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Karkheh Basin Focal Project:Synthesis of approach, findings and lessons


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This was presented at teh Basin Focal Project Review meeting in Cali, Colombia from 1-5 Feb, 2008

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Karkheh Basin Focal Project:Synthesis of approach, findings and lessons

  1. 1. Karkheh Basin Focal Project: Synthesis of approach, findings and approach lessons Cali BFP Conference September 17-20, 2007 17 20,
  2. 2. Work Package 2 Water Availability W A il bili
  3. 3. WP 2-Approach 1. Synthesis studies 2. 2 Time series meteorological and h d l i l d Ti i l i l d hydrological data collection f ll i from secondary sources/relevant ministries 3. Identification of information/data gaps and filling 4. 4 Quick understanding of hydrology and water balance a simple balance, spreadsheet water account applied with help of Mac Kirby 5. Detailed hydrological analysis – Assessment of the spatial variability in land use classification, precipitation and actual evaportranspiration using surface energy i it ti d t l t i ti i f balance model – Time series analysis of stream flow mainly using Flow Duration Curves (FDC) approach – Detailed b t h D t il d sub-catchment l t level water b l l t balance analysis using HBV and l i i d SWAT models
  4. 4. Spatial distribution of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (2002-3) (2002 3) Rainfall distribution in the Basin Actual evapotranspiration in the (2002-3) (2002 3) Basin (2002-3)
  5. 5. Percentage distribution of ETa from different land use classes (year 2002-03, summary of SEBS results) Irrigated crops 11% Water Range Lands 7% 27% Other land classes 27% Bare Lands/Urban areas Bare Rain fed crops 27% Lands/urban 29% areas 3% Grass land 7% Orchards Forest 2% 21% Irrigated crops 39% (a) Upper Karkheh (b) Lower Karkheh
  6. 6. WP 2 Findings • Scarcity and Competing Demands Meeting the competing water demands is emerging as the key challenge in Karkheh mainly because of increasing allocations for irrigation • Groundwater Overdraft Rapidly increasing reliance on groundwater use for agriculture, especially in upper Karkheh. Groundwater withdrawals have already exceeded the safe limits in Gamasiab and Gharsu sub-basins and sub basins pose a threat to agricultural sustainability. • High Variability in ET Remote sensing analysis showed high inter- and intra-subcatchment level variability in evaportranspiration which is mainly attributed to fragmented and diverse land uses in Karkheh-possible g p opportunities • Flow Variability and Planning FDC analysis reveals that planning on the basis of mean annual surface water availability could only provide a supply security in the range of 35-50%. There is a need to incorporate the natural variability of surface water availability i water resources d i bilit f f t il bilit in t development and l t d allocation strategies, particularly for low flow years when meeting the competing water demands becomes more difficult.
  7. 7. Hawr Al Azim Swamp Devolution 7,600 Km2 of primary wetlands areas disappeared Year 1973-76 Year 2000
  8. 8. Work Package 3: Water Productivity
  9. 9. WP 3 - Approach 1. Synthesis study 2a. Secondary data collection (district) Crop production, Livestock production, Forest production, Prices 2b. Remote sensing based analysis Land use classification, Yield estimation for major crops, RS determined Et (surface energy balance), RS interpolated yield 3. Farm Survey Sample survey, all sub-basins in Karkheh Small, medium, Small medium large farmers; rainfed rainfed, irrigated and mixed farms. data on factors of production
  10. 10. A paper based on Water Productivity is submitted for BPF Special Session, 13 IWRA World Water Congress at Montpellier, France – September 2008.
  11. 11. 0.40 0.35 0.34 0.30 m3) ductivity (US$ /m 0.25 ation water prod 0.20 0.19 0.15 0.13 Irriga 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.05 0 05 0.04 0 04 0.03 0.00 Morocco (Triffa) Turkey (Seyhan) Niger (Saga) Egypt (Nile Delta) Pakistan India (Mahi Iran (Karkheh (Chishtian) Kadana) basin) Country (Irrigation system)
  12. 12. WP 3 Findings 1. 1 Likely b t ti l Lik l substantial room for water productivity f t d ti it through changed practices further substantiated by the high variation in farm scale productivity estimates even within the same sub catchments Though of sub-catchments. course cross-country comparisons must be used with caution. 2. 2 Likely substantial room for water productivity increase through reallocation, though our models not sufficient for analysis 3. 3 Importance of Livestock (fish others?) (fish,
  13. 13. Work Package 1 Poverty
  14. 14. WP 1-Approach 1. Synthesis study 2. Use Household Income and Expenditure Surveys for Iran covering the last 2 decades and calculate g urban and rural poverty lines for Iran • We were lucky it existed 3. Re-categorize data to perform analysis on the Karkheh and its sub-basins
  15. 15. WP 1 Findings 1. Poverty in Iran and the Karkheh has dropped over y pp the last 20 years, particularly in rural areas. 2. The Karkheh basin is less poor than is Iran as a whole. 3. Rural areas of the Karkheh are less poor than urban, when adjusted for differing costs of living 4. 4 Farmers are in the top half of the rural income F i th t h lf f th li bracket in the Karkheh. 5. The poorest rural area of the Karkheh is the lower reach-based on 6 sub-basin breakdown
  16. 16. U ne m 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 pl oy 0.40 ed M an ag er C le Tr r k ad ep er s on Pr Fa o rm du er ct io n w U or ke ns ki r lle d w or ke r KB C ou nt ry
  17. 17. Work Package 4 Institutional Analysis I i i lA l i
  18. 18. WP 4- Approach 1. Examine the history of the basin-in terms of water use as well as th policy environment i which th t use ll the li i t in hi h that changed. 2. Gain an understanding of the formal institutions directly i di tl involved in the water sector within th l d i th t t ithi the Karkheh. 3. Look at those institutions within Iran in general and the Karkheh in particular which are directly related to the alleviation of poverty. 4. Look at some of the broader policy issues within Iran which are likely to influence both water use and poverty within the Karkheh.
  19. 19. WP 4 Findings 1. Basin has gone through a series of phases since 1900, the most recent of which has put substantial emphasis on wheat production, not water productivity. Questions of sustainability 2. “Standard” set of partially overlapping water management institutions 3. Large set of poverty alleviation institutions
  20. 20. 4) Broader issues • Fall of Shah, conflict with US/West and Iran-Iraq war q made food self-sufficiency a national priority • Ongoing wars on two borders and nuclear conflict with west given continued reason for policy • Result is use of water for low productivity grains that could be imported • P i i and subsidy system th t b Pricing d b id t that benefits mostly th fit tl the urban sector and encourages waste-Iran now one of largest agricultural importers • Implicit subsidy on fuel equal to 12% of GDP-targeted redistribution of about ½ would eliminate poverty
  21. 21. Work Package 5 Water, Water Poverty and Productivity Linkages (Analysis of Interventions)
  22. 22. PODIUMSim: 2025 Horizon (Food & Water Demand and Supply) Three scenarios are developed: 1- Business as Usual Scenario Focus on wheat 2- Sustainable Management Scenario Focus on the environment 3- “Best Case” Scenario Focus on tradeoffs and social optimums Productivity/Poverty in all
  23. 23. WP 5 Findings • No question that increase in water use has allowed expansion of area and increase in y yields • But now no direct connection between p production and rural p povertyy • Probably greater connection between p production and urban p poverty and/or y national food security goals-which may be in opposition to WP maximization
  24. 24. Trends in poverty and agricultural production, Karkheh 1,800 1 800 0.7 07 1,600 0.6 1,400 , 0.5 1,200 1,000 0.4 000 Ha 800 0.3 600 0.2 400 Harvested Area Poverty Incidence 0.1 200 0 0 1983 1993 2004
  25. 25. Karkheh Recommendations • the use of non-agricultural water measures is likely to b t be a more effective solution t remaining rural ff ti l ti to i i l poverty in the Karkheh basinareas, better and increased use 1. For both rainfed and irrigated and Iran. of inputs. • In the shortgto medium term, agricultural water policy 2. For irrigated areas, better targeted irrigation applications. g g should For rainfed areas, exploring means ofphysical water h ld f 3. focus on i improvements in additional water t t i h i l productivity wherever possible, though considering possible application so as to improve the use scarce water resources for given national food security priorities. trade-offs with downstream areas. Promising options include: 4. 4 While opportunities of improving productivity exist in both the • In the longerlower Karkheh, towardsbasin appears to be most upper and term, shift the upper economic water productivityfor productivity improvement potential. lower promising by moving water away from productivity grain production and towards higher value agricultural and other activities including hydropower generation and urban uses.
  26. 26. High Priority Research 1. What makes basin results comparable or not? – Agro-ecosystm Agro ecosystm similarity? – Economic similarity? – Political similarity? The answer may change for given basins over time. 2. 2 What are the national and global water impacts of food self-sufficiency policies, such as those caused by food embargo threats? – especially applicable to the arid and generally water scarce states of the Middle East/North Africa. – Not unreasonable to hypothesize that water productivity gains from policy change in this arena could be as large or larger than those possible through technical intervention intervention. 3. Is there a general framework to determine when and where (both within and across countries/basins) water is a cost effective poverty alleviation tool? 4. 4 How to better consider surface/groundwater interaction and implement effective groundwater policy? 5. How best to capture livestock, fisheries, forestry and possibly other agricultural systems? How to easily move from average to marginal water productivity calculations for use in decision making?
  27. 27. Key suggestions for new BFPs • Do quick assessments/reports on key issues • Take T k an historic perspective to understand h hi i i d d how things got to the hi h current state • Take a broad view of policy and its effects on agriculture and water use • Make sure any water productivity estimates are inclusive, e.g. livestock-maintain difference between average and marginal • Think simultaneously about water as a means for overall economic growth, growth reducer of poverty in general and reducer of poverty in the general, agricultural sector and the tradeoffs between the three • Put another way, don’t force the water poverty issue but think about water as a means for additional poverty alleviation • MAKE THE PROJECT A TEAM EFFORT WITH EACH PACKAGE LEADER IS INVOLVED IN EVERY WORK PACKAGE
  28. 28. Actor (or group of Change in Practice Change in Knowledge Knowledge, What are the project s project's What are the key actors who required to achieve Attitudes, Skills and strategies assumptions? are the project's vision? Aspirations (KASA) (including expected to required to achieve development of change in the project's vision? outputs) to bring the same about these way) changes in KASA and Practice? CPWF It will provide base Methodologies used/ Frequent interaction with The methodologies and information and developed for each CPWF BFP central process useful for highlight emerging work packages will be and other BFB Karkheh and issues related to useful to conduct teams to share similar river basins agricultural poverty, similar studies in other methodologies, productivity and CPWF river basins experience and sustainability in the results basin context. This will help CPWF (and donor agencies) to make strategic decision for further funding. Ministry of Jehad-e- The results will help The improved understanding Joint studies with Iranian Capacity building will Agriculture; transformation towards of basin function in organizations/institut contribute to Ministry of basin scale term of water es were conducted. longer term object Energy; perspective on issues availability, use, Trainings of NARS of the project. The Ministry of of land and water, fl d d t productivity and d ti it d for PODIUMSi f PODIUMSim results of the lt f th Rural agriculture, poverty livelihood will help analysis were projects will be planning; and their inter-linkages enhance interaction conducted. Results uptake by relevant Universities between different were disseminated institutes. (University of ministries. Thereby, through workshop, Tabrez) formulating coherent IWMI/CPWF reports, policies for improving peer reviewed land and water journal papers and productivity and PhD thesis reducing water related poverty.
  29. 29. Outputs Who will use the outputs? Why? What is in it for Change in Knowledge, Indicator(s) of change them? Attitudes, Skills, Aspirations and Practice resulting from use 1) Karkheh BFP Project CPWF, IWMI, AREO, To plan future research Improved understanding Research & development reports MOE and other agenda and make of basin scale investments leading Iranian partners better water issues related to towards addressing management water productivity, key challenges in river decisions in the poverty and basin management light of the tradeoffs answers to the key BFP questions out spanning from the BFP research 2) IWMI research CPWF, Policy makers, improving knowledge Improved understanding Reference of this research in reports/working t / ki water managers, t andd and management d t policy d li documentations, t ti papers scientists/research understanding of basin scale discussions, research ers, students, based on the issues related to papers farmers scientific water productivity, information and poverty and water policy directions management. 3) Conference Participants Sharing and learning Extracting relevant No. of workshops/conference papers/presentatio from each others lessons/messages organized ns/ Discussions experiences for their local context 4) Journal papers Researchers/scientists, New knowledge, Improved understanding Reference of this research in p policy makers, y , methodologies g and management g p policy documentations, y , water managers, and scientific facts of basin scale discussions, research scientists, issues related to papers students, farmers water productivity, and other poverty and water stakeholders management. 5) PhD thesis Researchers/scientists, New knowledge, Improved understanding Reference of this research in policy makers, methodologies and management policy documentations, water managers, and scientific facts of basin scale discussions, research scientists, issues related to papers students, farmers water productivity, and other poverty and water stakeholders management.
  30. 30. Thanks