David Reinsel - Entering the Era of Big IT

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David Reinsel - Entering the Era of Big IT

  1. 1. E ntering the E ra of Big ITDavid ReinselGroup Vice President Storage,S emiconductors, G R C Infrastructure, Pricing Copyright IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved.
  2. 2. Agenda Fueling the Digital Universe Big IT Important areas of opportunities on which to focus • Public/Private Cloud • Security/Privacy Where does it What isContent • How Much? all come from? driving Big IT? • What Kind? • Metadata Context • Sensors© IDC Feb-11
  3. 3. The Long View - IT Worldwide IT Spending Growth 1996-2014 (%)15%10% 5% 0% -5%-10% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012e 2014eSource : IDC Worldwide Black Book, Q2 2010; growth in constant currency© IDC Feb-11
  4. 4. Digital Universe Growth vs StorageCapacity Shipments W W C ontent Creation Vs. Storage Shipments900EB800EB700EB600EB M em ory500EB NV Flash Tape400EB O ptical300EB Hard Disk Drives WW C ontent Creation200EB100EB 0EB 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009© IDC Source: IDC Digital Universe Study, sponsored by EMC, 2010 Feb-11
  5. 5. Fueling the Digital Universe 7.2% 2.8% 1.5% 0.4% 2009 0.8 ZB Media Cameras Data 31.5% Music 56.7% Voice Capture Other© IDC Source: IDC Digital Universe Study, sponsored by EMC, May 2010 Feb-11 5
  6. 6. Digital Universe Growth –Long-term Content Creation 100,000,000 35 Zetabytes 10,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 10,000 WW Content Creation 1,000 100 10 1 2005 2010 2015 2020© IDC Source: IDC Digital Universe Study, sponsored by EMC, 2010 Feb-11
  7. 7. Data-Intensive Social Networks Assumption Annual Footprint 400M ‘ active ’ users 10M B /us er 4,000T B 60M status updates/day 0.25K B /update 5T B /yr 10B comments/mo 0.125K B /update 15T B /yr 20M videos uploaded/mo 8M B /v ide o 1,920T B /yr ~14,436 Terabytes 100K B 3B photos uploaded/mo /photo 3,600T B /yr 24 hrs of videoContent of uploaded/min 12.5M B /vide o 3,787T B /yr Creation in 2010 55M tweets/day 125B ytes /twe et 2.5T B /yr 3M p hoto uplo a d s/d a y 1M B /photo 1,096T B /yr 70M members 0.1M B /profile 7T B 1 new member every sec 0.1M B /profile 3T B /yr© IDC Feb-11 7
  8. 8. Next Agenda Item • Why? Cloud • How Big? Where does it What is Content • How Much? all come • What Kind? from? Driving Big IT? • Metadata Context • Sensors© IDC Feb-11
  9. 9. Consumption is a Big Driver of BIG Consumption • Drives Traffic (ad revenue) • Drives eCommerce • Drives Social Networks • Drives Mobility (devices and apps) •Drives Personal Services •Demands Analytics© IDC Feb-11 9
  10. 10. Consumption VS Creation 624PB/yr 260B pg. views/mo 10M B /us er 4,000T B 192PB/yr 2B vid. views/mo 0.25K B /update 5T B /yr9,131PB/yr 2B vid. views/day 0.125K B /update 15T B /yr 0.5PB/yr 4.4B pg. views/mo 8M B /v ide o 1,920T B /yr 56PB/yr 30.4M views/day 100K B /photo 3,600T B /yr 0.2PB/yr 1.9B pg. views/mo 12.5M B /vide o 3,787T B /yr 125B ytes /twe et 2.4T B /yr 1M B /photo 1,096T B /yr 0.1M B /profile 7T B 0.1M B /profile 3T B /yr© IDC Feb-11 10
  11. 11. Big Data is not the Created Content nor is it even itsConsumption – It’s the analysis of all the datasurrounding or swirling around itFrom Science Projects to Social Networks to Smart Technology MORE MORE DEVICES APPLICATIONS MORE MORE ON-DEMAND CONTENT ACCESS Finding Answers where there are yet to be Questions…© IDC Feb-11
  12. 12. Consumption is a Big Driver of BIG! • Virtualization Cloud • Convergence • Context Mobility • Commerce • Sensors Smart • Decisions© IDC Feb-11 12
  13. 13. What’s So Appealing About Cloud N = 219 Source: IDC’s IT Cloud Services Survey, Q2 2010 (# 225021)© IDC Feb-11 13
  14. 14. Netflix and the Cloud Feb ’07 – 1 Billionth DVD May ’08 – 1st Set-top box to stream Late ’08 – 1 Data Center Feb ’09 – 10 Million Users (2nd Datacenter?)© IDC Feb-11 14
  15. 15. Netflix and the Cloud Feb ’07 – 1 Billionth DVD “ W hat I need–isstan exact list stream May ’08 1 Set-top box to of specific unknown problem s we might encounter”Center Late ’08 – 1 Data -Anonymous Feb ’09 – 10 Million Users (2nd Datacenter?) Apr ’09 – 2 Billionth DVD Late ’10 – A ma zo n AWS© IDC Feb-11 15
  16. 16. Netflix and the Cloud 1. We needed to re-architect, which allowed us to question everything, including whether to keep building out our own data center solution. 2. Letting Amazon focus on data center infrastructure allows our engineers to focus on building and improving our business. 3. We’re not very good at predicting customer growth or device engagement. 4. We think cloud computing is the future. Drivin g Netlix’s De cisio n© IDC Feb-11 16
  17. 17. Consuming the Right Content at theRight Time • Virtualization Cloud • Convergence • Context Mobility • Commerce Smart • Sensors • Decisions© IDC Feb-11 17
  18. 18. Devices Communicating at any giventime (2012)– excluding enterprise datacenters Mobile Devices (4.2B) Computers (1.9B) Entertainment (1.3B) Home Networking (1.0B) Toys/Appliances (0.8B) VoIP (0.7B) Industrial/Auto (0.2B)© IDC Feb-11
  19. 19. Fueling the Digital Universe (2020) 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2020 35 ZB 20.1% Media Cameras 48.8% Data Music Voice Capture Other 30.8%© IDC Source: IDC Digital Universe Study, sponsored by EMC, May 2010 Feb-11 19
  20. 20. Digital Universe Growth –Content vs # of Files 100,000,000,000 # of Files (M) 10,000,000,000 200 Trillion in 2009 1,000,000,000 15 Q uintillion in 2020! 100,000,000 35 Zetabytes 10,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 WW Content Creation WW Files 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 2011 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2017 2018 2019 2020 2015 2016© IDC Source: IDC Digital Universe Study, sponsored by EMC, 2010 Feb-11
  21. 21. © IDC Feb-11 21
  22. 22. Capturing Real-time Value in a ConnectedWorld Soft drink system that allows consumers over 100 different product variations “Made to order” drinks Sensors report machine state Data instantly reported to prod development and marketing (real time research) Analytics applied to predict demand profiles© IDC Feb-11
  23. 23. LinkedIn Swarm Analysis – Real Time Visual AnalyticsLinkedIn Swarm visualizes LinkedIn’s most recent company andtitles searches, jobs posted, blog entries and shared as amoving “tag cloud”, or rather a “tag swarm” and it cycles through avariety of topics automatically. © IDC Source: http://blog.linkedin.com/2011/01/25/linkedin-swarm/ Feb-11 23
  24. 24. Consuming the Right Content at theRight time - CONTEXT Cloud • Virtualization • Convergence • Context Mobility • Commerce •Sensors Smart •Decisions© IDC Feb-11 24
  25. 25. Smart in the Wake of Tragedy Aug 1, 2007, I-35W Mississippi river bridge collapsed during rush hour. 5th busiest bridge in the state, carrying 140,000 vehicles daily. 13 people killed and 145 injured. The new bridge opened September 19, 2008 at a cost of over $200M© IDC Feb-11 25
  26. 26. Smart Technology323 sensors with nearly 500 channels of information flow possible.Data file sizes which are being stored each day:Dynamic data = ~500 MB/day -- SOFO Static = ~7 MB/day -- VW Static = ~0.5 MB/dayThese amounts are based on hourly static readings, and dynamic readings at 100 Hz foraccelerometers and 4 Hz for the LPs and strain gages. © IDC Feb-11 26
  27. 27. Last Agenda Item • Public/Privat e Where does it Cloud • Security/Priv acy all come What is Driving Conte nt • How Much? • What Kind? from? Big IT? Conte • Metadata xt • Sensors© IDC Feb-11
  28. 28. There is a real cost to store all this Data – MORE EFFICIENCY is needed $1.7M = T h e av g. co st to acq uire 1P B of enterprise extern al storag e in 2010 $130K = T h e co st to p o w er an d co ol 1P B of extern al storag e in 2010 180,000PB $5,000M Installed P B s vs. C ost to Power and C ool 160,000PB (C o n te x t = W W E n te rp ris e E x te rn a l S to ra g e) $4,500M 140,000PB $4,000M 120,000PB $3,500M 100,000PB $60.79/yr ?? $3,000M $2,500M 80,000PB $2,000M 60,000PB $1,500M 40,000PB $1,000M 20,000PB $500M 0PB $0M 2011e 2010e 2012e 2013e 2014e 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Installed base of Ext. Storage WW Cost to Power and CoolSource: IDC September, 2010 - Doc #225016, “A Plateau in Sight for the Rising Costs Power and Cool the Worlds External Storage?” © IDC Feb-11
  29. 29. The Need for Information Security Percentage of the Digital Universe Lockdown (financial transactions, medical, military) 50% Confidential (trade secrets, customer lists, secret memos) Custodial (account information – could lead to ID theft) Compliance (emails that might be discoverable in litigation) 40% Privacy (email address on a Youtube upload) 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2020© IDC Source: IDC Digital Universe Study, sponsored by EMC, May 2010 Feb-11
  30. 30. Billions of Interactions….Billions of Sensors B illio n s of C o n n e cte d D e vic e s, 2020 TAM Embedded 25+ billion 200B Big T hin g s Other CE 2.0 billion 1-5 x Peo ple Phones 2.6 billion <1 x Peo ple PCs 1.9 billion <.5 x Peo ple© IDC Feb-11
  31. 31. Summary and ConclusionOne of the top dynamics driving Big IT: CONSUMPTION • Cloud enabling massive connectivity • C onte nt grows at a 40% CAGR to 35ZB in 2020 (Meta data fastest growing segment – massive management of files) • C onte xt aware is critical to enabling consumption of the right data at the right time. (Meta data will be critical in defining context and optimizing commerce opportunity)Opportunities upon which to focus: • A drive for more efficie nc y • The dire need for se c urity a nd priva c y • Big Data apps must be cloud-frie ndly • Ability to manage, analyze, and make decisions on data that is captured via BILLIO NS of se nsors , devices, and machines – but must be smart about it. © IDC Feb-11
  32. 32. Thank you! Please email me at dreinsel@idc.com© IDC Feb-11

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