The Smart Glasses Market:
Towards 1 Billion Shipments
CEO, Augmented Reality.Org
Augmented World Expo
Inspire 1 Billion Active Users of Augmented reality by 2020
“By far the best report
I have seen in my 25
years in this industry”
- Steve Willey, CEO Innovega
The Smart Glass Startup Guy
The Software Developer
Who’s it for?
Build or buy?
The Electronics Giant
Will the Market Happen?
“There is no reason for any individual
to have a computer in his home”
– Ken Olsen, 1977
of Augmented Reality
“When your glasses-wearing
workmates, playmates or classmates
perform better than you –
can you afford not to wear?”
To The People
Augmented Reality Glasses
What are AR Glasses?
1. Look like regular glasses
2. Provide direct view of the world
3. Display graphics in context
(using cameras & sensors)
Meta Pro Lumus DK40
Epson BT200 Vuzix m100
Vuzix, Lumus, Opinvent, Laster,
Recon, Kopin, Innovega, ODG,
Electronics Giants in
Google, Epson, Microsoft, Intel, Sony
Electronics Giants on
Zebra (Moto), Toshiba, Nokia, Fujitsu
Canon, , Brother, Samsung, LG,
Lenovo, Apple, Baidu…
New Breed of
Meta, Atheer, Glassup, Mirama,
Skully, Fusar, Daqri, Seebright,
Caputer Seer, RideOn, Magic Leap
Smart Glasses 2015 - Progress and Mind Share
Penny c Wear
Major movement since previous 2014 report
Source :Ori Inbar - synthesized from Vendors and Google Trends
Buying Criteria Prioritized
1 Design, Form Factor
2 Size and Weight
3 Cost for Mass Production
4 Power Consumption, Battery Life
5 Content (Apps)
6 Field of View
7 Contrast and brightness
Eye Position, Prescription
13 Input Device(s)
Size and Weight
Field of View
Contrast and Brightness
Eye Position, Prescription Glasses
Cost for Mass Production
AR Glasses Competitive Landscape 2015
Bulk vs. Field of View
Field of View
0 20 40 60 10080 120
AR Glasses Products
Created and augmented by Ori Inbar based on chart from Innovega
Epson Moverio BT-200
• Curved Mirror
Breaking the 40º FOV Barrier
Dual Contact Lens-
2 Direct Retinal Projector
Brother, Fujitsu QDLaser,
EyeWay, Composyt Light
3 Transparent OLED LusoVu
4 Pinlight Displays Nvidia, UNC
Vibrating Optic Scanner
6 Laser Combiner Fukui
2014 2015 2016 20182017 2019-2023
Augmented Reality Glasses Adoption Phases - Forecast
Synthesized by Ori Inbar from multiple sources
First 10 AR Glasses shipped
1 Million Shipments
Initial winners emerge
10 Million Shipments
Market reaches critical mass
Major shakeup (acquisitions, mergers)
50-100 Million Shipments
AR Glasses displace Smartphones
Market owned by one “800 lb. Gorilla”*
and 1-2 challengers
>1 Billion Shipments
Key Adoption Drivers
• Style and Cost
• FOV is the new Mega Pixel race
• Platform leadership: SDK, Community, Content
• Cultural impact
• Enterprise will lead, consumers will follow
$1,000 $999 $999
$699 $667 $599 $599
$500 $499 $499
$399 $380 $349 $345
Source: Ori Inbar January 2015
Consumer and Enterprise Digital Eyewear
Bill Of Material Cost Comparison
Smart Glasses Vs. Smart Phones
Sources: Myanville, Teardown.com, HIS
AR Glasses Value Chain
Power, Audio, etc
WIFI, BLE, GPS
Retail & Commerce
Training & Maintenance
Education & Learning
Travel & Navigation
Healthcare & Recreation
Games & Entertainment
Urban & Architecture
Military & Government
Source: Ori Inbar
2014 2015 2016 20182017 2019-2023
Augmented Reality Glasses Will Soar
Synthesized by Ori Inbar from multiple sources
> 1 Billion
The Smart Glass Startup GuyThe Software Developer
12 months to
build, or buy
The Electronics GiantThe Investor
Get it at:
Special combo promo
with AR.org Membership
Hi everybody. Thank you all for joining us this morning! It’s awesome to open the AR track at the wearable Tech Show here in brilliant London. Not too shabby.
Here’s my story: My name is Ori Inbar and 8 Years ago I became an addict. I became addicted to Augmented Reality. I started a blog about AR, I founded a startup called Ogmento (now Flyby) which was awesome, and 2 years ago I left to dedicate my time to AugmentedReality.Org - a non profit organization with a mission to advance AR to advance humanity.
We do it by educating and connecting people and by mentoring AR startups. we set up a goal of 1 billion AR users by the end of the decade.
But to reach that goal, we needed a baseline, and when we looked for market reports, frankly we were disappointed –
they were all over the place and lacked deep understanding of our market.
So I said, heck – let’s create one.
Today, I am proud to share with you our key findings from our report:
Smart Glasses Market 2015: towards 1 billion shipments. In 5 words I can summarize it as: the future will be awesome!
[click] I think you’ll appreciate it as a different kind of report, written by an industry insider. How did we write it?
We constantly analyze all market reports that we can find, we interview industry experts, we try all products, we live and breath AR every day.
In this report we talk about the players, the competitive landscape, market adoption drivers, and make some recommendations along the way…
You could look at it as a manifesto to Rally the troops and inject a sense of urgency. Who are the troops we are trying to rally?
4 key audiences: [click]
1) The Investor – yes you, who saw so many pitches of AR companies and always asked them to come back when they have more traction.
2) The Electronics Giant – afraid to miss the next big thing. Can you afford to remain on the fence?
3) The Smart glass startup guy – how far should I take the product before I ship?
4) The Software guy And the entire ecosystem – who’s asking: where’s the big opportunity? What platform to build for? Who to partner with?
To get your juices flowing, let’s look at the end game, which may seem shocking at first – viewer discretion advised
At some point in the future - there will be an inflection point: More smart glasses will be sold than smartphones.
Chris Anderson coined the term and describes it as: a point in time when a new technology outsells an older technology (like when DVDs outsold VHS players)
For smart glasses, that’s a tall order – 1.2B smartphones shipped in 2014 and it’s expected to keep growing 30% a year.
We estimate the inflection point will happen sometime between 2020 and 2023. Think of it as the end of a 10 year cycle that started when smartglasses were first introduced to the mass market (2013 is when Google Glass first shipped).
But people still ask: will the market happen? Analysts and experts are in consensus - it’s inevitable.
But I want to hear from you: do you believe it will ever happen? by show of hands who’s in favor of :
[click] a) it’s Inevitable?
[click] b) Who’s for B? for those who have no idea what it means: It’s just like inevitable, but more relentless…
[click] c) Any Ken Olsons in the house. In 1977 Ken Olson infamously said: There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home. Any Ken Olsons here today?
But why is it really inevitable?
it’s in our bones, the need to interact with the real world.
And it rhymes too. I can see a rap song here: “the inevitability of augmented reality”…may be not…
But above all Augmented Reality glasses will happen because:
When your glass-wearing workmates, playmates or classmates perform better than you – can you afford not to wear?
(do you like it? It’s one of my favorite quotes in the report…I see it in a TV commercial one day)
Smart glasses make people better - at anything they do, and they LOVE it!
So I say:
Super powers to the people! say it with me: Super powers to the people! [Click to smart glasses]
I am sure by this time, many of you are asking – yeah but how do you define The MARKET?
Simply put: Augmented Reality glasses.
What are AR glasses?
It’s similar to Azuma’s definition of AR:
1. They Look like regular glasses, maybe slightly bigger, and intended for enterprises and consumers (we are not including HMDs, or devices for the military and special use)
2. They Provide direct view of the world (and ideally have optical see through, not video see through.)
3. They use cameras & sensors, to display virtual graphics in context of where you are and what you do.
When you look at all electronic eyewear in the market [click]
There are AR Glasses and…virtual reality HMDs.
AR Glasses are basically smart glasses [click], although today this category may also include other specialized glasses with “smarts” but with no display [click] like: life blogging, gaze tracking, and for visually impaired.
We believe eventually smart glasses will prevail and most of this circle will turn green.
Why? It’s more natural, it requires less energy, and it promotes BEING In THE MOMENT.
So now that we have defined the market – let’s meet our wonderful contestants!
Look at it? Ain’t it beautiful?
The amazing fact is that for the first time, over 10 new AR glasses are shipping (or will ship this year.)
Here’s how we segment them into groups:
1) [click] Pioneering startups –they started it all. (way before Glass) many where hoping to score OEM deals – but recently decided to ship their own versions and helped accelerate the market.
2) [click] Giants in the game – visionaries building on their strengths. investing a whole lot in awareness and developer ecosystem.
3) [click] Giants on the fence – afraid to miss the next computing wave, they’re investigating every startup in the space, filing patents, showing prototypes - but no full commitment yet. We expect them to jump in once they see more movement.
4) [click] New breed of startups born on kickstarter, armed with ambition to combine off the shelf components with clever design, branding and platform strategy – to create the giants of the next computing wave. [pause] How far along are all these guys?
We plotted their progress on the product life cycle from announcement to shipping. On the vertical axis it shows how much mindshare they have created. [click]
the red line is the most important milestone: shipping,
But commitment to shipping (the green line - pre orders or limited quantity) – is where the game is changing.
[click] cool heh?
To get a sense of the speed of change in this market. Since we published the first iteration of this chart 3 months ago – [click] –
The arrows indicate new products or companies that have moved a stage in their product life cycle. See the comparison with our 2014 chart. (back and forth).
Now this chart doesn’t comment on quality or completeness. How will these products compete?
Here are the buying criteria, prioritized, or what features will AR glasses compete on.
Starting with Consumers: the first 5 are no brainer –every life style gadget competes on these.
From our survey, the 2 most critical technical challenges that drive adoption are: [click] size & weight (how bulky is it?) and FOV.
But this year, the big appeal for smart glasses is in the enterprise: smart glasses are the only technology that feeds workers with contextual information in their field of view while keeping their hands free to perform a certain task.
[click] And For enterprises the prioritization is a little different –e.g. function is way more important than form and style (remember blackberry).
Nevertheless, size and weight do matter - though in a different way – it mustn’t interfere with the workers task at hand.
And a wide FOV is also very critical for the professional user to be able to complete a task. [click]
So what currently defines the competitive landscape is the tradeoff between size and FOV.
Physics dictate that to achieve a larger FOV you need a larger device (which btw also gets more expensive)
To show how it plays out, we borrowed this chart from innovega
and plotted products in the market [click]
Current products in the market typically use one of 2 technologies: wave guides or curved mirrors.
To achieve over 40 degrees it becomes too big for enterprises and consumers – at that size it’s only used for military.
Is there anything behind the horizon?
Check out innovega here in the corner – with a prototype for a radical new approach. And there is more. [click]
There is a ton of innovation here: but are All still in concept phase and could take a couple of years before they hit the market.
1) Dual contact Lens-Glasses
2) DRP reviving the old microvision attempt to project lasers directly into our eyes.
3) LusoVu demonstrated at AWE an early concept for transparent OLED that covers the entire field of view
4) UNC and Nvidia recenlty published a paper on near eye display with pinholes that each creates an image
5) We don’t know much about Magic leap except that their patent mentions Dynamic lightfield and vibrating optic scanner.
6) And a few months ago Fukui announced a laser combiner for eyewear, much smaller and more efficient..
And now to the main chart of the day: adoption.
It took smartphones 10 years to go from 0 to 1 billion. If History teaches us anything is that adoption rates of new computing platforms only accelerate over time.
After much input from industry experts, we decided to present the more conservative view of the growth , And here are the results.
There is a typical phase in tech adoption when the market reaches the boiling point. The Big Sake Up. This will happen by the end of 2016
No matter if you are an investor, a giant, or a startups – you’ll need to look good by then or you’ll be out.
For Giants still contemplating whether to build or buy, By that point it’ll be too late – and it will drive acquisitions.
Some startups will merge and some will disappear.
At this time, most sales are still in enterprise, but investors finally can feel the “traction” and jump in with major investments – and things move fast into the consumer market.
The Shake up doesn’t happen overnight. In fact, the process might have already started (Intel invested and acquired, and we expect over a $billion investments this year)
That would be a good time for Apple to surprise with a killer product.
What are the adoption drivers that will move this chart?
I guess you will have to read the report to find out...
There is one adoption driver I’d like to touch upon: pricing
When you look at the products in the market - the Median price turns out to be just below $600.
The critical consumer price for a gadget is typically defined as below $500, so it’s pretty close.
And what’s even more interesting is that it’s Similar to the smartphones price range.
But what’s the cost for actually building these devices? What’s the margin we can expect?
To analyze the cost of the bill of material - we looked at google Glasses as a proxy: the average cost for putting together the glasses is just $155.
That’s not a bad margin for a $500 gadget.
Moore law will keep shrinking the cost and increasing the performance – with the exception of the optics which obey the laws of physics.
The good news – compared with smartphones [click] – the whole price for manufacturing glasses is cheaper, even the display itself is cheaper (and requires less energy)
so it’s another natural reason for the inevitable transition from smartphones to smart glasses!
Before we summarize, here’s a general view of the ecosystem.
★ Compute platform - CPU, GPU, Memory, ASIC, etc (e.g. Qualcomm, Intel, Nvidia, TI, ARM)
★ Design services - which is becoming critical with wearables - the most personal gadgets ever
★ Connectivity and geolocation - Cellular, Wifi, Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE), GPS, NFC
★ Input devices (OEM or after market) - Microphones, touch pads, gesture devices (e.g. Leap Motion), gaze trackers (Tobii), wrist watches and bands, 3D remotes (sixsense), smart rings (Muv), arm bands (Myo), EEG (Neurosky, Interaxon)
★ Near eye displays - including OLEDs, LCDs, micro projectors, wave guides, curved mirrors, etc
(e.g. eMagin, Himax, Microvision, LemOptix, Hamamatsu, ST Micro, SBG Labs, Sensics, etc)
★ Sensors - such as inertial measuring units (accelerometers, gyro), compass, humidity, altimeters, haptics
(e.g. Invensense, Freescale, Bosch, ST Micro, Plantronics, Immersion Corp.)
★ Cameras and scanners - RGB, stereoscopic, depth cameras (MV4D, Softkinetic), camera arrays (Pelican), laser-based scanner, scanning mirrors (e.g. Mirrocle, Sercalo)
★ Other - Power management, batteries, audio, non electric, supporting material, packaging, assembly and testing for mass production
- Software/tools layer
- Applications/services Layer
- The users
AR Glasses will soar. The race for 1 Billion is on. [click]
It will get ugly by 2016 – so be sure to look good by then.
Everyone in the ecosystem should walk away with a strong sense of urgency:
1) The Investor guy: Show your risk taking guts and make a move now, before the crowds jump in. That’s vision.
2) Consumer Electronics manufacturers: If you are not in the game today…it might be too late for building so you better snatch a startup!
3) Smart Glasses Startups: Of course focus on a great product, but don’t forget: Platforms always win.
4) Software Companies: Start working on the content! It’s totally different than anything you have done before so you better get there first.
5)…The entire ecosystem: The window of opportunity is open for the next 10 months. So jump in – head first!
[Pause] These were the highlights. To really dig into it and understand the drivers, you should definitely take a look at:
The report. 37 pages of dense information and insights.
The report goes for $799 (about 500 pounds)
But today, just for you, We offer a special discount for just [click] 99 pounds or ($150)
You can get it in our booth, Or go online to Augmentedreality.Org.
You can already see many of these vendors here today.
And there will be more progress and more excitement by next June at:
Augmented world expo, the world’s largest event dedicated to Augmented Reality. We expect 3000 attendees, and every major player will be there!
If you wish to exhibit, speak, or attend – talk to me!
Our booth is right outside this room.