LUND example causal loop diagram


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An exemplar causal loop diagram as presented by Harald Sverdrup of the University of Lund at the CONVERGE project's kick-off meeting in Budapest, September 2009

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LUND example causal loop diagram

  1. 1. Convergence or divergenceonnorthernSweden?<br />A field case from Swedish Lappland thattook an unexpected turn<br />
  2. 2. The National environmental goals<br />No success: The implementationsoftheSwedishenvironmetal goals in theSwedishmountaindistrict is not goinganywhere at the moment<br />Highambitions: The environmental goals ofSwedenare 16, designed to address all major environmental problems here<br />Dispair: The EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyfeels it does not know what to do. Whydoesn’t it workwheneverybody just loves theenvironment?<br />
  3. 3. Somehistoryofthemountains<br />Thereareseveralpopulations in the area<br />Saami<br />Swedes<br />Finns<br />The differentpopulations have differentlifestyles and languages<br />Swedes and Finns areurbanized industrialists, Finnish is FinnoUgrian, Swedish is IndoEuropean<br />The Saamiarepartlynomads, largelyurbanized, Saami is a FinnoUgrianlanguage, separate from Finnish<br />
  4. 4. Pastabuseofpower<br />The governmentmistreated and discriminatedtheinlandpopulationincludingtheSaami during 1550-1970 and commitedseveral grave cases ofoppressioncrimesbasedondifferences in lifestyles<br />The governmentconfiscated 90,000 km2of land withforce 400/300/200/100 yearsago (from all, mostlyillegallythen) and kept it withforce in all theseyearsagainstthewillofsignificant parts ofthelocalpopulation<br />The abuse and thefollow-oneffects have lead to manyconflicts in the region<br />Unclarityconcerningownership and landuse rights create a vacuumthatallowsthestrongest to rule and divide.<br />
  5. 5. Theyare all equallymuchSwedes<br />The Caucasiansarrived 14,000 yearsago (5%)<br />The Swedesarrived 6,500 yearsago (85%)<br />The Saamiarrived 3,500 yearsago (0.6%)<br />The Finns arrived 600 yearsago (0.8%)<br />
  6. 6. What to do?<br />Findthe problem and define it<br />Findcauses and causalchainson to effects<br />Understand thedynamicsofthe system<br />Investigate scenarios<br />Reconstructthepast<br />Change inputs and conditions<br />Changethe system structures<br />Proposeways forward<br />
  7. 7. Get a dedicated team<br />Harald Sverdrup, Deniz Koca, Salim Belyazid from Chemical Engineering, Lund University<br />Peter Schlyter from PhysicalGeography, Stockholm University<br />HördurHaraldsson and PO Wickberg from NVV<br />32 stakeholders from themountain region<br />
  8. 8. Method<br />Definethe problem<br />Make system maps to understand what is goingon, how it works, how a lot ofstuffinteracts<br />Make sure the stakeholder understand it, by participating in theactualanalysis (Theyget a sneakcourse in systems analysis just by taking part in theprocess)<br />Pull consequencesout from the diagrams<br />Make recommendations to theEnvironmentalprotectionboard<br />
  9. 9. The plan<br />
  10. 10. Planen II<br />
  11. 11. Environmantal goals areonly a special case ofsustainability goals<br />
  12. 12. Manythings to connect<br />
  13. 13. Turism som fenomen<br />
  14. 14. Turism, scooter and natur<br />
  15. 15. Turism, Samiske näringer, fjellandskap<br />
  16. 16. Mountain farms<br />
  17. 17. What it used to be<br />
  18. 18. The etnicgroup and integration versus segregation<br />
  19. 19. AdditionalCLDs for<br />Forestry<br />Sami culture, identity and society<br />Effectsofwild predators on animal husbandry, turism, biodiversity and naturalconservation<br />Severalstepsof diagrams for governmentalpowerstructures, useofpower, legal system, managementof land resources, governanceissues, land ownership<br />
  20. 20. A discovery in thegroupof stakeholders<br />
  21. 21. Abuseofpower leads to<br />Corruption<br />Nepotism<br />Lobbyism<br />Bribery<br />Bending therules<br />Lethagy<br />Give a damn in it<br />Move to Stockholm<br />Selfsufficiency<br />Undergroundactivities, segregation and communitywitdrawal<br />Ignorepermits<br />Ignoreauthorities<br />Localabuseofpower<br /><ul><li>Lackofgovernmentallegitimacy
  22. 22. Institutionalinefficiency
  23. 23. Lower standard of living in thelong run</li></li></ul><li>The organization must change<br />
  24. 24. Wehadsomesurprises<br />Abuse and misuseofpower in the region has continued<br />Important land rights issues have beenleft in a stateofconfusion for a century, allowingcontinuedpowerabuse<br />The legitimacy and credibilityofcentralstateauthorities is questioned in the area<br />Naturvårdsverketslegitimacy is tainted by otheragencie’sabuseofpower<br />
  25. 25. So what ?<br />Environmental goals are not implementedbecauseofissuesoflegitimacy, credibility and lackoflocalparticipation<br />The definitionsareincomplete and have lowrelevance to fieldconditions<br />Environment is still seen as a veryimportnatissue by a majorityofthearea’spopulation<br />
  26. 26. Conclusions<br />Unresolvedsocialissuesofgovernancepreventimplementationoftheenvironmental goals and objectives<br />The socialissuesneeds to be resolved in order beforetheenvironmentalissuescan be addressed<br />Social trust, legitimacy and credibility is hard to earn and quick to loose<br />Without systems analysiswewould never have discoveredthe real problem oftheissue<br />
  27. 27. Trust I<br />
  28. 28. Trust II<br />
  29. 29. Trust III<br />
  30. 30. The viciouscircle<br />
  31. 31. Sustainability limits economy<br />
  32. 32. 3 bigchallenges<br />Climatechangewil make profoundphysicalchanges to the world cascadingintosociety<br />Urbanization and demographicchangePeoplegetting older, moving from land to city, from land useprofessions to urbanizedoccupations. <br />The race for energy and material resourcesThe present material use is outstrippingthesupplycapacitiesofthe world, quicklyexhaustingalmost all reserves within a fewcenturies. <br />
  33. 33. To goon<br />Introduction to systems analysis<br />Group modellingonthe case studies<br />Systems maps<br />Generatedynamicmodels<br />Createindicator-drivendiagnostic system model<br />