Bridging the gap between climate change science and action: CLIMsystems and the SimCLIM system
Importance and Demand• Importance of Climate Change Scenarios for End Users: V&A assessment, planning, mitigation, DRR• Who practically use the scenarios: Policy makers (Planners), consultants, engineers, researchers . . .• What sort of information do they demand: extremes, averages, sea level, temperature, precipitation, wind, vapour pressure, sea surface temperature, TC.
Examples of adaptation activities that require climate risk information• New infrastructure Cost–benefit analysis, infrastructure performance and design• Resource management Assessment of natural resource availability, status and allocation• Retrofit Scoping assessments to identify risks and reduce exposure to extreme events• Behavioural Measures that optimize scheduling or performance of existing infrastructure• Institutional Regulation, monitoring and reporting• Sectoral Economic planning, sector restructuring, guidance and standards, DRR• Communication Communicating risks to stakeholders, high-level advocacy and planning, DRR• Financial Services to transfer risk, incentives and insurance
Model assessment and inter-comparison• This implies caution when interpreting the output from a single model or a single type of model (e.g. regional climate models) and the advantage of including as many different types of downscaling models, global models and emission scenarios as possible when developing climate-change projections at the local scale (Haylock et al 2006)• CORDEX: Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)• STARDEX: Statistical and Regional dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European regions• HadEX: Hadley Centre global land-based gridded climate extremes data set
Regional/country/local/ Climate Change Baseline and Scenarios East Timor Malampa Vanuatu Bhutan Marshall IslandsEritrea Ho Chi Minh City Korean PeninsulaUsing all available IPCC AR4 Data (all more than 20 GCMs, daily monthly output,Temp, Prec, relative humidity, wind, SST, solar radiation)
Co-evolutionary Decision Support System for climate change V&A assessment •Speeds up problem solving: With the pre- loaded data and impact models, and the fast analysis functionality and user friendly interface •Facilitates interpersonal communication: All groups work with same data, platform and models •Promotes learning or training •Generates new evidence in support of a decision •Encourages exploration and discovery on the part of the decision maker Developed with support from •Reveals new approaches to the formulationAPN FAWSIM project (2008-2010) of problems. Bridges scientific community and policy makers
Training SNC Training VanuatuIMHEN Training Viet Nam V & A Training Epi Island SimCLIM Training New Zealand
Summary• Regional/local climate change uncertainty is considerable, inter model variability is the largest component.• Multiple model, downscaling method and RCP(SRES) ensemble approach is needed for risk assessment.• Rapid scenario production has advantages in impact and adaptation assessment• Direct communication between researchers and end users is crucial for the whole assessment process• Hands-on tools are a plausible bridge to end users Thank you