Jan 2010 Energy Talk For Website

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Talk given at ISI Directors' Offsite, describing the research agenda for the Center for Complex Energy Systems.

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Jan 2010 Energy Talk For Website

  1. 1. Applying ISI Capabilities to Energy Challenges<br />Gordon Roesler<br />ISI Directors’ Offsite<br />12-13 January 2010<br />
  2. 2. The Century of Scarcity<br />2<br />Food<br />Water<br />Environment Energy<br />
  3. 3. ISI’s Strengths Fit a Gap in Energy Research<br />“Supersystems”, system-of-systems<br />Physical models of very complex distribution system, i.e. “the grid” (smart or not)<br />Machine learning/artificial intelligence for improved real-time control<br />Communications network(s) interwoven with physical network<br />Fault-tolerant real-time computing<br />Decision support and system engineering<br />Data mining<br />Pre-deployment: complex decision space<br />Post-deployment: operator support, visualization, pattern recognition<br />3<br />
  4. 4. Grid reliability: a deep intellectual challenge<br />2003: Local conditions cascaded to blackout<br />50 million customers dropped<br />61.8 GW power tripped off<br />Economic cost $4-10B<br />General causes<br />Cascading line tripping by dynamic line loading <br />often leads to unsuccessful line restoration attempts<br /> Cascading equipment tripping by overexcitation<br />Loss of synchronism due to angle instability<br />Oscillatory instability causing self-exciting inter-area oscillations<br />Exceeding allowed frequency range (over and under frequency) due to imbalance in active power between generation and load<br />Voltage instability / collapse<br />4<br />
  5. 5. ISI Opportunities to Enhance Grid Reliability<br />2003 Outage Task Force selected recommendations<br />“prudent expenditures for…reliability (including investments in new technologies)”<br />“DoE should expand…research programs on reliability-related tools and technologies”<br />“Improve…training and certification”<br />“Better real-time tools for operators and reliability coordinators”<br />“Improve quality of system modeling data”<br />“Require use of time-synchronized data recorders”<br />“Clarify criteria for identification of operationally critical facilities”<br />“Develop corporate-level IT security governance and strategies”<br />“Improve IT forensic and diagnostic capabilities”<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Phasor measurement units: the holy grail?<br />40 PMUs installed as of 2005<br />SCE installing 70 more over next 18 months (goal: one at each substation)<br />Objective: perfect knowledge of phases  linear transform to determine loads and sources<br />Too few PMUs  under-determined problem<br />Algorithms for real-time control not developed<br />6<br />line<br />GPS<br />As of <br />2005<br />ISI’s capabilities in data mining, modeling, and artificial intelligence could advance PMU use for real-time control<br />
  7. 7. Human issues related to grid reliability<br />Operators were ineffective at all stages of 2003 blackout<br />Inadequate visibility into long-range state<br />Displays and indications confusing<br />Inadequate training and simulation<br />Increase in automation to date at grid control centers has increased operator overload<br />Need to distil information<br />Build machine learning into warning systems<br />50% of transmission & distribution workforce is eligible for retirement NOW<br />Knowledge capture<br />Training of new work force<br />Automated backups<br />7<br />
  8. 8. Opportunities in discussion with potential sponsors<br />Grid reliability<br />Utility discussions, may grow to regional alliance <br />Disaster planning and recovery<br />Possible partnership with CalTech (earthquake warning)<br />Possible role in contingency planning for wave demo site<br />Renewables<br />Congressional (wave energy)<br />Buoyant energy storage (with U. Hawaii, conceptual)<br />Analyze impact on grid stability<br />Workforce training, operator assistance<br />Utility discussions<br />8<br />
  9. 9. Formal proposals<br />Agent-based control of next-generation Naval ship electric plants<br />ONR Energy BAA<br />Teamed with West Virginia U.<br />Energy distribution for autonomous maritime surveillance<br />DARPA STO<br />Develops SPIDR in new domain<br />9<br />Missions<br />PM, SMEs<br />UUVs<br />Optimization<br />preferences<br />harvesting<br />N best feasible designs<br />Existing <br />Optimization<br />Engine<br />Storage, structure, etc.<br />Rules and <br />constraints<br />
  10. 10. USC University Park Campus Smart Grid Project<br />$120M project led by LADWP, with participation of:<br />USC Energy Institute: overall university lead; demand response; behavioral studies<br />ISI: cyber security; demand response; modeling; project coordination<br />UCLA: electric vehicle aspects<br />90 day preliminary planning phase commenced Jan. 1<br />10<br />

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