Yellow River Basin Focal Project
      BFP Program Workshop
           February 3
          Cali,
          Cali Colombia
OUTLINE

            Overview of the YRB
            Key water-food challenges
              y                   g
       ...
Basin Area: 795,000 km2
                                   Population: 110 million
                                   Rive...
KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES
        Intense urban-industrial development along
        the Yellow River has had serious
    ...
KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES

        Irrigation policies in some places support
        increased WUE, in others they don’t
...
KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES

          Large sediment erosion in the basin
              g
          affect water availabili...
PROJECT OBJECTIVES
          Study water p
                y      poverty, water availability
                            ...
PROJECT PARTNERS
       • Yellow River Conservancy Commission
                                    y
         [WP2/WP5]
   ...
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Basin Diagnostic Tour [lower
                     basin]
          Water scarcity considered the largest problem
         ...
PROJECT DETAILS
                          Implementation Process
       WP0 Phase I
       • Data/Project/Models Review/Ba...
WORK PACKAGES

      1) Assessment of water poverty in the YRB
      2) Analysis of water availability and access
      3)...
WP1 Methodology: Measuring
                       Poverty
          Three poverty measures will be used:
                p...
WP1 Methodology: Assessing Water
                    Poverty
          The framework to analyze the linkage
              ...
WP1 Methodology: Poverty Map
                  et odo ogy o e ty ap

          Use statistical, small area estimation
    ...
WP2 - Methodologies
                                    g

          Large body of information on
          [spatial/tempo...
Kuye River
   Lanzhou upstream   Wuding River                             Runoff:10.34;
   Runoff: 364;       Runof:14.1; ...
Human interventions reduce water
                                     availability over time

                            ...
WP3: Combined Modeling Framework
WP3 Methodologies –
                        Water Productivity


                         WP for different sectors
       ...
WP4 FRAMEWORK
              (1) Evolution and determinants


      Water management &          Water allocation, water rig...
WP4 Outputs…
                                 Outputs
        Documentation of policy objectives, policy
                 ...
WP4 Outputs…

         Documentation of institutional
         innovations that would be needed to
         unlock water p...
WP5: Intervention Analysis

L a n d u s e / c ro p p in g
        p a tte rn s
                                      YRCC ...
WP 5 – Methodologies

          Identification of high-impact interventions
                            high impact
      ...
WP6: Knowledge Base and Evaluation
                 Platform

  Analytical Tool Pool                                      ...
WP6 - Potential datasets

          Agroecological zones and potential
          (physiography, climate, soil constraints)...
WP6 - Potential datasets

        Poverty maps and water-related poverty indicators
        (WP1)
        Ag. Water availa...
Land cover - GLC2000
Population
 Density




  Humidity
Transportation/Utility network
Crop Suitability maps - rainfed
       maize and rice
On the Adverse Challenges Side

        Hydrology: YRCC has no mandate on tributary
        flow data
        Poverty – Wa...
On the Adverse Challenges Side

       While sub-basin poverty lines would be
       necessary, Chinese Gov policy only su...
On the Positive Challenges Side

        Need to re-negotiate provincial water allocation –
        but no information on ...
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Yellow River Basin Focal Project

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Presented at the Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

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Yellow River Basin Focal Project

  1. 1. Yellow River Basin Focal Project BFP Program Workshop February 3 Cali, Cali Colombia
  2. 2. OUTLINE Overview of the YRB Key water-food challenges y g YRB Work Packages Project implementation challenges INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  3. 3. Basin Area: 795,000 km2 Population: 110 million River Length: 5,454 km Elevation Drop: 4,480 m GDP : US$88 billion Cultivated land: ~12 million ha Avg rainfall: 450 mm g Avg runoff: 58->53 BCM Ground water: 13.9 BCM Total volume: 71.9 BCM Per cap water: 650 m3 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  4. 4. KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES Intense urban-industrial development along the Yellow River has had serious consequences for water and food security and environmental sustainability y Focus on reallocating water to the environment and new sediment flushing policies t k water away f li i take t from irrigation i i ti New estimates reduced water availability, thus 1987 province level water allocation province-level needs to be revised – current negotiations will likely lead to (sub-optimal) proportional reduction d ti INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  5. 5. KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES Irrigation policies in some places support increased WUE, in others they don’t Ag water saving strategies work ( y) g g g (only) when they also save labor--at least d/s-- due to significant off-farm opportunities Hypothesis: Poverty is concentrated in upland/upstream rainfed areas without non-farm income opportunities INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  6. 6. KEY WATER-FOOD CHALLENGES Large sediment erosion in the basin g affect water availability for other uses and require US$ billions of investment into dams and d k i t d d dykes Increasing water quality problems reduce ater availability red ce water a ailabilit for irrigation Very little knowledge on future impact of climate change Very little knowledge on benefit of water use in domestic-industrial uses domestic industrial INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  7. 7. PROJECT OBJECTIVES Study water p y poverty, water availability y, y and access, water productivity, and water and related institutions in the YRB to develop and rank a series of high- priority interventions aimed at increasing water and food security for the poor while maintaining environmental sustainability i t l t i bilit INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  8. 8. PROJECT PARTNERS • Yellow River Conservancy Commission y [WP2/WP5] • Beijing Normal University [WP2] • China Center for Agricultural Policy [WP4] • University of Illinois [WP3] • Int. Food Policy Research Institute [WP1/WP6] INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  9. 9. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  10. 10. Basin Diagnostic Tour [lower basin] Water scarcity considered the largest problem for irrigation g Water fees and water quality are also important Increased competition with urban-industrial and environmental water uses Zero tillage as one strategy to save water and labor, adoption for maize and wheat Most f M t farmers are part-time [ t ti [small l d area, ll land many non-farm employment opportunities] Climate change potential future threat – experience of more extreme cold events during i f t ld t d i winter and reduced runoff despite stable rainfall Relatively low poverty in Henan and Shandong provinces [d i [downstream b i ] t basin] INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  11. 11. PROJECT DETAILS Implementation Process WP0 Phase I • Data/Project/Models Review/Basin Tour -Alternative intervention impacts, and CBA - • Project Design • Conceptual Framework • Development of Tools & Methods STA STA WP SCENARI ANALYSIS AKEHOLDER DIALOGUE AKEHOLDER DIALOGUE e P5 WP1 Water Ranking of WP2 Water alternative Poverty Availability Mapping & Scenario and Access outcomes to Analysis y IO ns, determine d t i Phase II WP3 Water Productivity High Potential Analysis – Basin Model Interventions WP4 Institutional Analysis WP6 Knowledge Base & Evaluation Platform SHARED VISION MODELING INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  12. 12. WORK PACKAGES 1) Assessment of water poverty in the YRB 2) Analysis of water availability and access 3) Analysis of agricultural water productivity 4) Institutional analysis 5) I t Intervention analysis ti l i 6) Development and application of the knowledge base INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  13. 13. WP1 Methodology: Measuring Poverty Three poverty measures will be used: p y • the headcount index • the poverty gap index • the squared poverty gap index The poverty measures will be used to develop and map poverty profiles of d l d fil f population at the basin and sub-basin levels, levels which are a useful way of summarizing information on the levels of poverty and characteristics of the poor. INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  14. 14. WP1 Methodology: Assessing Water Poverty The framework to analyze the linkage y g between poverty and water will involve multivariate regression analysis through modeling the determinants of household f welfare INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  15. 15. WP1 Methodology: Poverty Map et odo ogy o e ty ap Use statistical, small area estimation statistical small-area (SAE), techniques • Produces readily interpretable estimates • Statistical precision can be gauged • Encouraging results to date g g • But, extensive data requirements [combination of household-level data of Population Census and household expenditure data] INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  16. 16. WP2 - Methodologies g Large body of information on [spatial/temporal] distribution of water availability and water h il bilit d t hazards d Use SWAT-BNU to estimate rainfall-runoff [sediment and human interactions] Will feed into aggregated existing Yellow River Hydrologic Model INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  17. 17. Kuye River Lanzhou upstream Wuding River Runoff:10.34; Runoff: 364; Runof:14.1; Per.: 1.5% Per.: 55.6% Per.: 2.2% Sanchuan River Runoff:6.63; Per.: 1% Unit: Runoff:×108 m3 Wei River Yiluo River Qin River Runoff:120.7; Runoff:33.1; Runoff:19.1; Per.: 18.4% Per.: 5.% Per.: 2.9% SWAT-BNU - Runoff percentage: 86.6%
  18. 18. Human interventions reduce water availability over time 1000 Huayuankou 900 Lijin 1950s~60s Avg. 800 Annual Runoff (10 m3) 1980s~90s Huayuankou Avg. 1980s~90s Lijin A 1980 90 Liji Avg. 700 8 600 500 R 400 30% off 300 60% off 200 100 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  19. 19. WP3: Combined Modeling Framework
  20. 20. WP3 Methodologies – Water Productivity WP for different sectors (water transfer issues) WP for upstream vsdownstream regions (water allocation issues) WP for areas with different levels of incomes (p (poverty issues) y ) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  21. 21. WP4 FRAMEWORK (1) Evolution and determinants Water management & Water allocation, water rights institutional arrangement & water pricing policies (2) Impacts Access to Water Food Environment Poverty y security security water productivity Other socio-economic, institutional and physical factors (3) Possible water policy and institutional changes
  22. 22. WP4 Outputs… Outputs Documentation of policy objectives, policy p y j p y instruments, and policy actions where these affect the access and productivity of water, p poverty alleviation, food security and y , y environmental security Documentation of legal frameworks, frameworks institutional arrangements and governance processes that effect access and productivity of water, water poverty alleviation, food security and alleviation environmental security INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  23. 23. WP4 Outputs… Documentation of institutional innovations that would be needed to unlock water productivity p p y potential needed to alleviate poverty and enhancing food and environmental security INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  24. 24. WP5: Intervention Analysis L a n d u s e / c ro p p in g p a tte rn s YRCC & SW AT W a te r A c c o u n tin g W a te r E n v iro n m e n ta l flo w s p r o d u c tiv it y S C E N A R IO W a te r [e c o n o m ic & p h y s ic a l] A N A L Y S IS a c c o u n tin g & Institution & Policy Dialogue A g ric u ltu ra l Irrig a tio n w a te r L iv e s to c k d e v e lo p m e n t a v a ila b ility & Irrig a te d c ro p s access R a in fe d c ro p s (F is h ) N o n a g ric u ltu ra l w a te r d e m a n d E c o n o m ic - ns In s titu tio n a l- W a te r In s titu tio n a l a n a ly s is p o v e rty H IG H A g r o n o m ic - Im p a c ts P R IO R IT Y M a c ro /S e c to ra l a n d E q u a tio n d is trib u te d IN T E R - T ra d e p o lic ie s s y s te m s by gender and V E N T IO N S in c o m e g ro u p P o v e rty M a p p in g K n o w le d g e b a s e S H A R E D V IS IO N M O D E L IN G / IN F O R M A T IO N S H A R IN G – / R E S U L T D IS S E M IN A T IO N
  25. 25. WP 5 – Methodologies Identification of high-impact interventions high impact through scenario analysis Including trade and g g general agricultural g policies that relate to irrigated agriculture Analyzing alternative province-level water allocations and alternative sectoral water ll ti d lt ti t l t allocations Shared vision modeling • 3 policy dialogues: U/s, M/s and D/s to discuss scenarios and model parameters INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  26. 26. WP6: Knowledge Base and Evaluation Platform Analytical Tool Pool Basin Knowledge and Databases SWAT-BNU / YRCC diagnostic Biophysical, socioeconomic, water poverty, hydrology & Economic- water productivity – GIS platform study hydrologic water modeling Poverty Mapping / Capacity Regression Analysis Spatial p Statistical Qualitative data surveys / data building Institutional Analysis Policy/Investment Analysis Tabular data Field visits SCENARIO & Consultation Stakeholder INVESTMENT dialogue ANALYSIS Development policy/ High Priority Interventions for enhanced Outreach and investment food and water security ater sec rit Communication Comm nication Processes
  27. 27. WP6 - Potential datasets Agroecological zones and potential (physiography, climate, soil constraints) Natural resources (rivers, catchements, wetlands, forests, forests protected areas ecoregions etc) areas, Land cover and land cover change Production systems (c op a d/pas u e/ es oc oduc o sys e s (cropland/pasture/livestock distribution, irrigated/rainfed production) Population density and market access INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  28. 28. WP6 - Potential datasets Poverty maps and water-related poverty indicators (WP1) Ag. Water availability maps under various level of hydroclimatic conditions intervention and conditions, investment scenarios (WP2) Water productivity maps for individual rainfed and irrigated crops (WP3) Environmental and socioeconomical indicators under different interventions (WP5) Models and tools from this project? TO BE LINKED TO DIGITAL YELLOW RIVER INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  29. 29. Land cover - GLC2000
  30. 30. Population Density Humidity
  31. 31. Transportation/Utility network
  32. 32. Crop Suitability maps - rainfed maize and rice
  33. 33. On the Adverse Challenges Side Hydrology: YRCC has no mandate on tributary flow data Poverty – Water agencies have no specific mandate related to poverty Socioeconomic data availability seems now more diffi lt t obtain b t would b required difficult to bt i but ld be i d for the among economists most accepted poverty mapping method (Small Area Estimation Technique) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  34. 34. On the Adverse Challenges Side While sub-basin poverty lines would be necessary, Chinese Gov policy only supports use of 1 national poverty line Domestic and industrial water benefit curve estimates will likely need to be synthesized Water W t agencies have no mandate over and d i h d t d do not want to increase access to rainfed areas, where the poorest likely reside INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  35. 35. On the Positive Challenges Side Need to re-negotiate provincial water allocation – but no information on provincial water use benefits Large demand for knowledge on pro-poor water savings and willingness to experiment with water rights trading Large interest in outcomes of tradeoff analysis among water-using sectors Several Chinese Government policy changes [trade, [trade ag policies] that allow for useful scenario analysis Need for information on climate change impacts g p INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

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