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Agile estimations and
Planning
Cornel FATULESCU
agile coach
Did It Ever Happen to You?
• Who the ... made this estimation?
• Sorry it will take me than … hours!
• I hope we’ll delive...
Usual solution
3
Classical IT services supplier scenario
4
Sales Start-up
Ongoing
project
Some
experts
Some members
of newly created
team
T...
How to estimate features ?
• What does the team need for each feature in
order to increment it?
• How features become part...
Feature metamorphosis flow!
6
Suggestion Assumed Estimated Ready In Progress
Pre-
Production
Production
Done
Feature metamorphosis flow!
7
Suggestion Assumed Estimated Ready In Progress
Pre-
Production
Production
Done
? ? ? ?
Relea...
Sample of Definition of Ready for a feature
8
Story clarified
Tasks identified
Story estimated
Acceptance criteria
Clear d...
Sample of Definition of Done for a feature
9
Design complete
Development complete
Code commented
Static code quality analy...
Why relative estimations?
• Product Owner: How long it will take to
deliver feature A?
• 1st team member : 3 Days
• 2nd te...
Why relative estimations?
• Product Owner: How long it will take
Compared to feature B we’ve done the last
time?
• 1st tea...
Measure the size, calculate the time
12
Velocity =
𝛥𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒
𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 =
𝛥𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒
𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
Measure the size, calculate the time
13
Velocity =
𝛥𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒
𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 =
𝛥𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒
𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
http://www.mountaingoatsoftw...
It’s effort, not complexity
14
“In a class a few years back, I was given a wonderful
example of this. Suppose a team consi...
Visualize the estimations
15
To
estimate
Feature 2
Feature 5
Feature 6
Feature 7
Feature 8
Feature 9
Feature 11
1 SP
Featu...
How to plan?
16
Our
concern?
Release
Planning
Process
Sprint
DoR, DoD
Release
DoR, DoD
What is release planning?
17
• It is a process not an event!
Release Planning
at project
start-up
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint...
Sample of Definition of Ready for a sprint
18
Sprint goal
The Sprint Backlog is prioritized
No hidden work
Calculated capa...
Sample of Definition of Done for a sprint
19
Release Build
Functional testing done
Regression testing done
Acceptance test...
Sprint Context
20
Team size
Focus factor
Sprint size
Calendar days
Velocity
6 People
70%
2 weeks
10 Days
16 SPs
Estimate 1 SP
21
• Estimate in hours several features
– Ex: Feature 1
• Estimated initially at 3 SPs
• Estimated in man da...
Calculate Sprints Velocity
22
Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3
Person days in sprint = calendar days *
team size
60 60 60
Ideal ...
Simulate sprints
23
Backlog
5 SPs
3 SPs
8 SPs
13 SPs
1 SP
2 SP
1 SP
Sprint 1
3 SPs
1 SP
1 SP
5 SPs
2 SPs
2 SPs
1 SPs
Sprin...
Measure and re-estimate 1 SP?
24
• Ex: 1st sprint estimated at 16 SPs velocity
– After execution we deliver 12 SPs
– Do re...
Criteria for ordering the backlog
25
• 1st The risk which the story should diminish
• 2nd The uncertainty on client needs ...
Dealing with uncertainty
26
Demo inspired from
http://blog.bobcravens.com/2011/05/4-
principles-to-estimation-applied-to-s...
Estimate how long will the walking take?
Walking from Iasi to Bucharest
28
• Distance Iasi – Bucharest = 417 km
• Average walking velocity = 5.0 (km/h)
– http://en...
Walking from Iasi to Bucharest
29
• Initial uncertainty is probably in hours or days
We walk from Iasi to Roman
Walking from Iasi to Bucharest
31
• Distance Iasi – Roman = ~86 km
• Real walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h)
• We’ve walked 6 h...
Estimate from Roman to Bucharest?
Walking from Roman to Bucharest
33
• Distance Roman – Bucharest = ~331 km
• Estimated walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h)
• Esti...
Burn-down chart Iasi-Bucharest
34
What about agile planning poker?
35
• The most common estimation method known
in the agile community
• The interest is in ...
What about agile planning poker?
36
• The most common estimation method known
in the agile community
• The interest is in ...
Estimation issues hide higher problems!
37
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
RAF
Ideal RAF
Sprint Backlog
38
1st Story 13
2nd Story 13
3rd Story 8
4th Story 8
5th Story 13
Observed issues
39
• Just technical stories/no user stories
• Stories didn’t correspond to INVEST criteria
• Waterfall app...
Start from the need of information
40
• Clients want to know when it will be ready,
the budget…
– Ex: Continuous pulling s...
Cornel FATULESCU
agile coach
Planning is Everything. Plans are Nothing.
- Helmuth von Moltke
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Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 1 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 2 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 3 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 4 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 5 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 6 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 7 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 8 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 9 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 10 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 11 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 12 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 13 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 14 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 15 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 16 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 17 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 18 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 19 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 20 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 21 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 22 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 23 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 24 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 25 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 26 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 27 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 28 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 29 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 30 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 31 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 32 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 33 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 34 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 35 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 36 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 37 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 38 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 39 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 40 Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu Slide 41
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Iasi CodeCamp 20 april 2013 Agile Estimations and Planning - Cornel Fatulescu

  1. 1. Agile estimations and Planning Cornel FATULESCU agile coach
  2. 2. Did It Ever Happen to You? • Who the ... made this estimation? • Sorry it will take me than … hours! • I hope we’ll deliver tomorrow. • I can’t tell you how much time it will take! • We don’t have time for testing • … 2
  3. 3. Usual solution 3
  4. 4. Classical IT services supplier scenario 4 Sales Start-up Ongoing project Some experts Some members of newly created team The team Basic knowledge Some knowledge might be lost Grooming sessions Release Planning Capitalize RFP Knowledge DoR DoD Estimations Initial Release Planning Product Vision Initial Backlog Goals Problem 1 How to estimate features? Problem 2 How to plan?
  5. 5. How to estimate features ? • What does the team need for each feature in order to increment it? • How features become part of the increment? • Estimate the features! 5 Definition of Ready Definition of Done Relative Estimations
  6. 6. Feature metamorphosis flow! 6 Suggestion Assumed Estimated Ready In Progress Pre- Production Production Done
  7. 7. Feature metamorphosis flow! 7 Suggestion Assumed Estimated Ready In Progress Pre- Production Production Done ? ? ? ? Release Planning End of Release … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …… … … …
  8. 8. Sample of Definition of Ready for a feature 8 Story clarified Tasks identified Story estimated Acceptance criteria Clear dependencies Scrum Team accepts the story Responsible for acceptance User story complies INVEST rules …
  9. 9. Sample of Definition of Done for a feature 9 Design complete Development complete Code commented Static code quality analysis Unit testing is done Code Refactoring Code checkin Continuous build Tests Documentation Ready Peer reviews Jira is updated Story is accepted
  10. 10. Why relative estimations? • Product Owner: How long it will take to deliver feature A? • 1st team member : 3 Days • 2nd team member: 6 Days 10 Both estimations might be right!
  11. 11. Why relative estimations? • Product Owner: How long it will take Compared to feature B we’ve done the last time? • 1st team member : 3 times more • 2nd team member: I agree, 3 times more 11
  12. 12. Measure the size, calculate the time 12 Velocity = 𝛥𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 = 𝛥𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
  13. 13. Measure the size, calculate the time 13 Velocity = 𝛥𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝛥𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 = 𝛥𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑣𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/its-effort-not-complexity
  14. 14. It’s effort, not complexity 14 “In a class a few years back, I was given a wonderful example of this. Suppose a team consists of a little kid and a brain surgeon. Their product backlog includes two items: lick 1,000 stamps and perform a simple brain surgery–snip and done. These items are chosen to presumably take the same amount of time. If you disagree, simply adjust the number of stamps in the example. Despite their vastly different complexities, the two items should be given the same number of story points–each is expected to take the same amount of time.” -Mike Cohn http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/blog/its-effort-not-complexity
  15. 15. Visualize the estimations 15 To estimate Feature 2 Feature 5 Feature 6 Feature 7 Feature 8 Feature 9 Feature 11 1 SP Feature 1 Feature 43 Feature 32 Feature 21 Feature 23 2 SPs Feature 3 Feature 4 Feature 18 3 SPs Feature 10 Feature 88 5 SPs Feature 13 Feature 15 8 SPs Feature 22 5 SPs 6 SPs 6 SPs 10 SPs 8 SPs35 SPs
  16. 16. How to plan? 16 Our concern? Release Planning Process Sprint DoR, DoD Release DoR, DoD
  17. 17. What is release planning? 17 • It is a process not an event! Release Planning at project start-up Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Through Grooming Sessions In Scrum no more than 10% of the Sprint Usually more effort needed than in a sprint
  18. 18. Sample of Definition of Ready for a sprint 18 Sprint goal The Sprint Backlog is prioritized No hidden work Calculated capacity Team accepted the Sprint Backlog All stories meet definition of ready List of stories for regression testing
  19. 19. Sample of Definition of Done for a sprint 19 Release Build Functional testing done Regression testing done Acceptance testing done by the Product Owner Closure
  20. 20. Sprint Context 20 Team size Focus factor Sprint size Calendar days Velocity 6 People 70% 2 weeks 10 Days 16 SPs
  21. 21. Estimate 1 SP 21 • Estimate in hours several features – Ex: Feature 1 • Estimated initially at 3 SPs • Estimated in man days at 6 days • =>1 SP = 2 days • Ask the team directly how they evaluate 1SP? • Experience and measure
  22. 22. Calculate Sprints Velocity 22 Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 Person days in sprint = calendar days * team size 60 60 60 Ideal person days in sprint = person days in sprint * focus factor 42 42 42 Sprint ideal man days 1st sprint = (1-40%) * ideal person days 2nd sprint = (1-20%) * ideal person days 3rd sprint = ideal person days 25 33 42 Velocity = Sprint ideal man days/1 SP 16 22 28 Team size Focus Factor Sprint Size Calendar Days 1 SP? 6 70% 2 weeks 10 Days 1.5 Man Days
  23. 23. Simulate sprints 23 Backlog 5 SPs 3 SPs 8 SPs 13 SPs 1 SP 2 SP 1 SP Sprint 1 3 SPs 1 SP 1 SP 5 SPs 2 SPs 2 SPs 1 SPs Sprint 2 5 SPs 3 SPs 5 SPs 2 SPs 5 SPs 2 SPs Sprint 3 3 SPs 5 SPs 3 SPs 5 SPs 1 SP 5 SPs 2 SPs 5 SPs … 1st Sprint Velocity 16 SPs 2nd Sprint Velocity 22 SPs 2nd Sprint Velocity 28 SPs
  24. 24. Measure and re-estimate 1 SP? 24 • Ex: 1st sprint estimated at 16 SPs velocity – After execution we deliver 12 SPs – Do reverse calculations from the previous slides Sprint 1 Sprint 2 Sprint 3 1 SP? Before starting 1st Sprint 16 22 28 1.5 After 1st Sprint 12 16 21 2 After 2nd Sprint 12 16 21 2
  25. 25. Criteria for ordering the backlog 25 • 1st The risk which the story should diminish • 2nd The uncertainty on client needs which the story should reduce • 3rd The contribution to the product quality • 4th The dependencies between stories • 5th The utility of a story
  26. 26. Dealing with uncertainty 26 Demo inspired from http://blog.bobcravens.com/2011/05/4- principles-to-estimation-applied-to-software- development/
  27. 27. Estimate how long will the walking take?
  28. 28. Walking from Iasi to Bucharest 28 • Distance Iasi – Bucharest = 417 km • Average walking velocity = 5.0 (km/h) – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walking • We estimate walking 8 hours per day • ~ 10.5 days of walking from Iasi to Bucharest
  29. 29. Walking from Iasi to Bucharest 29 • Initial uncertainty is probably in hours or days
  30. 30. We walk from Iasi to Roman
  31. 31. Walking from Iasi to Bucharest 31 • Distance Iasi – Roman = ~86 km • Real walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h) • We’ve walked 6 hours per day • ~ 3.6 days of walking from Iasi to Roman
  32. 32. Estimate from Roman to Bucharest?
  33. 33. Walking from Roman to Bucharest 33 • Distance Roman – Bucharest = ~331 km • Estimated walking velocity = 4.0 (km/h) • Estimated walking hours per day = 6 • ~ 14.8 days of walking from Roman to Bucharest • Initial cycle time = 10.5 days of walking • Total cycle time = 18.4 days of walking
  34. 34. Burn-down chart Iasi-Bucharest 34
  35. 35. What about agile planning poker? 35 • The most common estimation method known in the agile community • The interest is in the discussions
  36. 36. What about agile planning poker? 36 • The most common estimation method known in the agile community • The interest is in the discussions
  37. 37. Estimation issues hide higher problems! 37 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 RAF Ideal RAF
  38. 38. Sprint Backlog 38 1st Story 13 2nd Story 13 3rd Story 8 4th Story 8 5th Story 13
  39. 39. Observed issues 39 • Just technical stories/no user stories • Stories didn’t correspond to INVEST criteria • Waterfall approach in iterations • Lack of Definition of Ready • Definition of Done was not respected • …
  40. 40. Start from the need of information 40 • Clients want to know when it will be ready, the budget… – Ex: Continuous pulling systems like Kanban =>use average Cycle Time instead • TODO in another knowledge sharing session!
  41. 41. Cornel FATULESCU agile coach Planning is Everything. Plans are Nothing. - Helmuth von Moltke

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