Re-integration: Don't fear "closed" systems

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IT goes through cycles of being integrated (mainframes, Apple) or modular (WinTel, Web 2.0). This presentation uses a handful of examples to show that we're entering an integrated phase.

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Re-integration: Don't fear "closed" systems

  1. 1. Re-integration:Don’t fear “closed” systems @cote(I work at Dell, but this is my own content/opinion.) DevOpsDays Mountain View – June 29th, 2012
  2. 2. “There’s nothing new in IT.” Modular Integrated The current state of the cycle determines how you architect, build, deliver, support, and sell applications.
  3. 3. Mainframes to PC explosion
  4. 4. WinTel to iPad(Illustrative – subject was actually using Linux.)
  5. 5. The Obvious One Client/mobile/tabletSource: “The rise and fall of personal computing,” Horace Dediu, Jan 2012
  6. 6. Finally, a successful Linux desktop Client/mobile/tablet ThinkPad + Ubuntu Apple + Apple August, 2006 Oct, 2010
  7. 7. The modular king goes integrated Client/mobile/tabletSource: https://twitter.com/JoeTierney/status/215678004809039872/
  8. 8. Integrated Servers Converged Infrastructure Dell vStart Cisco UCS HP Virtual/Cloud System IBM PureSystems “IT departments spend more than 75% of their time and resources on system deployment and management. The market is in need of new modular infrastructure platforms that are capable of supporting applications connected to a large number of users and devices.”Source: “Converged Infrastructure Survey 2011,” IDC, Dec 2011.
  9. 9. UCS sales are going crazy Converged Infrastructure Cisco UCS Sales ($M) $700 $600 $633 $500 $400 $300 $200 $239 $100 $0 2010 2011 (Context: 2010 server market was $53.7B, 2011 was $56.6B)Source: “Worldwide and Regional Server 2012–2016 Forecast,” IDC, May 2012
  10. 10. Use is “low,” but near doubling Converged InfrastructureSource: “Converged Infrastructure Survey 2011,” IDC, Dec 2011.
  11. 11. PaaS = + back office + ALM + delivery Platform as a ServiceSource: Dell Corporate Strategy, Nov 2011
  12. 12. PaaS apps have been growing Platform as a Service # of Apps as of Oct. 2011 600,000 For reference 200,000 220,000 150,000 4,500 iOS AppEngine Heroku Force.com CloudBeesSource: company websites
  13. 13. What’s $8B between friends? (Gratuitous analyst poking) PaaS Forecast Comparisons ($M) Platform as a Service $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 ($M) $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 451 $120.00 $267.00 $444.00 $709.00 $1,137.00 Gartner (Aug 11) $330.70 $512.40 $707.40 $927.30 $1,179.60 $1,463.80 $1,755.00 Gartner (June 11) $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,800 $2,000 $2,400.00 Forrester Private $31.34 $65.00 $134.34 $275.81 $558.60 $1,156.68 $2,280.03 $4,140.28 Forrester Public $49.52 $118.76 $308.02 $820.39 $2,081.09 $4,378.52 $7,391.30 $9,801.55 NOTE: Forrester is more inclusive of existing appdev/middleware TAM & SaaS take. Gartner drops forecasts between June 2011 and August 2011.Source: analyst cloud forecasts available in 2011
  14. 14. My friends suck(ed) Web 2.0 vs. FacebookSource: Way Back Machine, flickr.com in Feb 2005
  15. 15. Now I suckWeb 2.0 vs. Facebook
  16. 16. “Walled gardens,” sure Locked into technology stacks $$$$$$“One throat to choke” = One BIG check to write $$$$$$ Slow access to innovation
  17. 17. …built on open technologiesSource: http://redmonk.com/sogrady/2012/06/13/new-relic-stack-data/
  18. 18. …with open APIsSource: http://blog.programmableweb.com/2011/01/03/api-growth-doubles-in-2010-social-and-mobile-are-trends/
  19. 19. IT gets incrementally better Integrated Closed Modular Open Integrated Open-ish
  20. 20. Thanks! @cotehttp://www.DrunkAndRetired.com http://www.dell.com/sputnik

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