European eCommerce Forecast:
2008 To 2013

Victoria Bracewell Lewis
Senior Analyst
Forrester Research




28 October 2008
Agenda

     • Pan European forecast overview
     • Country specific data
     • Top categories
     • Key drivers for eC...
Despite economic woes, online shopping
    remains in strong growth mode
            “Have you bought any products or serv...
Online retail sales for Western Europe will
        reach €175 billion by 2013
Total online retail sales
 for Western Euro...
With the UK, Germany, and France keeping a
      leader position, but closely followed by Nordics
      Total online
     ...
Books and travel are the top three most popular
    products bought online in Europe
                         “Which of th...
Forecast: European eCommerce, 2008 to 2013
                                                                           Fore...
However, the opportunity is much larger


Mastering What’s Important Now                                             Evolv...
No longer enough to compete basics – the shift
     will need focus on three new key drivers




Convenience              ...
Thank you

      Victoria Bracewell Lewis
      Senior Analyst


      VBracewellLewis@forrester.co.uk

      www.forreste...
Forrester Research For Emota Shoporg Eu Event 28.10.08
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Forrester Research For Emota Shoporg Eu Event 28.10.08

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European eCommerce Forecast: 2008 To 2013

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Forrester Research For Emota Shoporg Eu Event 28.10.08

  1. 1. European eCommerce Forecast: 2008 To 2013 Victoria Bracewell Lewis Senior Analyst Forrester Research 28 October 2008
  2. 2. Agenda • Pan European forecast overview • Country specific data • Top categories • Key drivers for eCommerce 3 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  3. 3. Despite economic woes, online shopping remains in strong growth mode “Have you bought any products or services online in the past three months?” 66% Germany and the UK UK 73% 79% still account for 60% of Europe’s online 56% Sweden 65% shoppers 72% 58% 4.6m Germany 66% 75% 39% U France 56% 60% 29m 8.6m 42% 36m Netherlands 57% 70% 18% 18m Italy 29% Q2 2004 8m 33% Q2 2006 PV S L TLR 16% Q2 2008 Spain 24% 6m 31% Base: At least 22,102 European net users (16+) 4 Source: Forrester's Consumer Technology Adoption Study, 2004 to 2008 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  4. 4. Online retail sales for Western Europe will reach €175 billion by 2013 Total online retail sales for Western Europe (in € millions) Actual Forecast € 200,000 € 180,000 € 160,000 € 140,000 € 120,000 € 100,000 € 80,000 € 60,000 € 40,000 € 20,000 €0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Base: European online consumers Source: European Technographics® Benchmark Surveys, 2002-2008 5 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  5. 5. With the UK, Germany, and France keeping a leader position, but closely followed by Nordics Total online retail sales for EU-7 (in € millions) € 60,000 Actual Forecast United Kingdom Germany € 50,000 France Netherlands € 40,000 Sweden Italy € 30,000 Spain € 20,000 € 10,000 €0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Base: European online consumers Source: European Technographics® Benchmark Surveys, 2002-2008 6 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  6. 6. Books and travel are the top three most popular products bought online in Europe “Which of the following products have you bought online in the past three months?” Books 18% Books 32% Leisure 14% Videos/DVDs 31% travel Leisure travel Clothing 13% (flights, 29% package Books 24% Clothing 16% Leisure Videos/DVDs 24% 12% travel Leisure travel 23% Books 12% Base: 12,295 EU online adults Note: EU-5 includes individuals in the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain Source: European Technographics Benchmark Survey, Q2 2008 7 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  7. 7. Forecast: European eCommerce, 2008 to 2013 Forecast Actual 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total European online €124.1 €136.0 €151.2 €163.6 €174.7 €186.1 sales (€ billions) Apparel €16.2 €17.4 €19.1 €20.5 €21.6 €22.8 Clothing €14.1 €15.1 €16.5 €17.6 €18.6 €19.6 Footwear €1.8 €2 €2.2 €2.4 €2.6 €2.8 Jewelry/watches €0.3 €0.3 €0.4 €0.4 €0.5 €0.5 Electronics & Electrical €24.4 €27.0 €30.2 €33.0 €35.5 €38.1 Computer hardware €3.7 €3.8 €3.8 €3.8 €3.8 €3.7 Households appliances €2.2 €2.5 €2.8 €3.1 €3.4 €3.7 Source: European Technographics® Benchmark Survey, Q2 2008 8 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  8. 8. However, the opportunity is much larger Mastering What’s Important Now Evolving to the Future Forrester predicts that by 2012 nearly half of US and Western EU retail sales will either be transacted online or influenced by the Web. Source: apple.com Truly differentiated eCommerce experiences will do to Web shopping what the Apple Stores have done to bricks-and-mortar business. 9 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  9. 9. No longer enough to compete basics – the shift will need focus on three new key drivers Convenience Selection Service Control Price Audience Engagement Integrated in a multichannel world 10 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
  10. 10. Thank you Victoria Bracewell Lewis Senior Analyst VBracewellLewis@forrester.co.uk www.forrester.com 11 Entire contents © 2008 Forrester Research, Inc. All rights reserved.

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