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Q4 2012 Columbus Market Trends Office

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Q4 2012 Columbus Market Trends Office

  1. 1. Office Trends ReportGreater Columbus Abound, Amidst RecoveryColumbus region overviewThe Columbus office market gained 93,462 square feet of positive absorption in the fourth quarter. This is thethird quarter in a row of positive absorption, as five of the past six quarters have resulted in positive gains forthe region. Construction continues to pick up, as building has begun at Bob Evans 100,000 square footheadquarters at 8111 Smith’s Mill Road in New Albany, and the 188,000 square foot Columbia Gas of Ohiobuilding at 10 West Nationwide Boulevard in the Arena District. The 106,500 square foot Water’s Edge II at7995 Walton Parkway in New Albany was recently completed, where Sedgwick leased 36,000 square feet ofspace. The 50,545 square foot phase one of The New Albany Center of Technology at 7525 West Campus Roadwas completed and will be fully occupied by iQor as they signed the largest lease of the quarter.Forecasts and Reflections• While 2012 will be distinguished by many as the most monumental in more than five years since the financialmeltdown, much of the market’s success is accredited to portfolio sale offerings and the trading of assets dueto attractive pricing, prime financing and lending opportunities.• Investment sales continue to be a big storyline going into 2013, as the fourth quarter showed no signs of aslowdown. Amcor Holdings acquistion of AEW Capital’s 10-building, 780,000-square-foot portfolio of officebuildings that stretch along the I-270 corridor from Dublin’s Metro Center business park to the CorporateExchange office park in northeast Columbus was the highlight of the quarter. Blackstone unloaded aninvestment holding at 4650 Lakehurst Court in Dublin, as Wells Core Income REIT purchased the 164,600square foot Class A building for $25.3 million ($153 per square foot). The Central Business District was activeas the 113,309 square foot, Class A Bicentennial Plaza at 250 Civic Center Drive was purchased by MarconiPartners for just $6.1 million ($53 per square foot).• The largest new lease transactions of 2012 were JP Morgan Chase leasing 72,588 square feet at 1000 PolarisParkway; Alliance Data leasing 68,981 square feet at 4400 Easton Commons; and iQor leasing 50,545 squarefeet at 7525 West Campus Road.Asking Rates andAVailabilitiesRental rates haveincreased over thecourse of 2012, as ClassA rates increased from$18.61 to $18.90; whileClass B rates rose from$15.47 to $15.93.Operating expenseshave seen an averageincrease of $.33 cents in2012 due to inflationarypressures and tax hikes.The vacancy rate fellfrom 11.4 percent to 11.3percent in the indicatorsRental RatesQ42012Q12013*VacancyNet absorptionconstructionRental Rates —*Projected trend for next quarterQ4 2012 | Office$14.00$15.00$16.00$17.00$18.00$19.00$20.00$21.003Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q102Q103Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q12Class A Rental Rates Class B0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0%(400,000)(300,000)(200,000)(100,000)0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,0003Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q091Q102Q103Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q12Completions Absorption Vacancy RateAbsorption, Completions, and Vacancy Rates
  2. 2. Employment dataThe preliminary unemployment rate for Columbus inDecember fell to 5.5 percent from 5.9 percent inSeptember according to the Bureau of LaborStatistics. Year-to-date unemployment has dipped 25percent, or 1800 basis points from the 7.3 percentunemployment levels recorded at the beginning of theyear. Unemployment is at its all time low sinceJanuary of 2010, when we saw unemployment levelsnearly reach 10 percent. The unemployment rate isdetermined by the ratio of the number of those whohave looked for work in the last four weeks comparedto the total number of workers including thosesearching for employment.The sectors significant in office leasing haveremained steady or up in the preliminary Decembernumbers. The Information sector has remained flatthroughout most of the year. Employment forFinancial Activities closed the year stronger than ayear ago (2011), with nearly 3 percent growth, andover 2,700 jobs created in the sector. Professionaland Business Services have been stronger this yearthan last, but that growth has waned this quarter. Thesector gained an impressive 5,500 jobs throughSeptember (3 percent growth), but has lost 2,200 ofthose jobs in recent months. Education and HealthServices is really beginning to gain momentum andhas added 2,500 jobs this quarter, (over 10,000 jobsfor the year), and is up 9.2 percent year over year.Market ActivityThe Columbus office market continued recovering inmost submarkets across the region in 2012. TheCentral Business District (CBD) office fundamentalstightened materially over 2012 with vacancy ratesdropping from 11 percent to 10.8 percent, while thesuburban office sector fundamentals tightened evenmore, with vacancy rates dropping from 12.7 percentto 11.6 percent. Colliers International tracks demandfor office space by tracking tenants in the market. Theaverage number of tenants in the market hasdecreased slightly in fourth quarter 2012 from thethird quarter 2012, 81 to 72. However, there aremore tenants seeking large spaces than last quarter;14 tenants are looking for more than 25,000 squarefeet, and there are 23 tenants looking for 10,000 upto 25,000 square feet of space.Market Activity Volume is the sum of the absolutevalue of each absorption change in the market, and ittells us how much space was in transition in thequarter. The market outlook remains optimistic asoffice leasing activity posted an additional 703,046square feet, which is higher than it has been in priorfourth quarters when only 448,696 square feet onaverage were in transition. Over 3,553,530 squarefeet of space was in transition in 2012, down fromthe 4 million square feet recorded in 2011.The Columbus office market consistsof 15 suburban submarkets plus theCentral Business District submarket. TheColumbus region features a total of 63million square feet, 43.7 million of whichis suburban. Colliers International officedataset includes all 10,000 square foot,Class A, B, and C buildings, not ownedand fully leased by the government.Market Activitysales activityProperty Address sales date sale price Size sf Buyer Seller Price / Sf Type Submarket10 Building Portfolio 11/6/2012 $25,100,000 780,000 Amcor Holdings Inc. AEW Capital $32 B Northeast4650 Lakehurst Court 12/6/2012 $25,300,000 164,600 Wells Core Income Reit Blackstone Group $153 A Dublin4485 Northland Ridge Boulevard 12/3/2012 $26,650,000 263,068 Taurus Investment Holdings Realty Finance Partners $101 B North Central445 Hutchinson Avenue 12/7/2012 $20,550,000 250,169 445 Hutchinson LLP Investors Group Blackstone Group $82 A Worthington250 Civic Center Drive 11/27/2012 $6,100,000 113,309 Marconi Partners LLC Genworth Financial $53 A CBD3401 Morse Crossing 12/12/2012 $8,928,000 85,094 JP Morgan Chase Bank Rb 3401 Morse LLC $106 B Easton77-83 Outerbelt Street 10/24/2012 $695,000 12,200 Sama Management Group LLC 77-83 Outerbelt Street LLC $56.96 B Gahanna/Airport11299 Stonecreek Drive 11/5/2012 $1,100,000 11,000 Stonecreek Professional Bldg. II LLC Holzer Wollam-Pickerington $83 B SoutheastPowell PolarisWorthingtonWestervilleNewAlbanyLickingCountyFairfieldCountyMadisonCountyUnion CountyDelawareCountyPickaway CountyDublinBethelEastonEastGahanna/AirportCBDHilliardSouthwestSoutheastArlington/GrandviewNorthCentralLease activityProperty Address Sales Date Lease Sf tenant Asking price (NNN) Type Submarket7525 West Campus Road 12/3/2012 50,545 iQor $11.95 A New Albany2 Miranova Place 11/13/2012 42,606 Isaac Wiles Law Offices $13.50 A CBD7795 Walton Parkway 12/14/2012 36,000 Sedgwick $14.95 A New Albany4449 Easton Way 11/23/2012 18,314 Clark Schaefer $13.90 A Easton565 S Metro Place 11/16/2012 16,830 Hylant Group $11.00 A Dublin8800 Lyra Drive 10/24/2012 15,680 Chipotle Accounting $13.50 A Polaris425 N Metro Place 10/24/2012 15,442 Navidea Biopharmaceuticals $10.95 B Dublin630 Morrison Road 11/17/2012 10,417 Aerotek $10.95 A Gahanna8800 Lyra Drive 10/9/2012 10,271 Camp Dresser & McKee $13.50 A Polaris495 S Metro Place 10/31/2012 9,496 Pepper Construction $10.95 A Dublinp. 2 | Colliers Internationalresearch & forecast report | Q4 2012 | Office | Greater Columbus Region
  3. 3. VacancyTwo main factors are constraining office demand,according to a report from Property and Portfolio, ateam of expert commercial real estate forecasters andmarket financial analysts. First, the average amount ofoffice space leased by tenants has shrunk 21 percentover the last 10 years in a fundamental shift in the waycompanies use office space due to a variety of factors,and secondly tenants are still expanding into leasedbut under-utilized space. Although the Columbus officevacancy rate decreased to 11.4 percent in the thirdquarter, a full percentage point from a year ago, PPRcontinues to expect the vacancy rate to fall another1.8% nationwide through 2016 as supply diminishes andthe economy rebounds, by far the steepest drop amongcommercial property types.update Market Comparisonsoffice marketNet Absorption Construction Asking Rental RatesSubmarket Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions Class A ($) Class B ($)CBD 19,597,350 2,094,578 10.8% 36,469 10,016 280,000 239,000 $18.52 $16.62Arlington/Grandview 4,752,155 439,984 9.3% 34,754 123,254 $22.88 $15.98Dublin 9,501,878 1,219,043 12.8% 1,982 27,422 $19.14 $15.86East 3,691,158 529,733 14.4% (7,250) 17,995 $15.73 $12.92Easton 2,685,332 226,457 8.4% 20,814 (59,823) $19.85 $18.00Gahanna/Airport 1,262,031 74,034 5.9% 42,148 75,280 $17.17 $15.08Hilliard 2,480,456 442,756 17.8% 8,998 46,927 11,000 $19.70 $16.30New Albany 1,935,789 167,084 8.6% 22,043 51,544 100,000 156,500 $18.43North Central 1,255,636 93,309 7.4% (9,491) (26,006) $15.00Polaris 4,419,869 307,593 7.0% (32,643) (76,067) $19.45 $19.15powell 273,719 30,356 11.1% 1,597 20,413 $16.57Southeast 402,548 62,290 15.5% - (11,537)Southwest 236,158 17,144 7.3% - 20,627 $16.95WESTERVILLE 4,489,479 592,947 13.2% 16,477 50,542 $19.53 $15.57WORTHINGTON 6,296,402 846,215 13.4% (42,436) 79,622 $18.49 $14.67SUBURBAN TOTAL 43,682,610 5,048,945 11.6% 56,993 340,193 111,000 156,500 $19.05 $15.65TOTAL 63,192,662 7,143,523 11.3% 93,462 350,209 391,000 395,500 $18.90 $15.93Net Absorption Construction Asking Rental RatesProperty type Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions By Product TypeClass A 26,013,781 2,849,353 11.0% 54,449 (20,612) 388,000 395,500 $18.90Class B 23,207,076 2,902,936 12.5% 33,676 230,926 11,000 - $15.93Class C 13,881,805 1,391,234 10.0% 5,337 139,895 - $13.50Totals 63,192,662 7,143,523 11.3% 93,462 350,209 391,000 395,500 $16.99quarterly comparison and totalsNet Absorption Construction Asking Rental RatesQuarter, year Total SF Vacant SF Vacancy % Current Quarter Year-to-date Current Completions By Product TypeQ3, 2012 63,051,662 7,188,414 11.4 246,232 174,114 457,000 - $19.16 $15.60Q2, 2012 63,051,662 7,566,097 12.0 32,745 8,037 301,000 - $19.05 $15.67Q1, 2012 63,040,960 7,598,842 12.1 (22,230) (22,230) 301,000 140,000 $18.79 $15.57Q4, 2011 63,040,314 7,632,767 12.1 252,351 732,831 190,000 - $18.61 $15.47Q3, 2011 63,040,314 7,885,118 12.5 284,581 480,480 190,000 - $18.58 $15.41research & forecast report | Q4 2012 | Office | Greater Columbus RegionColliers International | p. 3
  4. 4. Central Business DistrictThe CBD incurred 36,469 square feet of positiveabsorption. The 60,543 square feet of space that wasleased at Two Miranova Place this quarter was enoughto prevent a downturn this quarter. Isaac Wiles LawOffices leased 42,606 square feet, and Pizzuti addedanother 11,367 square feet. Title First moved out of25,870 square feet at 555 S. Front Street after thebuilding fell into receivership.Nationwide Mutual Insurance Co., downtown Columbus’largest private employer with 8,200 workers, nowoccupies six buildings with a combined 2.6 millionsquare feet in and around the Arena District after itsrecent completion of its 188,000 square foot building at10 West Nationwide Boulevard. The Federal Bureau ofInvestigation has also finished its 51,000 square footbuilding at 425 West Nationwide Boulevard nearHuntington Park in the Arena District. The FBI occupies44,926 square feet, but there is still 6,844 square feetstill available. The completion of these two projectscaps what’s been a tremendous year for the revitalizeddistrict.West MarketThe west submarkets are Arlington/Grandview andHilliard. The Arlington/Grandview submarket postedanother strong quarter of positive absorption as over34,754 square feet of positive absorption took place.Numerous leases were signed at 2323 West FifthAvenue including a significant 14,629 square foot leasesigned by Manley Deas Kochalski.North Columbus MarketThe North submarkets are Dublin, Powell, Polaris,North Central, Worthington and Westerville. The fourthquarter storyline for the North submarket is theimmense amount of investment sales to trade. (SeeSales Activity on Page 2)Dublin saw insignificant absorption of 1,982 square feetwhich can be attributed to a number of significantrenewals that were signed, dropping the vacancy ratefrom the previous quarter by 300 basis points. HylantGroup leased 16,830 square feet at 565 South MetroPlace, Navidea Biopharmaceuticals leased 15,442square feet at 425 North Metro Place, and PepperConstruction leased 9,496 square feet at 495 SouthMetro Place.Powell and North Central saw slight absorption changesand limited movement on the leasing side as most ofthe transition came through an investment sale at 4485Northland Ridge Boulevard. Realty Finance Partnerssold its 263,068 square foot building Taurus InvestmentHoldings for $26.7 million ($101 per square foot).Vacancy rates remain stable at 11.1 percent, after a highof 22 percent in the second quarter.Polaris and Westerville saw sizable changes from theprevious quarter as two notable leases transpired at8800 Lyra Drive. Chipotle Accounting leased 15,680square feet, and Camp Dresser & McKee leased 10,271square feet. American Family Insurance downsizedout of its previous 57,697 square feet of space at 550Polaris Parkway, causing 32,643 square feet ofnegative absorption for the quarter. Westerville wasable to manage 16,477 square feet of positive absorptiondespite multiple smaller vacancies.Worthington had 42,436 square feet of negativeabsorption after Molina Healthcare of Ohio moved outof Northwoods II at 8101 High Street. MolinaHealthcare of Ohio will expand into the 160,000 squarefoot building it purchased at 3000 Corporate Exchangefor $8.5 million. Blackstone continued to trim itsinvestment holdings as it sold its 250,169 square foot,Class A office building located at 445 HutchinsonAvenue for $20.5 million.East MarketThe east submarkets are the East side, Easton,Gahanna/Airport and New Albany. These submarketshave historically been among the most active, and havecontinued that trend throughout most of 2012.Absorption in Easton was positive as 20,814 squarefeet of space traded. Clark Schaefer signed a 18,314square foot lease at Easton Way One located at 4449Easton Way. JP Morgan purchased a 85,094 squarefoot office building that they previously had fully leasedlocated at 3401 Morse Crossing for $8.9 million ($106per square foot). Gahanna posted strong figures asAerotek leased 10,417 square feet at 630 MorrisonRoad. As mentioned earlier, New Albany remains thefocal point for new construction, as over 156,500square feet of projects are in progress, and another twohundred thousand are in the pipeline for future quarters.New Albany recorded 22,043 of positive absorption, inlarge part due to Sedgwick leasing 36,000 square feetat Water’s Edge II.Landlord/tenantThe types of tenants seen most frequently in the markethave been general medical, insurance, higher education,law firms after mergers, and technology users. Tenantsstill lack the urgency to close deals, due to short termefficiency concerns, unwillingness to sign long termleases, and speculation of lower net rental rates inconjunction with higher opertaing expenses that wehave seen as of late. Overall costs to make a move, andto build out space are more expensive than tenants arewilling to invest. Tenants are uncertain on the long termstability of the economy. The reooccuring issue facinglandlords is creating a steady cashflow, especially forlandlords who want to renegotiate their debt, and tooffer significant concessions.United States:Greater Columbus RegionRichard B. Schuen SIOR CCIMCEO | Principal | ColumbusTwo Miranova PlaceSuite 900Columbus, Ohio 43215tel +1 614 410 5612Leslie HobbsDirector of Marketing | OhioTwo Miranova PlaceSuite 900Columbus, Ohio 43215tel +1 614 410 5640Jonathan SchuenResearch AnalystTwo Miranova PlaceSuite 900Columbus, Ohio 43215tel +1 614 437 4495522 offices in62 countries on6 continentsUnited States: 147Canada: 37Latin America: 19Asia Pacific: 201EMEA: 118• $1.8 billion in annual revenue• 1.25 billion square feet undermanagement• Over 12,300 professionalsThis document/email has been prepared by ColliersInternational for advertising purposes. ColliersInternational statistics and data are audited annually andmay result in revisions to previously reported quarterlyand final year-end figures. Sources include ColumbusDispatch, Business First, Xceligent, CoStar, Chain StoreAge, Wall Street Journal, Bureau of Labor Statistics,Bureau of Economic Analysis, Property and Portfolio,Gallup and the Cleveland Federal success.research & forecast report | Q4 2012 | Office | Greater Columbus Region