Limpopo Basin Focal Project –
  Proposed Research Plans
  P      dR       h Pl

  Douglas J. Merrey, Project Leader,
FANRP...
Overview
               O    i
1.
1    Introducing the Limpopo River
     Basin-[cut to save time]
2.   The LBFP Team
3.  ...
The Team-1
                 Team 1

FANRPAN and ARC joint venture
  ARC leads Water Availability and Knowledge
  Managemen...
The T
                 Th Team-2
                         2
  National universities: Botswana, Eduardo
  Mondlane (UEM, Mo...
Goals

To identify agricultural water
interventions whose implementation
will reduce poverty and enhance food
            ...
Objectives To
Objectives—To achieve the goals

To identify, organize, synthesize and make
          y    g          y
wide...
Key Assumptions
Efficacy of a “basin” perspective as opposed to
sectoral, national
sectoral national, etc
  River basins a...
Research Approach-General
R      hA       hG      l
Make
M k use of existing data bases
         f   i i    d    b
  Espec...
WP 2-Availability & Access-1
          2 A il bilit     A      1
Highly variable rainfall                       180
with f...
WP 2-Availability & Access-2
   2 A il bilit     A      2
 Will update existing Pitman Model
 Build on work already done b...
WP 1 Poverty Analysis-1
           P    t A l i 1




Changes in Water Poverty Index, 1994-2005, in the
Olifants Catchment...
WP 1 Poverty Analysis-2
     P    t A l i 2
If we can find data:
   Head
   H d count i d
               t index, P
      ...
Gini Coefficient: Distribution of Estimated Direct
     and Indirect Rural Water Use in the Olifants-
     Cullis & van Ko...
WP 3 W t Productivity-1
          Water P d ti it 1
  IWMI will use existing datasets, e.g., Olifants
  catchment dataset
...
Water P d ti it 2
     W t Productivity-2




Water Productivity by Sector in the Olifants
Basin —Prasad et al. 2006
Water P d ti it O t t
W t Productivity--Outputs
Assessment of water productivity
A          t f    t       d ti it
for mai...
WP 4 Institutional Analysis:
     Working Hypotheses
Outcomes of any interventions will
depend on the policy and i tit ti
...
Analytical framework
Institutional Analysis--Outputs
     I tit ti    lA l i O t t
1.
1  An analytical overview of laws policies institutions
 ...
WP 5 Interventions
            I t     ti

Definition: Human action that
  f
 significantly changes or contributes
 to: wa...
Reaching out to Stakeholders
R   hi     t t St k h ld
R4D means we must place high priority
                       l    hi...
Interventions
                                     inventory


                    Availability    Productivity   Access

...
WP 5 Interventions: OUTPUTS

Output 1: A list of potential significant
   p                p           g
  intervention pa...
Strategic interventions for the basin

 1.   Identify h pothesi ed inte ention
      Identif hypothesized intervention
   ...
STAKEHOLDER MAPPING

   FANRPAN
      Network of FANR government, civil society, research
      institutions in 12 countri...
WP 6 Knowledge Management
  Supports other WPs
  Facilitates
  F ilit t access to data and information (spatial
          ...
Project O t t
            P j t Outputs
Each WP specifies its outputs
         p               p
   Five main outputs in p...
Anticipated Outcomes and Impacts

            Outcomes:
            O t
New insights and knowledge on
water-poverty
water ...
Impacts
                 I    t
Our strength is the diverse and strong
relationships of partners with key decision makers
...
www.waterandfood.org
www.fanrpan.org
    f
www.arc.agric.za/limpopo
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Limpopo Basin Focal Project –Proposed Research Plans

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Presented at the Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

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Limpopo Basin Focal Project –Proposed Research Plans

  1. 1. Limpopo Basin Focal Project – Proposed Research Plans P dR h Pl Douglas J. Merrey, Project Leader, FANRPAN, & Litha Magingxa, Limpopo Basin Coordinator, ARC-South Africa Ca , Co o b a, 5 eb ua y 008 Cali, Colombia, 1-5 February 2008
  2. 2. Overview O i 1. 1 Introducing the Limpopo River Basin-[cut to save time] 2. The LBFP Team 3. Goals and Objectives 4. Approach of the LBFP: Research 5. Approach of the LBFP: Stakeholder Consultations 6. Expected products 7. Anticipated Outcomes and Impacts
  3. 3. The Team-1 Team 1 FANRPAN and ARC joint venture ARC leads Water Availability and Knowledge Management WPs FANRPAN leads Institutions and Interventions WP and overall project Close working relationship with Basin Coordinator IWMI and GWP SA regional partners GWP-SA IWMI Leads Water Productivity WP and is associated with +/- 8 CPWF projects in basin GWP and FANRPAN will co-lead stakeholder d ill l d t k h ld consultations University of Malawi—leads Poverty Analysis WP
  4. 4. The T Th Team-2 2 National universities: Botswana, Eduardo Mondlane (UEM, Mozambique), Pretoria, Li M dl (UEM M bi ) P t i Limpopo [new], Zimbabwe Mozambique Institute of Agricultural Research (IIAM) UEM & IIAM have on-going CPWF & other projects in Limpopo U of Botswana has ongoing hydrology work Pretoria, Limpopo, Zi b b P t i Li Zimbabwe h have ongoing social i i l science research in Limpopo Two independent consultants (one was leader of CP 47)) Team is large and diverse, but highly experienced and professional Will be complemented by students (10% of the total budget)
  5. 5. Goals To identify agricultural water interventions whose implementation will reduce poverty and enhance food food, health, and environmental security in the Limpopo Basin and beyond p p y To identify gaps in knowledge about agricultural water management g g options in the basin requiring further research
  6. 6. Objectives To Objectives—To achieve the goals To identify, organize, synthesize and make y g y widely available existing data and knowledge on the Limpopo Basin To selectively fill gaps in knowledge where possible th ibl through short targeted studies h h tt t d t di To prepare a register of Basin Stakeholders and scientists as a basis for creating a “network map” and dynamic scientific “community of practice” Drawing on this knowledge base, identify specific “intervention packages” for reducing poverty intervention packages through agricultural water management improvements
  7. 7. Key Assumptions Efficacy of a “basin” perspective as opposed to sectoral, national sectoral national, etc River basins as natural “systems” [but not social systems] Multiple scales: farm, micro-watershed, sub-basin, whole b i h l basin Interdisciplinary systems perspective Low agricultural water productivity is characteristic, characteristic and a major factor underlying poverty Is it only ‘productivity’ or is it also ‘access’? Our proposal emphasized access Agricultural water management is an entry point for reducing poverty But evidence that reforming water institutions without reference to land reform does not work
  8. 8. Research Approach-General R hA hG l Make M k use of existing data bases f i i d b Especially detailed for RSA (ARC, IWMI) IWMI has considerable data but questions on how to access Build on outputs from CPWF and other on-going research projects i h j t Not clear how to get access to CPWF Project outputs Use students strategically to fill gaps, provide analytical support
  9. 9. WP 2-Availability & Access-1 2 A il bilit A 1 Highly variable rainfall 180 with frequent extreme 160 events 140 120 Much of basin—rain fed T o ta l ( m m ) 100 agriculture is very risky 80 60 Botswana, South Africa— 40 considerable 20 development for mining mining, 0 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep industry, urban use Rainfall Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotransiration 50% PE Impacts of climate change—more extreme g events, changes in Mean Monthly Rainfall f timing, & lower average and Mean Monthly rainfall Potential Evapotranspiration for the Olifants Catchment –McCartney et al. 2004
  10. 10. WP 2-Availability & Access-2 2 A il bilit A 2 Will update existing Pitman Model Build on work already done by ARC, Univ. of Botswana, & countries Outputs: O t t Updated model and training in use GIS based GIS-based water availability and (?) hydronomic zone maps; An irrigation and rainfed agriculture risk assessment [indications of huge trade offs of irrigated area and risk]; Water accounting graphs and diagrams Scientific S i tifi papers, etc. t
  11. 11. WP 1 Poverty Analysis-1 P t A l i 1 Changes in Water Poverty Index, 1994-2005, in the Olifants Catchment – Magagula et al 2006
  12. 12. WP 1 Poverty Analysis-2 P t A l i 2 If we can find data: Head H d count i d t index, P Poverty Line, Poverty t Li P t Gap Gini Coefficient (measure of inequality) Water Poverty Index Probability of being poor in a given year— probit analysis Need to link poverty maps with water availability—likely feasible in some areas but not universally for the basin Will make use of existing case studies, g , qualitative data and try to use students to add to this Example: use household typologies done in 3 sites over 2 3 seasons under CP 30 [wetlands 2-3 and livelihoods]
  13. 13. Gini Coefficient: Distribution of Estimated Direct and Indirect Rural Water Use in the Olifants- Cullis & van Koppen Percentage of Total Rural Use (%) 100% 90% U 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of Rural Households (%) Line of Equality Direct Water Use Indirect Use Planned outputs include: •Water-poverty maps and data bases (household types, gender) linked to water availability, agro-ecological systems, etc •Scientific report on water-poverty relationships in the basin water poverty basin, as a contribution to intervention packages
  14. 14. WP 3 W t Productivity-1 Water P d ti it 1 IWMI will use existing datasets, e.g., Olifants catchment dataset RS datasets (global and local) Spatial and temporal variability of use & users Uses, users (WARMS database), and their distribution Hydrological diversions s actual se H d ologi al – di e sions vs a t al use WEAP - Water Evaluation And Planning modeling – results for the Olifants Synthesis of CPWF experience Make opportunistic use of smaller data bases from the basin (and WARMS for Limpopo Water Management Area) A key issue is other uses have far higher $/drop returns—can we use Prasad et al. 2006 methodology in other parts of the basin? What is CPWF position?—it emphasized “agricultural” water productivity, but this may not be as critical to p y, y poverty reduction and development in RSA and Botswana
  15. 15. Water P d ti it 2 W t Productivity-2 Water Productivity by Sector in the Olifants Basin —Prasad et al. 2006
  16. 16. Water P d ti it O t t W t Productivity--Outputs Assessment of water productivity A t f t d ti it for main agricultural systems Maps and other products from quantitative analysis Analysis of opportunities for improving water productivity Analysis of opportunities to reduce y pp poverty through enhanced water productivity
  17. 17. WP 4 Institutional Analysis: Working Hypotheses Outcomes of any interventions will depend on the policy and i tit ti d d th li d institutional l environment Comprehensive Assessment Chapter 5 Single-dimensional i t Si l di i l interventions are ti inadequate—need practical packages of interventions including institutional & policy innovations In the Limpopo Basin, lack of access to reliable water supply is a more important cause of poverty than is low productivity—especially for women Cullis & van Koppen—gini coefficient for water access in Olifants is 0 96 0.96
  18. 18. Analytical framework
  19. 19. Institutional Analysis--Outputs I tit ti lA l i O t t 1. 1 An analytical overview of laws policies institutions laws, policies, (informal as well as formal) and interventions currently being implemented or under consideration in the basin or through SADC; 2. An i A inventory of stakeholders and institutions in the t f t k h ld d i tit ti i th basin as a basis for the network map (led by Knowledge Base group); 3. An issues report to g p guide the scoping p p g phase research; 4. Interdisciplinary case studies of selected promising interventions, especially institutional innovations; and 5. Scientific papers. Important: Engagement with stakeholders from ‘top to bottom’ will be critical for success!
  20. 20. WP 5 Interventions I t ti Definition: Human action that f significantly changes or contributes to: water availability access and availability, productivity Conceived as intervention “packages ” packages, not single-dimensional
  21. 21. Reaching out to Stakeholders R hi t t St k h ld R4D means we must place high priority l hi h i i on application, impact of our work Impact Pathways; Network models Stakeholders--Large number, wide diversity, at multiple levels Communications through multiple media in addition to consultations All project partners have complementary strengths in terms of stakeholder relationships—need to build on these FANRPAN and GWP-SA will lead
  22. 22. Interventions inventory Availability Productivity Access 1. Infrastructure 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 13 1.3 13 1.3 2. Technology 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3. Policies& 3.2 3.2 3.2 Institutions 3.3 3.3 3.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 4. New 4.2 4.2 4.2 Knowledge 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.
  23. 23. WP 5 Interventions: OUTPUTS Output 1: A list of potential significant p p g intervention packages for the basin Output 2: Qualitative and quantitative analysis of likely impacts on water use and productivity Output 3: Strategic interventions for the basin Output 4: Policy briefs
  24. 24. Strategic interventions for the basin 1. Identify h pothesi ed inte ention Identif hypothesized intervention packages which are appropriate 2. 2 Test hypotheses through consultations with key stakeholders 3. Assess these hypothesized packages yp p g through case studies 4. Define assessment criteria and target population, consult with stakeholders l ti lt ith t k h ld at various levels 5. 5 Learn experiences from other BFPs BFPs.
  25. 25. STAKEHOLDER MAPPING FANRPAN Network of FANR government, civil society, research institutions in 12 countries—regional (e.g., SADC, COMESA) & national National “nodes” convene policy dialogues, promote p y g ,p policy research Especially strong in agriculture sector GWP-SA Network of water-oriented i tit ti N t k f t i t d institutions: government,t civil society; part of global network; close links to Waternet, SADC Water Division Strong on local civil society links as well Country water Partnerships—convene stakeholder dialogues Especially strong in water resources and services sectors We will build on these networks and those of other partners
  26. 26. WP 6 Knowledge Management Supports other WPs Facilitates F ilit t access to data and information (spatial t d t di f ti ( ti l and non-spatial) Management of meta-data base, web site [in IDIS??? seems IDIS???---seems not operational] Facilitates data custodianship, networking Project brochure in English and Portuguese Support team knowledge sharing and wider sharing, stakeholder consultations Knowledge products: CDs, DVDs, publications, newsletters, newsletters virtual reality tool ARC leads: experience developing and managing AGIS (Agric. Geo-referenced Info System) (http://www.agis.agric.za/agisweb/agis.html), custodian of IDIS-Limpopo Invited ReSAKSS now re-considering this.
  27. 27. Project O t t P j t Outputs Each WP specifies its outputs p p Five main outputs in proposal: 1. Revised Limpopo Basin Profile including GIS-based atlas of water- poverty 2. Validated agricultural water management “intervention packages” 3. Network map of stakeholders 4. Demo of “ i D f “virtual reality” tool l li ” l (www.naledi3D.com) 5. Specification of topics needing further research
  28. 28. Anticipated Outcomes and Impacts Outcomes: O t New insights and knowledge on water-poverty water poverty nexus in Basin developed and shared Potentially significant intervention packages identified and workshopped Gaps in knowledge needing further research specified and prioritized
  29. 29. Impacts I t Our strength is the diverse and strong relationships of partners with key decision makers l ti hi f t ith k d i i k and stakeholder representatives: SADC, LIMPCOM, National, civil society Alliance of agriculture and water LBFP as a means to further enhance CPWF Basin Coordinators’ influence Strong emphasis on stakeholder consultation from phase 1 To help us shape outcomes, and to achieve a high level of buy-in No promises, but reasonable likelihood to influence policies, investments, and implementation strategies
  30. 30. www.waterandfood.org www.fanrpan.org f www.arc.agric.za/limpopo

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