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Philipp Blohm - Cognitive Decision Support Systems

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Philipp Blohm, Developer, Clueda AG:
- Wie man aus Texten Wissen extrahiert
- Cognitive Decision Support Systems (DSS) in der Medizin
- Cognitive DSS in der Finanzwelt
- Ausblick auf die Zukunft von Cognitive DSS

In immer mehr Bereichen kommen komplexe Fragestellungen auf, die an die Grenzen der Fähigkeiten eines einzelnen Menschen stoßen. So müssen Trader innerhalb von Sekunden den Status von unzähligen Firmen einschätzen und Ärzte zu komplexen Krankheitsbildern unter tausenden möglichen Diagnosen die richtige finden. Im Informationszeitalter existiert zwar eine Flut von Informationen, häufig mangelt es aber an Mitteln diese auch nutzbar zu machen. Methoden des Cognitive Computing schaffen schon heute Abhilfe in einigen dieser Bereiche. In der Form von intelligenten Entscheidungsunterstützungssystemen (Decision Support Systems) gehen sie eine Symbiose mit dem Menschen ein und erweitern so die kognitiven Möglichkeiten des Anwenders. Diese Präsentation gibt eine Einführung in die Arbeitsweise von Cognitive Decision Support Systems und erläutert deren Möglichkeiten anhand von Beispielen aus der Medizin und Finanzwelt.

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Philipp Blohm - Cognitive Decision Support Systems

  1. 1. Cognitive Decision Support Systems
  2. 2. Alzheimer: 98.353 Wissenschaftliche Artikel 8.467 Wörter/Artikel 250 Wörter/Minute durchschnittliche Lesegeschwindigkeit 229 Arbeitstage/Jahr 30 Jahre lesen
  3. 3. Alzheimer: 98.353 Wissenschaftliche Artikel 8.467 Wörter/Artikel 250 Wörter/Minute durchschnittliche Lesegeschwindigkeit 229 Arbeitstage/Jahr 30 Jahre lesen Alzheimer: 8.187 Neue Artikel/Monat 250.000 Neue Artikel nach 30 Jahren 76.4 Jahre lesen
  4. 4. Nachrichten: Bis zu 20.000 Nachrichten/Tag (nur Bloomberg) Dazu Blogs, Tweets, Facebook, ...
  5. 5. Krankheiten: 15.600 Unterschiedliche Diagnosen < 8 Minuten pro Patient
  6. 6. Wir übersehen Muster ‣Princeton-Prof. Burton Malkiel: “A blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.”
  7. 7. Wir übersehen Muster ‣Studie von Research Affiliates “Malkiel was wrong. The monkeys have done a much better job than both the experts and the stock market.”
  8. 8. Wir übersehen Muster ‣Langzeitstudie von Tetlock ‣284 Experten zu politischen, ökonomischen Entwicklungen ‣82.361 Vorhersagen ‣Schwächer als Zufallsverteilung
  9. 9. Decision Support Systems (DSS) ‣Symbiose mit Menschen ‣Wissen sammeln, organisieren, visualisieren ‣Modelle, Prognosen, Szenarien ‣Data Mining/ Machine Learning
  10. 10. Cognitive DSS ‣Nutzen Natural Language Processing (NLP) um Wissen aus Texten zu extrahieren ‣Haben menschenähnliches konzeptionelles Verständnis ‣Kommunizieren natürlicher mit Menschen
  11. 11. 1ms = $100m profit
  12. 12. clueda.trader ‣Echtzeit-Analyse von Nachrichten ‣Filterung auf Finanzmarkt-relevante Events ‣Entwickelt für Baader Bank
  13. 13. Semantische Analyse
  14. 14. Example Sentence Relation 1 Relation 2 Semantische Muster
  15. 15. COMPANY COMPANYPrevious knowledge CRITICISM EVENT is a is a criticized Muster verstehen
  16. 16. Ambiguität ‣455 unterschiedliche Interpretationen für den Satz: „List sales of the products produced in 1973 with the products produced in 1972.“ Martin, W. A., Church, K. W., and Patil, R. S., Preliminary analysis of the breadth-first parsing algorithm: theoretical and experimental results, 1987.
  17. 17. Cognitive Computing ‣Ambiguität annehmen ‣Big-Data-Technologien nutzen ‣Eigene effiziente Implementationen ‣Alternativen berechnen und gewichten
  18. 18. clueda.trader ‣Semantische Aufbereitung komplexer Informationen ‣Deutliche Minimierung von Verlustgeschäften
  19. 19. ‣Über 6.800 seltene Krankheiten ‣Teilweise bekommt Arzt Krankheit nur einmal in seinem Leben zu sehen ‣Große Archive von Patientenakten Diagnose DSS
  20. 20. Relevanz von Kontextinformationen VW “same profit as last year” published expect Analysts “much higher profit” for VW News A News B
  21. 21. Text Inhalt ContextKontext Semantische Muster Reasoning Stichwortsuchen Reasoning
  22. 22. Semantische Netzwerke Analysts ....... ...... ..... Interest rates ..... VW Profit VW share price VW ........ .... published <same> expect <higher> influence influences
  23. 23. Reasoning ‣Logik ‣Automatic Inference ‣Artificial Intelligence ‣Statistik ‣Machine Learning ‣Mustererkennung ‣Ranking Algorithmen
  24. 24. Morbus Pompe ‣ Fortschreitende Muskelschwäche (vor allem Atemmuskulatur, Skelettmuskulatur) ‣ 100 – 200 diagnostizierte Menschen in Deutschland ‣ Kohort-Studien lassen tatsächlich ca. 900 erkrankte Menschen vermuten
  25. 25. Morbus Pompe ‣ Kollaboration mit Friedrich Baur Institut (Klinikum der Universität München) ‣ 7 der 20 identifizierten Patienten waren für Untersuchungen erreichbar ‣ Bei 5 konnte Morbus Pompe nachgewiesen werden, 2 waren Anlagenträger 90.000 Documents Information Compression Semantic Identification 20 Patients Clinical Information System Individual approach … digital/scanned documents Redundancy removal Automatic approach Diagnosis Niemann Pick Type C
  26. 26. ‣Cognitive DSS helfen Menschen schon heute bessere Entscheidungen zu treffen ‣Durch NLP werden riesige Mengen unstrukturierter Information zugänglich ‣Big-Data-Technologien und effizientere Implementationen ermöglichen Echtzeit- Analysen ‣Zukünftige Bereiche: Recht, Management, Politik, ... Cognitive DSS
  27. 27. p.blohm@clueda.com
  28. 28. Quellen Referenzen ‣Slide 8 Behandlungszeit http://haetten-sie-gewusst.blogspot.de/2010/02/wie-viel-zeit-ein-arzt-durchschnittlich.html ‣Slide 8 Anzahl Krankheiten http://www.aok-bv.de/presse/medienservice/politik/index_02010.html ‣Slide 9 Malkiel, B. G., A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing, 1973. ‣Slide 10 http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/12/20/any-monkey-can-beat-the-market/ ‣Slide 12 Mlodinow, L., The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, 2008. ‣Slide 17 Profit for 1ms time advantage http://www.informationweek.com/wall-streets-quest-to-process-data-at-th/199200297 Bilder ‣Slide 2 http://www.inspectorinsight.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/istock_000003253995medium3.jpg ‣Slide 5 http://static.businessinsider.com/image/51d7c69aeab8ea441f00001f/image.jpg ‣Slide 7 http://classconnection.s3.amazonaws.com/669/flashcards/823669/jpg/when1330403134315.jpg ‣Slide 9 http://i280.photobucket.com/albums/kk167/Specalt/Random%20stuff/monkey-darts.jpg ‣Slide 12 http://bigapplepest.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/rat_pic.jpg ‣Slide 16 http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/72/Battle_of_Waterloo_1815.PNG/1024px-Battle_of_Waterloo_1815.PNG ‣Slide 22 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apple_(disambiguation) ‣Slide 28 http://www.healthcare-computing.de/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/papierakte.jpg ‣Slide 34 http://www.designthinkingblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/thinking.gif ‣Slide 35 http://www.lysosolutions.de/uploads/pics/pompe-patient_adult.jpg
  29. 29. Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!

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