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8 faster networks – faster to the abyss

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8 faster networks – faster to the abyss

  1. 1. Faster Networks Faster to the Abyss? Maximilian Ott CTO, Incoming Media Sr. Principal Researcher, NICTA max@incoming-media.com
  2. 2. Objective • Carriers need to provide a different service • From “packet/bit delivery” to “content logistics” • Outline • • • • Why nobody likes Carriers The Standoff between Carrier & Service Providers Incoming: Solving Mobile Video with Data Science A Proposal for a new Carrier Service 2
  3. 3. Nobody likes Carriers Voice SMS Not too long ago they actually provided a service customers wanted http://bit.ly/1bOmlVl 3
  4. 4. Nobody likes Carriers Voice SMS YouTube Facebook Carrier http://bit.ly/1bOmlVl 4
  5. 5. … Even the Financial Markets 5
  6. 6. … Even the Financial Markets • Carriers look more & more like utilities • Valuation (P/E Multiple) will drop accordingly 6
  7. 7. Mexican Standoff Service Provider Advertiser Carrier 7
  8. 8. But it is a Symbiotic Dependency • Increased User Experience, increased Income • Great User Experience requires great network • Service Providers need to incentivize Carriers to help maximizing User Engagement 8
  9. 9. How to Share? Service Provider ??? Advertiser Carrier 9
  10. 10. How to Share – Shapley Values? • Model as a cooperative game which derives a distribution among the players of the total surplus generated by their coalition. • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shapley_value • Ma, et al, Internet Economics: The use of Shapley value for ISP settlement, CoNeXT ‘07 10
  11. 11. More pragmatic – Let’s look at Cost • What is the REAL cost of delivering a Movie? • Infrastructure (CapEx) & Operation (OpEx) • Dominated by Capex • Capex driven by PEAK demand • Leads to Congestion Pricing • Cost varies greatly based on congestion – Orders of Magnitude! • Same for service providers (servers, connectivity) 11
  12. 12. More pragmatic – Let’s look at Cost Real delivery cost of a Bit can vary by Orders of Magnitude! 12
  13. 13. Lower the Peaks, Filling the Valleys Timeshifting 13
  14. 14. Lower the Peaks, Filling the Valleys Timeshifting But Data Services cannot do that! 14
  15. 15. What is the traffic mix? Web Voice M2M Live Games 15
  16. 16. Anything special about Video? “Created” Consumed t Hours – days - months 16
  17. 17. FedEx – Packet delivery?
  18. 18. FedEx – Logistics Company!
  19. 19. FedEx – Logistics Company! The ideal place for zero-latency delivery
  20. 20. Content Logistics 20
  21. 21. Content Logistics – Control Peaks 21
  22. 22. Lowering Cost by Increasing Traffic! 22
  23. 23. Incoming Media 23
  24. 24. The Phone IS part of the network! • • • • • • Lots of storage Lots of processing Big screen Lots of sensors ONE, very loyal user The FIRST screen 24
  25. 25. Incoming Media • • • • Smart on-device content pre-positioning Create great mobile video experiences Increase engagement and satisfaction Save money doing this 25
  26. 26. Incoming’s Solution • Pre-fetching content on the mobile utilizing spare network capacity when available. • Decision what and when to pre-fetch is based on our ability to learn (and predict): • • • • user behavior user’s social network behavior mobile’s context and network environment operator’s preferences 26
  27. 27. Incoming’s Architecture 27
  28. 28. Incoming TV App • Proves value proposition of Smart Caching to user • Over 1.3M installs • 80% cache-hit ratio • Top 20% users watching 10 to 20+ mins per day • Zero mobile data cost • Instant start, zero stalling, zero buffering, HD video 28
  29. 29. What should Carriers do? 29
  30. 30. Content Logistics Service • New content-centric network API • This is a bit different to CCN proposals • Smart distributed storage • This includes mobile device (terminals) • Opportunistic pre-positioning of content • Less-than-best-effort traffic class • Only forward when there is nothing else to 30
  31. 31. Content-centric network API • Declaring of intent • Probabilistic intent of future use • Declaring meta-data • Prediction algorithms rely on discovering correlations • Providing feedback • What was the final utility of retrieved content 31
  32. 32. Smart distributed storage • Storage before bottleneck • Using meta-data and past behavior to predict: • what to store • when to move between storage • Building on IEEE 2200 (HQME)? 32
  33. 33. New Traffic Class • Less-than-best-effort traffic class • Focus on keeping pipes full • • • • • Using IP Header DiffServ Code Points (DSCP)? Technology is there May require new Traffic Management insights Various large carriers are thinking about it Interest in exploiting LTE Broadcast 33
  34. 34. Conclusion • Carriers need to provide a different service • From “packet/bit delivery” to “content logistics” • Video is THE dominating traffic source • Need new technical approach & business model to tackle it • Move from ‘dumb pipes’ to ‘smart logistics’ 34
  35. 35. Faster Networks Faster to the Abyss? Maximilian Ott CTO, Incoming Media Sr. Principal Researcher, NICTA max@incoming-media.com

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