Nile Basin Focal Project-Intervention Analysis


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Presented at the Pre-Forum BFP meeting, 7-8 November, 2008 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

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  • Interesting approach, but sitting here in Kenya trying to figure out what advice to give the government of Kenya on irrigation investments, I could not see how to use this. Frankly, they have strong arguments for abrogating the colonial period treaty and taking water (though of course they will not do that).
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Nile Basin Focal Project-Intervention Analysis

  1. 1. Nile Basin Focal Project Development of Work plans WP5: Interventions Analysis Seleshi Bekele Awulachew Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  2. 2. Content 1. Objectives 2. Key Issues and Research Questions 3. Expected Outputs 4. Methodology 5. Preliminary Results 6. Expected Outcomes Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  3. 3. 1. Objectives • To understand interventions that can have greater impacts in the Nile Basin • Specific objectives are to: – inventory and characterize various existing interventions in relation to production systems and space – document success and failures of interventions and map intervention types – undertake detail performance analysis of existing interventions and their impacts through quantitative and qualitative analysis and recommend best bet interventions and implementation mechanisms – undertake tradeoff analysis, ranking and modeling to select and evaluate high impact interventions and implementation strategy – Develop problem tree & impact pathways through interventions Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  4. 4. 2. Key Issues: The Basin is highly variable, the river is very important, various interventions Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  5. 5. 2. Key Research Questions • What are the existing water related interventions in the basin under various production systems? • Which interventions have succeeded and which ones failed? • What are the technical, economic, institutional setups for successful or failed interventions under various systems? • Which future interventions are required to bring high impact on poverty, water availability, access and productivity for various target groups? Note: All questions may not be answered but will lead to future work Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  6. 6. 3. Expected Outputs 1: Literature Review & Assembly of Knowledge Report i) Inventory & on desk characterization ii) Ongoing and planned interventions by respective countries and regional organs (Master plans, SVP, SAPs) iii) Intervention types under various production systems, sub-basins (past/existing, under implementation, future) iv) Success and failures stories and causes v) Intervention scales and up-scaling possibilities vi) Short list of interventions through stakeholders consultation vii) Report of literature review, long and short list of interventions 2: Detailed Assessments Report i. Map of intervention types by production & hydronomic zones - GIS based map ii. Design tools for evaluation of performance at selected sites & systems: PRA, questionnaires, interviews iii. Evaluate performances of interventions iv. Intermediate report on performance of interventions- -RR v. Adopted model/s for evaluating quantitative and qualitative impacts of interventions- model setup vi. Identify potential adoption sites using GIS and product of other WPs vii. Special study report on recommendations of suits of interventions, necessary mechanisms and implications – RR and article/s 3: Assessment of High Potential Interventions Report i. Generate high impact scenarios ii. Select/develop model for scenario analysis iii. Evaluate high potential interventions and their impacts (water availability, SE and environmental) through tradeoffs analysis (large versus small, HP vs agriculture, single vs multi-purpose, ), response to new market opportunities (virtual water, power trade, ..) through MCA, ranking and modeling eg Watersim iv. Validate the high potential interventions through stakeholders consultation v. Report on high potential interventions 4: Problem Tree and Impact Pathway Report ( monitoring and analyzing the impact of the project) Used as a means of thinking, implementing, – Implementing group discuss and identify problem tree (cause-effect) and impact pathways – Problem tree and impact pathway is developed for the project – The impact pathway is validated by stakeholders – The impact pathway document used by the project Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  7. 7. 4. Methodology: Inter-linkages of WPs WP1: Poverty WP2: Hydrology WP4: Institutions Analysis Water Accounting Spatially disaggregated water balance Economic Farming Spatial WP3: Water evaluations systems dissagreg Productivity ation Water use systems Factors of WP5: Intervention productivity: land, Potential Analysis water, intervention WP6: Knowledge CPWF Supported by: Management 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  8. 8. 4. Methodology: Analysis • Identify and map existing • develop comprehensive list of interventions intervention • map interventions • superimpose maps • short list of interventions • Design tools, evaluate • indices, PRA, questioners, data collections performances, identify best interventions, • evaluate performance develop scenarios, and • validate scenarios-consultations evaluate • tools for scenario analysis • Define feasible • impact on water budget, productivity, socio- options; evaluate economics and institutions; potential impacts • tradeoff results and impacts Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  9. 9. 5. Preliminary Results: Scales of Interventions • Hydronomic Zones • 5 specific detail case study sites – Ethiopian Highlands – Victoria Nile – The Sudd – Gezirra – Delta • One integrated basin wide analysis Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  10. 10. The Detail Case Study Sites Y # SU DA Monga lla Y # [ % N im ule Laropi As wa P anyango # Y Y # Pakw ac h # P araa A lb Y Y K am d ini e rt # M u rc hision F a lls N il e Y # M a sindi Port B utiaba Y # D R C Bu nia L. A lbert Y # [ % B ugond o L. Ky og a Kafu Na ma sag ali [ % Vic Bw er am ule Y # tor ili ki M bu lam u ti # Y S em ia Fo rt P o rta l Nil [ % M uz izi e N gam b a Ow e n Falls D am ia N zo o Y # Y # Si Jinja [ % Y ala K aton ga Kam p a la Kasen yi # L. Ge or ge Y Ent eb be % [ Kis um u So nd u Ish ang o Y # Y # # K azing a C han nel Y [ % K atw e L. Ed ward Ka ge L. V ictor ia ra Bu ko ba [ % [ % M ara M us om a K igali L. Kivu [ % Nyaborongo D im [ % a M w anza u Sim vuv yu Ru L. Ta ng any ika D isc harge S tation s Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa Y # [ % To w n s
  11. 11. Aggregated Basin Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  12. 12. 5. Preliminary Results: Categorization of Interventions • Product/production system based – Crop Based: Field Crops, Horticulture, Forestry/ agro-Forestry – Animal based: Livestock, Fisheries/Aquaculture • Farming system based – Rain fed, irrigation, mixed crop-livestock, etc • Physical based – Infrastructural interventions – Water and land based interventions: eg watershed management • Socio-economic based – Agricultural based – Ag trade, virtual water – Hydropower-interconnection – Industrial • Institutional and policy based – Institutional innovations; basin, sub-basin institutions – Benefit/water-sharing Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  13. 13. Example: Production System and Interventions • Hydronomic profiles • Production system Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  14. 14. Infrastructural Interventions • Control and Management of Natural Lakes (2) • Large Dams/Reservoirs and Diversions (15) • Small dams • Ground Water Storage and Recharge • Non-Conventional Water Sources Technologies Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  15. 15. River Schematization, Flow and Interventions Khartoum Hawata 1,102 Rahad 2,797 Dinder Giwasi Lake Tana Sennar Bosheilo SUDAN 3,809 Roseires 3,920 Beles Outlet Lake Tana Border 4,345 Welaka North Gojam 2,072 Wonbera South Gojam Jemma ETHIOPIA 4,798 3,874 5,012 4,389 Kessie Muger 2,440 6,246 Anger 2,355 1,719 2,187 Dabus Flow gauging station 5,673 Reservoir Guder Mean annual Didessa 4,345 Finchaa discharge (Mm3) Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  16. 16. Future Interventions Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  17. 17. Capacity Building • Tewdros : Water Resources Allocation of the Nile River Basin: A cooperative Game Theoretic Approach – Integrated economic-hydrologic-institutional modeling at the River Basin Scale • George: Developing Optimal Economic Incentives for Managing Transboundary Water Externalities in the Blue Nile River Basin – Application of economic instruments to review the past and present legal documents on the Blue Nile and treaties governing the entire Nile River Basin – Modeling optimal allocation of water for maximizing use benefits among the countries established • Binyam: Equitable Distribution of Benefits in Transboundary Waters • 6 M.Sc. students Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa
  18. 18. 6. Expected Outcomes Output 1 Interventions from Basin and International experience are compiled, made available and referred/used Output 2 Highly performing interventions are promoted Output 3 Development partners integrate high impact interventions scenarios in their investments Output 4 Used as a means to design, implement, monitor and create impact through the project Supported by: CPWF 07/11/2008, Addis Ababa