WATER MANAGEMENT ACROSS
      SCALES IN THE SÃO FRANCISCO
          RIVER BASIN, BRAZIL:
      POLICY OPTIONS AND POVERTY
...
Presentation Overview
• Trends, Current Conditions and Driving Forces
  –P
   Population, Poverty, Agriculture, Market Str...
Three Worlds of the WDR
                      2008




Source: World Development Report 2008   UCD/Embrapa
Changing Market
   Structure




                  UCD/Embrapa
Total Population     1991         2000        Change     % change


Total for SFRB     14,059,006   15,723,771
           ...
Aging of the Rural
                           SFRB Population
                                          Shifting Demograph...
Soil Types and Distance to Market




                                    UCD/Embrapa
Water Availability




                     UCD/Embrapa
Agriculture in the SFRB --
          1991




                             UCD/Embrapa
Agriculture in the SFRB --
                                       2004
São Francisco River Basin                          ...
Frequency Distribution of Corn Production



         60
              (in tons/ha)
                                      ...
Water Productivity in Corn




                             UCD/Embrapa
Water Productivity




                     UCD/Embrapa
Poverty in the SFRB




                      UCD/Embrapa
Extreme Poverty in
     the SFRB
2003 Rural                            Extreme Poverty-
                                  ...
Spatial
Distribution f
Di ib i of
Rural Povertyy




         UCD/Embrapa
Key Policy Issues
•    Agricultural Sector
       –   How much surface water should be diverted for agriculture, and where...
Fundamental Gaps in
             Knowledge
• Farmer Responses to Policy and Other Changes
            p              y    ...
Pause for Discussion

• Do These Situations or Trends ‘Ring True
                                 Ring True’
  for your Ba...
SFRB Team Activities
• Research at Three Spatial Extents – Basin-Wide,
  Buriti Vermelho Sub-Catchment, Plot Levels
  – Ch...
Key Objectives of Hydro-
        Economic Models
• Understand Farmer Behavior and Outcomes
  – Cropping patterns, input mi...
Basic Components of
     Hydro-Economic Models
• Hydrologic Models
  – Water flows/stocks, in space/time
• E
  Economic Mo...
Burití Vermelho




                  Brazil   San Francisco
                            River Basin




                 ...
A Spatially Distributed Hydrologic
   Model for Buriti Vermelho




                                UCD/Embrapa
Hydrologic Model
                (MOD HMS)
                (MOD-HMS)
             Overland                                ...
Changes in Reservoir Demand




Reservoir #2




Reservoir #5




                                 UCD/Embrapa
Groundwater & Surface
           Water Use (Farmer 4)
                     (        )

Applied Water
By Source




       ...
Basin-Wide Hydrology Model



        Upscale




                             UCD/Embrapa
Monte Carlo simulations using
 ARCGIS – Excel and VBA




                                UCD/Embrapa
Hydrologic Modeling
       Conclusions
       C    l i
• Physics-based models capture spatial and
  Physics based
  tempor...
Core of the Economic Models of
Agriculture: Farmer Objective Function
• Maximize Profits
  – Choose product mix and produc...
Core of the Economic Model of
 Agriculture: Farmer Objective Function
 max ∑ pit qit (x nirrt , ewit (xirrt )) − ∑ w jt xi...
Hydrologic & Economic Model Links
         y     g

• Crop-specific                     Algorithm to translate
           ...
Land Use System Analysis
                (LUS)
• Space
   – Single parcel of land
        g p
• Time
   – Multi-year durat...
LUS Results for Alternative
           Production Systems in Petrolina
                                                   ...
Effects of Uncertainty
 Effects f G t M t lit
 Eff t of Goat Mortality
Uncertainty on NPV per Year




                   ...
Policy E
P li Experiments Using LUS
          i   t Ui




                             UCD/Embrapa
Modeling the Buriti
Vermelho Sub Catchment
         Sub-Catchment
               Benefits of Co-Location
                 ...
Water Stored and Withdrawn from Reservoir #2




                                                  Water
                 ...
Economic Effects of Drought
                                        corn   dried beans   limes   vegetables   orchards   w...
Change with respect to
       eline (%)
                     o
                                     Economic Effects of Dr...
Basin-Wide Setting

• Variable Weather Conditions
  – Wet year and drought
  – Rainfall and evapotranspiration
• Water Pol...
Precipitation
P i it ti
in the SFRB
and Focus of
 the Basin-
Wide Policy
Experiment

       UCD/Embrapa
Upstream Water Demand
Upstream Water Demand for Boqueirão
         (sample município)
           Blue = baseline
  Green =...
Water Available at Sobradinho Dam  ‐‐ Before Price Shock




                                                             ...
Upstream Cultivated Areas
            (by scenario, irrigation)

500,000

400,000                                         ...
Area in Sugarcane
           Upstream Sugarcane Areas
            (by scenario, irrigation)

30,000
30 000
25,000
20,000
1...
Upstream Agricultural Employment
                  (by scenario, irrigation)                                    R   l
    ...
Upstream Sugarcane and Total Ag Profits
                      (by scenario, irrigation)
120,000,000
100,000,000
 80,000,00...
Behavioral Modeling

• Value Added
  – Insight into farming and farm household decisions
  – These decisions can affect wa...
Knowledge Pathways and
                        Impact Pathways
                 Min. of Ag.                Agents of Chang...
Research Outputs
• Written Output
  – Journal papers conference papers working
            papers,             papers,
   ...
Next Steps for the SFRB
          Research Team
• Refine and Use the Models to Address Pressing
  Water-Ag-Poverty Issues ...
SFRB Potential Contributions
                                g
       to Phase II Basin Challenges
• Benefit Sharing Mecha...
Pause for Discussion

• How Have We Done?
• What Have We Missed?
• What Would YOU Like to See the SFRB
               O   ...
Concluding Remarks

• Our Stories
  – Steve Vosti and Marcelo Torres
  – Marco Maneta
• Your Views




                   ...
Muito Obrigado!




                  UCD/Embrapa
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

WATER MANAGEMENT ACROSS SCALES IN THE SÃO FRANCISCO RIVER BASIN, BRAZIL: POLICY OPTIONS AND POVERTY CONSEQUENCES

805 views

Published on

Presented at the Pre-Forum BFP meeting, 7-8 November, 2008 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Published in: Technology, Travel
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
805
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
5
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
20
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

WATER MANAGEMENT ACROSS SCALES IN THE SÃO FRANCISCO RIVER BASIN, BRAZIL: POLICY OPTIONS AND POVERTY CONSEQUENCES

  1. 1. WATER MANAGEMENT ACROSS SCALES IN THE SÃO FRANCISCO RIVER BASIN, BRAZIL: POLICY OPTIONS AND POVERTY CONSEQUENCES Marco Maneta Marcelo Torres Stephen A. Vosti & November 2008 SFRB Team UCD/Embrapa
  2. 2. Presentation Overview • Trends, Current Conditions and Driving Forces –P Population, Poverty, Agriculture, Market Structure l ti P t A i lt M k t St t • Key Policy Issues • Fundamental Gaps in Knowledge – Participant Action • Research Undertaken in the SFRB to Fill these Gaps • Possible Contributions of the SFRB in Phase II – Participant Action • Concluding Remarks (Our Personal Stories) UCD/Embrapa
  3. 3. Three Worlds of the WDR 2008 Source: World Development Report 2008 UCD/Embrapa
  4. 4. Changing Market Structure UCD/Embrapa
  5. 5. Total Population 1991 2000 Change % change Total for SFRB 14,059,006 15,723,771 1991-2000 1,664,765 11.84% Population Alagoas Bahía 668,980 2,712,391 705,851 2,897,898 36,871 185,507 5.51% 6.84% Change i the Ch in h Distrito Federal Goiás 1,601,094 147,656 2,051,146 173,079 450,052 25,423 28.11% 17.22% SFRB Minas Gerais 6,971,994 7,885,366 913,372 13.10% Pernambuco 1,568,446 1,591,141 22,695 1.45% Sergipe 229,819 260,180 30,361 13.21% Rural 1991 2000 Change % change Population 1991-2000 Total for SFRB 4,445,920 3,691,016 -754,904 -16.98% Alagoas g 409,421 , 400,418 , -9,003 , -2.20% Bahía 1,579,751 1,442,275 -137,476 -8.70% Distrito Federal 85,205 89,647 4,442 5.21% Goiás 50,576 37,650 -12.926 -25.56% Minas Gerais 1,256,533 809,764 -446,769 -35.56% Pernambuco 842,515 700,970 -141,545 -16.80% Sergipe 124,703 131,202 6,499 5.21% UCD/Embrapa
  6. 6. Aging of the Rural SFRB Population Shifting Demographic Profile 12.00 12 00 10.00 ipios Proporti of Munici 8.00 6.00 ion 4.00 2.00 0.00 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33% 34% 35% 55+ Dependency Ratio -- 1991 55+ Dependency Ratio -- 2000 UCD/Embrapa
  7. 7. Soil Types and Distance to Market UCD/Embrapa
  8. 8. Water Availability UCD/Embrapa
  9. 9. Agriculture in the SFRB -- 1991 UCD/Embrapa
  10. 10. Agriculture in the SFRB -- 2004 São Francisco River Basin Harvested Specialty Harvested Grains Crops, Crops 2004 2004 Petrolina Harvested Area (ha) Harvested Area (ha) at Município Level at Município Level None None 1 - 2,000 1 - 2,500 Montes Claros 2,001 - 5,000 2,501 - 10,000 5,001 - 10,000 10,001 - 50,000 10,001 - 20,000 50,001 - 200,000 20,001 - 431,441 200,001 - 401,980 Sete Lagoas g Scale 1:9,000,000 Ribeirao das Neves 0 50 100 200 300 Belo Horizonte Betim Kilometers Divinopolis Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area Projection, WGS-84. Map by J A Young, 12 September 2007 UCD/Embrapa
  11. 11. Frequency Distribution of Corn Production 60 (in tons/ha) Changes in Land Productivity P d ti it 40 ount Co 20 0 1 2 3 4 Unweighted Yields in 1991 Frequency Distribution of Corn Production (in tons/ha) 60 Count 40 20 Scale of Farming is Changing Rapidly g g g p y • Vast Majority of Area Expansion is by 0 0 2 4 Unweighted Yields in 2004 6 Large-Scale Enterprises UCD/Embrapa
  12. 12. Water Productivity in Corn UCD/Embrapa
  13. 13. Water Productivity UCD/Embrapa
  14. 14. Poverty in the SFRB UCD/Embrapa
  15. 15. Extreme Poverty in the SFRB 2003 Rural Extreme Poverty- Poverty Poverty Rural Poverty Rural % of % of Rural Rural Absolute Pop Absolute Pop Total for SFRB 1,012,095 28% 345,677 9% Alagoas 163,307 41% 70,400 2.6% Bahía 328,313 23% 139,941 9.7% Goiás 7,792 7 792 21% 2,846 2 846 7.5% 7 5% Minas Gerais 178,006 22% 43,214 5.3% Pernambuco 258,004 37% 53,484 7.6% Sergipe 48,635 37% 19,603 14.9% UCD/Embrapa
  16. 16. Spatial Distribution f Di ib i of Rural Povertyy UCD/Embrapa
  17. 17. Key Policy Issues • Agricultural Sector – How much surface water should be diverted for agriculture, and where*? – How much groundwater should be pumped? – What is the optimal level of irrigation efficiency? – What public policy action (if any) is required to better manage water resources? • What are the effects of water management policies on the poor? • Poverty – How is water productivity or access to water linked to poverty in the SFRB? – If linked, how much water should be diverted to poor farmers to reduce poverty? • What additional public policy action will be required to reduce poverty? • Inter-Sectoral Trade-Offs – Wh t are th i What the impacts on agriculture of the di t i lt f th diversion of water f h d power? i f t for hydro ? – How much water should remain in the river system for environmental benefits? • Inter-Basin Trade-Offs – What are the agricultural and other costs in the SFRB associated with inter-basin transfers? * ‘and where’ applies to all issues UCD/Embrapa
  18. 18. Fundamental Gaps in Knowledge • Farmer Responses to Policy and Other Changes p y g – Water policies (e.g., water prices, regulations, etc.) – Market conditions (e.g., input and output p ( g, p p prices) ) – Weather conditions (e.g., drought) • Effects of Farmer Behavior on Water Resources – Surface water – Groundwater UCD/Embrapa
  19. 19. Pause for Discussion • Do These Situations or Trends ‘Ring True Ring True’ for your Basins? • Do the Fundamental Gaps in Knowledge Reflect those in your Basins? UCD/Embrapa
  20. 20. SFRB Team Activities • Research at Three Spatial Extents – Basin-Wide, Buriti Vermelho Sub-Catchment, Plot Levels – Characterization • Poverty • Hydrology • A i lt Agriculture – Water use in agriculture • Water productivity – Modeling • Hydro inter-relationships • Human behavior in agricultural • Linking models – Use Models to Assess the Effect of Selected Interventions and Policy Changes • T i i and Capacity Strengthening Training d C it St th i • Outreach UCD/Embrapa
  21. 21. Key Objectives of Hydro- Economic Models • Understand Farmer Behavior and Outcomes – Cropping patterns, input mix, employment, water use – Income and poverty – Surface water and groundwater availability • Predict the Effects of Proposed Policy and other Changes on Farmer Behavior/Outcomes • Inform Policy • Modeling at Three Spatial Extents – Plot-Level LUS Models – Buriti Vermelho Models – Basin-Wide Models UCD/Embrapa
  22. 22. Basic Components of Hydro-Economic Models • Hydrologic Models – Water flows/stocks, in space/time • E Economic Models of Agriculture i M d l f A i lt – Farming decisions •C Crop mix, production technology, water use i i • Linking the Models UCD/Embrapa
  23. 23. Burití Vermelho Brazil San Francisco River Basin UCD/Embrapa
  24. 24. A Spatially Distributed Hydrologic Model for Buriti Vermelho UCD/Embrapa
  25. 25. Hydrologic Model (MOD HMS) (MOD-HMS) Overland Channel flow flow ∂ hO ∂ ⎛ ∂h ⎞ − ⎜ dk x O ⎟ ∂ hC ∂ ⎛ ∂ hC ⎞ ∂t ∂x ⎝ ∂x ⎠ B − ⎜κl ⎟ ∂t ∂ ⎝ ∂ ⎠ ∂ ⎛ ∂h ⎞ + ⎜ dk y O ⎟ − dq og − dq oc = 0 − Aq co − Aq cg = 0 ∂y ⎜ ⎝ ∂y ⎟ ⎠ ∂ ⎛ ∂h ⎞ ∂ ⎛ ∂h ⎞ ⎜ K xx k rw G ⎟ + ⎜ K yy k rw G ⎟ ∂x ⎝ ∂x ⎠ ∂y ⎜ ⎝ ∂y ⎟ ⎠ Flow in porous media ∂ ⎛ ∂h ⎞ + ⎜ K zz k rw G ⎟ − W + q go + q gc with ∂z ⎝ ∂z ⎠ variable Simulation ∂S w ∂h =φ + SwSs G degrees of ∂t ∂t saturation Panday & Huyakorn (2005). Adv. Wat. Res. UCD/Embrapa
  26. 26. Changes in Reservoir Demand Reservoir #2 Reservoir #5 UCD/Embrapa
  27. 27. Groundwater & Surface Water Use (Farmer 4) ( ) Applied Water By Source Baseline Depth to Water Drought Table UCD/Embrapa
  28. 28. Basin-Wide Hydrology Model Upscale UCD/Embrapa
  29. 29. Monte Carlo simulations using ARCGIS – Excel and VBA UCD/Embrapa
  30. 30. Hydrologic Modeling Conclusions C l i • Physics-based models capture spatial and Physics based temporal impacts of economic activity on the hydrologic system • Give insights and enhance understanding of the biophysical system • For the larger scale, stochastic techniques can calculate water availability in terms of frequency and permits quantification of risk • Dynamic models have predictive capability and therefore allow f policy testing th f ll for li t ti UCD/Embrapa
  31. 31. Core of the Economic Models of Agriculture: Farmer Objective Function • Maximize Profits – Choose product mix and production technology • Including the amount and sources of water, and how it is applied • Subject to an Array of Constraints j y – Socioeconomic • Feed the family • Access to markets and credit, etc. – Biophysical • Soils, weather, etc. –A Access t water to t • Surface water, groundwater UCD/Embrapa
  32. 32. Core of the Economic Model of Agriculture: Farmer Objective Function max ∑ pit qit (x nirrt , ewit (xirrt )) − ∑ w jt xijt − ∑ cewit (pirrt , xirrt ; z) i i i Agricultural Production Function Effective Water •Vector of Non Irrigation Inputs (xnirr): Vector Non-Irrigation Cost Crop •Fertilizers, seeds, land, pesticides, Non-Irrigation • Irrigation Input Prices machinery etc Input Cost Prices – pirr •Effective Water – ew • Price - wsj • Irrigation Input •Function of Irrigation Inputs (xirr) F ti f I i ti I t ( ): •Q Quantity - xsij tit Quantities - xirr Q titi •Applied water • z – Vector of •Irrigation Capital factors that may •Irrigation Labor g affect irrigation costs •Irrigation Energy (e.g. distance to ( di t t river) UCD/Embrapa
  33. 33. Hydrologic & Economic Model Links y g • Crop-specific Algorithm to translate g HYDROLOGIC • poduction cropping decisions into MODEL • water use water demand • irrigation efficiency Cropping Decisions Hydrologic Consequences ECONOMIC • Water available for ag Algorithm to translate O MODEL hydrologic consequences • rainfall into water availability •surface water UCD/Embrapa
  34. 34. Land Use System Analysis (LUS) • Space – Single parcel of land g p • Time – Multi-year duration, specific end date, seasonal time steps • Economic Model of Agriculture – S ifi series of cropping activities, specific production and Specific i f i ti iti ifi d ti d water use technologies • Hydrology Model – Farmer’s assessments of water availability y • All Data Collected at Farm Level Field #1 Field #1 Year 1 Field #1 Year 2 Field #1 Year 3 Year 4 Field #1 Year 10 Field #1 Year 15 UCD/Embrapa
  35. 35. LUS Results for Alternative Production Systems in Petrolina Labor Employ LUS Economic Performance Requirements Water for Irrigation ment Establish Excess ment Total Establish Water Returns Cost -- Opera- Operatio NPV per Returns Establish Family ment Productivi NPV to Plot tional Water Use nal hectare to Land ment Labor Cost -- ty (NPV/ Family y Costs Phase Used Property 1000m³) Labor (per hectare) $R/ Person- person- person- $R/ha Person- days/ ha/ $R/ha/ 1000M3/ $R/ days/ha/ $R $R/ha day /year days /ha year $R $R/ ha year ha/year 1000m³ year Goats and Sheep -12 0 0 0 1.5 6.3 0 0 6 4 0.00 0 Melon -Onion 43,963 21,981 11 1,099 28 102 50 25 2,466 21 53.26 229 Manga -- flood irrigation 3,087 772 1 39 35 45 553 138 1,177 12 3.12 93 Mango -- micro sprinkler 11,057 2,764 4 138 44 32 4,212 1,053 973 10 14 69 Table grapes with seeds 778,074 129,679 31.14 6,484 151 208 96,600 16,100 3,157 18 368 524 Table grapes seedless 1,369,349 228,225 1 369 349 228 225 54.81 54 81 11,411 11 411 151 208 96,600 96 600 16,100 16 100 3,157 3 157 18 648 438 UCD/Embrapa
  36. 36. Effects of Uncertainty Effects f G t M t lit Eff t of Goat Mortality Uncertainty on NPV per Year Effect of Uncertainty in Mango Prices on NPV per year UCD/Embrapa
  37. 37. Policy E P li Experiments Using LUS i t Ui UCD/Embrapa
  38. 38. Modeling the Buriti Vermelho Sub Catchment Sub-Catchment Benefits of Co-Location of Research Sites Brazil San Francisco River Basin UCD/Embrapa
  39. 39. Water Stored and Withdrawn from Reservoir #2 Water Availability A il bili and Use in BV % Groundwater Used by Farmer X Depth of Groundwater in Well Field UCD/Embrapa
  40. 40. Economic Effects of Drought corn dried beans limes vegetables orchards wheat Change with respect to 30 baseline (%) 20 Changes e 10 Farmer 1 0 Farmer 2 Farmer 3 in Applied -10 Farmer 4 Water 20 -20 -30 (a) -40 Change with respect to Changes t 40 20 in Land aseline (%) Farmer 1 0 Farmer 2 -20 Farmer 3 Allocation ba -40 Farmer 4 -60 -80 (a) -100 UCD/Embrapa
  41. 41. Change with respect to eline (%) o Economic Effects of Drought 20 Farmer 1 0 base w Farmer 2 F -20 Farmer 3 Changes -40 Farmer 4 in Profits -60 -80 (a) -100 Change with respect to . Changes 40 in Hired %) baseline (% Farmer 1 20 0 Farmer 2 Labor Farmer 3 -20 Farmer 4 Use -40 40 -60 -80 (a) -100 UCD/Embrapa
  42. 42. Basin-Wide Setting • Variable Weather Conditions – Wet year and drought – Rainfall and evapotranspiration • Water Policy Setting – Application of the ANA guidelines • Price Shock – Large increase in sugarcane prices • Use Hydro-Econ Models to Predict: – Cropping p pp g patterns, water use, employment, income , , p y , – Water availability in river system UCD/Embrapa
  43. 43. Precipitation P i it ti in the SFRB and Focus of the Basin- Wide Policy Experiment UCD/Embrapa
  44. 44. Upstream Water Demand Upstream Water Demand for Boqueirão (sample município) Blue = baseline Green = Sugarcane Price Increase Total Demand  of all Simulated  Upstream Responses to  Sugarcane Price Increases (m3s‐1) January y 39.5 February 33.4 March 40.1 April 22.3 Mayy 27.1 June 37.8 July 54.4 August 89.5 September 99.4 October 92.5 November 74.6 December 43.1 UCD/Embrapa
  45. 45. Water Available at Sobradinho Dam  ‐‐ Before Price Shock Water Available for Agriculture Water Available at Sobradinho Dam  ‐‐ After Price Shock “Available” for Ag = River Flow Entering Sobradinho Dam Minus 2000 m3s-1 for Environmental Flows (following Braga and Lotufo 2008) UCD/Embrapa
  46. 46. Upstream Cultivated Areas (by scenario, irrigation) 500,000 400,000 Agricultural 300,000 200,000 Land Use L dU 100,000 0 Baseline Sugar Price -- Sugar Price -- Wet Drought Year Downstream Cultivated Areas Rainfed Irrigated Total Cultivated Area (by scenario, irrigation) 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 500 000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Baseline Sugar Price -- Sugar Price -- Drought Wet Year Rainfed Irrigated Total Cultivated Area UCD/Embrapa
  47. 47. Area in Sugarcane Upstream Sugarcane Areas (by scenario, irrigation) 30,000 30 000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5 000 0 Baseline Sugar Price -- Sugar Price -- Drought Wet Year Downstream Sugarcane Areas (by scenario, irrigation) Total Sugarcane Total Irrigated Sugarcane 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Baseline Sugar Price -- Sugar Price -- Drought Wet Year Total Sugarcane Total Irrigated Sugarcane UCD/Embrapa
  48. 48. Upstream Agricultural Employment (by scenario, irrigation) R l Rural 6,000 5,000 , 4,000 Employment p y 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Baseline Sugar Price -- Sugar Price -- Drought Wet Year Downstream Agricultural Employment Total Rural Employment p y Total Irrigated Ag Employment g g p y ( y (by scenario, irrigation) , g ) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Baseline Sugar Price -- Sugar Price -- Drought Wet Year Total Rural Employment Total Irrigated Ag Employment UCD/Embrapa
  49. 49. Upstream Sugarcane and Total Ag Profits (by scenario, irrigation) 120,000,000 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 40 000 000 Agricultural 20,000,000 0 Baseline Sugar Price -- Sugar Price -- Profits Drought Wet Year Total Ag Profits Irrigated Ag Profits Total Sugarcane Profits Irrigated Sugarcane Profits Downstream Sugarcane and Total Ag Profits (by scenario irrigation) scenario, 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 Baseline Sugar Price -- S gar Sugar Price -- Wet S gar Drought Year Total Ag Profits Irrigated Ag Profits Total Sugarcane Profits Irrigated Sugarcane Profits UCD/Embrapa
  50. 50. Behavioral Modeling • Value Added – Insight into farming and farm household decisions – These decisions can affect water use – Insights into water-poverty links • Practicality – Array of tools available • Static models (LUS) • Equilibrium models (PMP) • Agent-based models • Others – Linking hydro and behavioral models can be challenging • Depending on circumstances, it can be worth the effort UCD/Embrapa
  51. 51. Knowledge Pathways and Impact Pathways Min. of Ag. Agents of Change Embrapa CPWF Embrapa ANA Research Centers BFPPolicy Central Policy y g Water Mgmt. Policy y World Bank W ld B k ‘Placeholders’ ‘Placeholders’ ‘Placeholders’ ‘Pl h ld ’ Policy ‘Placeholders’ IEB -- NGOs Policy ‘Placeholders’ Placeholders Embrapa HQ Policy Core Team IPEA ‘Placeholders’ •Research Policy •Training g ‘Placeholders’ •Outreach Research Collaborators Brazilian Embrapa Research NGOs Farmers International Universities Centers • Cooperatives Research • Brasilia • Savannah Community y • Petrolina •Coastal zone • Minas Gerais •Corn and sorghum • Ceara •Semi-arid UCD/Embrapa
  52. 52. Research Outputs • Written Output – Journal papers conference papers working papers, papers, papers, posters, etc. – Policy Briefs (Portuguese and English) • Methodologies – Linked, hydro-economic models – LUS models • Human Capital – Embrapa, UC Davis, U. of Brasilia • Data Sets – A i lt Agriculture, water resources, poverty t t UCD/Embrapa
  53. 53. Next Steps for the SFRB Research Team • Refine and Use the Models to Address Pressing Water-Ag-Poverty Issues in Brazil • Deliver these Messages to Decision Makers • Contribute to CPWF Research/Training Efforts • Convey Models and Data to Collaborators • Publish our Findings g – Journal papers – Book on our multi scale effort in the SFRB multi-scale UCD/Embrapa
  54. 54. SFRB Potential Contributions g to Phase II Basin Challenges • Benefit Sharing Mechanisms – Sharing water versus sharing the benefits of water • Adaptive Management d p ve ge e – Objectives? – rural poverty alleviation, managing environmental flows, etc. – What are we reacting to? – weather, climate change, market conditions • Improved Livelihoods – Which stakeholders, by how much? – Uncertainty and risk • Th I t The Integrated M t d Management of P d ti S t t f Production Systems B d on Based Groundwater – Surface water/groundwater interactions • Improved Planning and Management of Hydroelectric Facilities – Long-term management with variable rainfall – Effects of agricultural change • Developing and Maintaining Sustainable Small Reservoirs – Volume, placement and management UCD/Embrapa
  55. 55. Pause for Discussion • How Have We Done? • What Have We Missed? • What Would YOU Like to See the SFRB O i S S Team Contribute to the CPWF? UCD/Embrapa
  56. 56. Concluding Remarks • Our Stories – Steve Vosti and Marcelo Torres – Marco Maneta • Your Views UCD/Embrapa
  57. 57. Muito Obrigado! UCD/Embrapa

×