONMENT - legal - physical - political - technical - institutional - economic
  28. 28. An Example of a Typical River Basin Precipitation Fishing Ev Hydropower Forest ap o ra tio Reservoir n /T ra ns Runoff River Basin Boundary p ira tio n Industry Rura Urba Rainfed Agr l n Return FlowWSS WSS Irrigation Recreation Groundwater Inflow Community Use Navigation Infiltration / Recharge Base Flow / Pumping Wetlands / Environment Groundwater Livestock there is a need to understand how one Irrigation use/r affects other uses and users Groundwater Outflow Figure based on Rao 2005 Ocean
  29. 29. TYPES OF RIVER BASIN MODELS • Hydrologic simulation models are important for real-time operation of dams & river systems • Economic optimization models are important for investment calculations • Optimization in simulation models is generally of limited use for water allocation based on economic efficiency purposes • Economic models without sufficient hydrologic representation are also of limited use • Joint hydrologic-economic models can be used for strategic decision-making in river basins
  30. 30. Physical Social Geography Environment Politics Geology Economics Climatology Water Water Sociology Meteorology Resources Demand Law Ecology Institutions . .. Hydrology Water Resources Management Control (Hard) Technology Adaptive (Soft) Technology Water Supply Flood Control Hydro Power ... Fees Taxes Subsi- Water dies Rights ... Solutions Source: Klemes, 1999 Feedbacks
  31. 31. POLICY ANALYSIS AT THE BASIN LEVEL National or National or regional policies on water Regional agencies and economic development Basin policieson multiple purposes of water use, water supply, Basin (sub-basin) authority hydropower, environmental and ecological requirements, water quality, flooding control, capacity expansion and O&M Administrative units (states or provinces, Inter-regional agreements on counties or cities) water allocation and water trade Inter-sectoral water allocation, Irrigation Urban areas water right and markets, districts water prices and O&M cost, water use agreements, Farms On-farm water management
  32. 32. CONCLUSIONS • Effects of policies and developments in one part of the basin for the entire basin can be analyzed • Impacts of non-water and non- irrigation water policies on the basin can be examined
  33. 33. MODEL CHALLENGES Can be data-intensive to adequately model human behavior Difficult, but not impossible to link water uses to poverty outcomes Focus on productive water uses manipulated by humans, and less on rainfed water management [where a lot of poverty persists], but the latter can be represented if it rainfed agriculture results in changes in inflows Difficult but feasible to link to land cover models Stakeholder input is essential Long-term models needed to assess dynamics and cumulative environmental impacts