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Impacto del Cambio Climático en Áreas Marinas Protegidas

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Se describe el Cambio Climático y su impacto en los patrones climáticos, la población vulnerable y sobre los ambientes marinos. Ciclo de Conferencias sobre Cambio Climático en Áreas Naturales Protegidas desde la Regional Noroeste y Alto Golfo de California. CONANP, México, 2015.

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Impacto del Cambio Climático en Áreas Marinas Protegidas

  1. 1. Impactos del Cambio Climático en Áreas Marinas Protegidas Ciclo de Conferencias sobre Cambio Climático en Áreas Naturales Protegidas desde la Regional Noroeste y Alto Golfo de California. Dr. Carlos Lizárraga Celaya (clizarraga@gmail.com) Departamento de Física, Universidad de Sonora Hermosillo, Sonora. 29 de mayo de 2015
  2. 2. El Cambio Climático ha iniciado. http://www.climatecentral.org/videos/climate-in-context/135-years-of-global-warming-in-30-seconds
  3. 3. https://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5: Assessment Report 5 Revisión del estado actual del conocimiento científico relevante al cambio climático
  4. 4. http://www.climatechange2013.org/ WORKING GROUP I Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis AR5: Assessment Report 5
  5. 5. http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/ WORKING GROUP II Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability AR5: Assessment Report 5 AR5: Assessment Report 5
  6. 6. http://mitigation2014.org/ WORKING GROUP III Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change AR5: Assessment Report 5
  7. 7. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report AR5: Assessment Report 5
  8. 8. Un clima cambiante lleva a cambios en fenómenos meteorológicos y eventos climáticos extremos Inundaciones, incendios forestales, sequías extremas, precipitaciones intensas
  9. 9. Dependencia de los impactos de eventos extremos Naturaleza y severidad del evento Vulnerabilidad Exposición
  10. 10. Impacto de los eventos extremos ● Agricultura (Pérdida de cosechas, crisis alimentarias) ● Ganadería (Pérdida de animales) ● Energía (Aumento en la demanda, interrupción) ● Agua (Escasez, potabilidad) ● Salud (Dengue, cólera, salmonela, …) ● Transporte (Inundaciones, destrucción) ● Zonas urbanas (Inundaciones, destrucción) ● Migración (humana, especies)
  11. 11. Eventos extremos generalizados
  12. 12. Continúa el debate en el Congreso de los Estados Unidos sobre si el Cambio Climático se debe a las actividades humanas: Demócratas (apoyada en 97% comunidad científica convencida: NOAA, NASA,...) vs. Republicanos (presentando al 3% de la comunidad escéptica) para contrarrestar. Los Republicanos controlan el voto del Congreso, así que no hay acuerdo. Aquí no pasa nada...
  13. 13. Sin embargo….
  14. 14. Azul Inundaciones Azul claro Deslaves Verde Tormentas Amarillo Sequías Magenta Temp. extremas Naranja Incendios forestales http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jul/14/8-charts-climate-change-world-more-dangerous
  15. 15. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jul/14/8-charts-climate-change-world-more-dangerous Azul Inundaciones Azul claro Deslaves Verde Tormentas Amarillo Sequías Magenta Temp. extremas Naranja Incendios forestales US$ miles de millones (2012)
  16. 16. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2014/jul/14/8-charts-climate-change-world-more-dangerous Azul Inundaciones Azul claro Deslaves Verde Tormentas Amarillo Sequías Magenta Temp. extremas Naranja Incendios forestales
  17. 17. Un vistazo a los eventos extremos recientes
  18. 18. Eventos Extremos: Ondas de calor Junio 2006 Ondas de calor Anomalías 5ºC Junio - Agosto 2003 Ondas de calor Anomalías 10ºC 70,000 muertes
  19. 19. Eventos Extremos: Ondas de calor Junio 17-24 2012 Ondas de calor Anomalías 12ºC Región de Alta Presión permite el aumento de la temperatura en la atmósfera debido a la radiación de calor de la superficie.
  20. 20. Onda de calor, India. Semana Mayo 26, 2015. Aprox. 1100 muertes Ola de calor en 2012, 1250 fallecidos 2004-2013: 2700 personas fallecidas por impacto de calor.
  21. 21. Eventos Extremos Phoenix AZ Tormenta de polvo “Haboob” 3 de Julio, 2014
  22. 22. Eventos Extremos Desierto Atacama, Antofagasta, Chile (4000 msnm) Inundación: 107 muertos, 6000 desplazados 26 de Marzo de 2015 Precipitación promedio: max 3.8 mm/año (1970-2000) Precipitación: 24.4mm / 24 horas
  23. 23. Inundaciones en Austin, Texas 25 de mayo de 2015 11 muertos Alerta de Tornados en Oklahoma 25 de mayo de 2015
  24. 24. Tornado: Cd. Acuña, Coahuila. Mayo 25, 2015. 13 muertos, 88 heridos.
  25. 25. Eventos Extremos: Tornados Mayo 2-8, 1999 152 tornados USA OK, TX, NB, KA, AR. F5 (484±32km/h) OK City, 50 muertes.
  26. 26. ¿Cómo funciona el Clima?: Teleconexiones
  27. 27. http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/ Región de la Oscilación del Sur El Niño (ENSO)
  28. 28. http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/
  29. 29. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anim.year.html
  30. 30. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/indicators/sst.php
  31. 31. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o_Southern_Oscillation Condiciones normales
  32. 32. El Niño
  33. 33. Teleconexiones
  34. 34. El Niño: Corriente de Chorro en Verano
  35. 35. El Niño: Corriente de Chorro Invierno
  36. 36. La Niña
  37. 37. La Niña: Corriente de Corro Verano
  38. 38. La Niña: Corriente de Chorro en Invierno
  39. 39. México y La Niña
  40. 40. Sequía Junio 2011
  41. 41. ¿Qué podemos esperar ante el Cambio Climático?
  42. 42. Eventos Extremos
  43. 43. Eventos Extremos
  44. 44. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  45. 45. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  46. 46. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  47. 47. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  48. 48. Proyección de Uso de Energía. Escenarios RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways)
  49. 49. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  50. 50. 1958-2012
  51. 51. La Aragonita es una forma de carbonato de calcio que utlizan muchos animales marinos para construir su esqueleto y conchas. Entre más bajo es el nivel de saturación, mas dofícil es para los organismos para crear y mantener sus esqueletos y conchas. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  52. 52. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  53. 53. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  54. 54. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  55. 55. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  56. 56. http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicators/oceans/index.html
  57. 57. Variabilidad y Cambio: ¿Qué nos espera?
  58. 58. Intensidad de huracanes en un clima más caliente
  59. 59. Predicción de los modelos del Monzón ante Cambio Climático
  60. 60. Eventos Extremos RCP 4.5 Megasequías
  61. 61. RCP 8.5 Megasequías
  62. 62. Temperatura observada y cambio proyectado IPCC 2014
  63. 63. Habitats marinos: Arrecifes coralinos Los corales cubren alrededor del 0.1% de la superficie de los océanos (tamaño de Francia) pero hospedan al menos el 25% (~400) de las especies marinas. Los corales crecen mejor en aguas claras, templadas, poco profundas, soleadas y agitadas (óptimo: 22-25ºC, límites de tolerancia: 20-29ºC)
  64. 64. Areas de surgencias de agua fría rica en nutrientes (en rojo). Areas no propicias para corales. Isotermas de 20ºC (azul) Temp. ideal para los corales
  65. 65. Zonas de arrecifes de corales
  66. 66. Corales blanqueados
  67. 67. Zonas de manglares
  68. 68. Las principales amenazas sobre los corales son el incremento de la temperatura de los océanos, la radiación solar y el incremento de acidez de los océanos. Corales creciendo a la sombra de los algunos manglares
  69. 69. Tasa promedio de pérdida anual global de manglares 0.13% (1.38% 2000-2012). Tasa promedio de pérdida anual por deforestación 0.41% - Global Forest Watch.
  70. 70. Tasa promedio anual de pérdida de cobertura de manglar en México 1 a 2.5%. (P. Alvarez Icaza, Conabio, 2014) En nuestro país los manglares han sido afectados principalmente por la tala o remoción que se ha llevado a cabo para abrir paso a las actividades agrícolas, ganaderas, acuícolas y turísticas.
  71. 71. Adaptación al Cambio Climático. IPCC 2014.
  72. 72. http://www.cmar.csiro.au/climateimpacts/
  73. 73. http://www.cmar.csiro.au/climateimpacts/
  74. 74. http://www.cmar.csiro.au/climateimpacts/
  75. 75. En resumen… el panorama no se ve alentador.
  76. 76. Corales blanqueados, elevación del nivel de mar, acidificación de océanos, disminución de mezclado nutrientes, migración de especies. alteración de las tazas de reproducción de algunas especies marinas, tormentas marítimas... Efectos de calentamiento global sobre ambientes marinos
  77. 77. ¿Y qué hacemos en este momento para reducir el calentamiento global?
  78. 78. ¡Muchas gracias!
  79. 79. Impactos del Cambio Climático en Áreas Marinas Protegidas Ciclo de Conferencias sobre Cambio Climático en Áreas Naturales Protegidas desde la Regional Noroeste y Alto Golfo de California. Dr. Carlos Lizárraga Celaya (clizarraga@gmail.com) Departamento de Física, Universidad de Sonora Hermosillo, Sonora. 29 de mayo de 2015

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