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Mitigation and Adaptation Synergies in Tunisia


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Mitigation and Adaptation Synergies in Tunisia

  1. 1. Implemented by Mitigation and Adaptation Synergies in Tunisia COP19-Warsaw Nov 14, 2013 Win-win approaches to low-emission and climateresilient development: A focus on synergies Anselm Duchrow 22.11.2013 Synergies, Tunisia – Anselm Duchrow Seite 1
  2. 2. Content 1. Climate Change in Tunisia – the Challenges 2. The Water-Energy and food security nexus 3. Climate and Sustainable Development Policies 4. NAMAs contributing to mitigation and more social and ecological resilience 22.11.2013 XXX Seite 2
  3. 3. Implemented by Scenarios: Temperature and Precipitation Projected Increase of temperatures (°C) until 2020 and 2050 in Tunisia: +0,8°C to +1,3°C by 2020 Projected decrease (%) of average annual precipitation by 2020 and 2050: -6% to -10% by 2020 Source: Stratégie Nationale sur le Changement Climatique en Tunisie (SNCC) 22.11.2013 XXX Seite 3
  4. 4. Scenarios: Water • Climated-induced sea level rise: 10-12 cm (2030) and 17-22cm (2050) • -28% of phreatic water ressources, coastal aquifers, and non renewable aquifers, -5% of surface water • Demographic growth, urbanization and economic development lead to increasing water demand • Increase of salinity of coastal aquifers, water demand for irrigation, and intrusion of marine water 22.11.2013 XXX Seite 4
  5. 5. Challenges: Adaptation • Tourism: Increase of heat periods, climate induced sea level rise threatening touristic infrastructure, reemergence of • Agriculture: increase in waterdemand for irrigation, loss of arable land, intensification of land use in vulnerable areas; decrease of production and yield • Ecosystems: degradation of pastoral ecosystems in the Centre and South (ex. Esparto and Coark Oak) • Oasis Agriculture: 10% of the Tunisian population depends on Oasis agriculture, which faces diminishing variety of dates, soil salinization, and overexploitation of water ressources 22.11.2013 XXX Seite 5
  6. 6. Challenges: Mitigation GHG Emissions per sector Land-Use Change 9% Waste 5% Industry 11% Agriculture 20% Source: SNCC Energy 55% Evolution of GHG Emissions per capita in Tunisia in Tons of CO2 from 1968 to 2008 With 3.4 TE CO2 per capita, Tunisia is among the least « emission-intensive » developing countries (world average: 4,5 t/capita) • Large mitigation potential: 151 million TECO2 from 2008-2020 (Energy 73%, Agriculture 14%, waste 13%) • CO² intensity decreased by 25% between 1990 and 2009, but economic growth leeds to steep increase of CO² per capita 22.11.2013 XXX Seite 6
  7. 7. The water, energy and food security nexus Source: Stockholm Environment Institute 22.11.2013 XXX Seite 7
  8. 8. Tunisia‟s National Climate Change Strategy (SNCC) - Scenario analysis • • • Scenario I favors economic growth in a context of weak global climate governance. Scenario II focuses on poverty reduction and social and spatial equality, as a response to the revolution. Scenario III assumes that Tunisia adapts its economic and social development to to a context of strong global climate governance S1 Economic Growth S2 S3 Social Cohesion Ecological Ambition Source: Stratégie Nationale sur le Changement Climatique en Tunisie (SNCC) 22.11.2013 XXX Seite 8
  9. 9. A Strategic Vision for Tunisia‟s Future: A synthesis of 3 Scenarios • Social and economic development in the short term with some safeguards (e.g. ressource control) to guarantee ecological development in the medium term • Objective of reducing CO2 intensity by more than 40% until 2030 and stabilize emissions by 2050 • Key indicators for Tunisia‟s strategic vision of the future (GDP, CO2 intensity and CO2 emissions) as a basis of 100 A proactive adaptation policy largely determined by international aid (e.g. Green Climate Fund) 22.11.2013 Source: Stratégie Nationale sur le Changement Climatique en Tunisie (SNCC) XXX Seite 9
  10. 10. NAMA Renewable Energy • Tunisian Solar Plan aims at achieving 20% renewable energy in 2020 and 30% in 2030 • Tunisia suffers from a structural energy deficit; 10% of its state budget is spent on energy subsidies; consumption of electricity is steadily increasing Expected Reduction Impact and Types of Mitigation Measures Co-benefits PV Cells, Wind parcs and CSP will generate energy savings from 2013-2030 of around 13300 ktep. • 58% emanate from wind energy, 24% from PV • Installed wind parcs will reduce CO2 emissions by 32 MtCO2 by 2030 • • 22.11.2013 • • XXX Energy security Green Jobs: 7700 during construction; 2600 maintanance (cumulated , conservative assumption of no local manufacturing) Economic gains from energy savings of 11Bi € (2013-2030) Infrastructure: Improvement of national electricity grid Seite 10
  11. 11. NAMA cement sector • With 6.4 m tCO² in 2012 and carbon intensity of 0.810 tCO2/t, cement is the most emission intensive industrial sector in Tunisia and accounts for 10% of Tunisian GHG Emissions Expected Reduction Impact and Types of Mitigation Measures Co-benefits Over 8 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (MtCO2) from 2014-2020, achieved by … • 1. 2. 3. 4. • • • Energy efficiency measures: 1.7 MtCO2 Renewable Energy (wind): 2.5 MtCO2 Reduction of clinker/cement ratio: 1.2 MtCO2 Co-processing (use of waste as fuel): 2.6 MtCO2 22.11.2013 XXX Reduces overall energy consumption and increases RE production-> energy security Relieves state budget for subsidies increases the sector„s competitiveness Improves waste management Seite 11
  12. 12. NAMA Agriculture Others 1% Manure Management 7% • Agriculture represents 16% of Tunisian GDP, 20% of employment and is presonsible for 20% of national emissions (Forestry: 13%) Enteric Fermentation 29% Agricultural Soils 63% Expected Reduction Impact and Types of Mitigation Measures Co-benefits Mitigation potential of 2.4 MtCO², including: 1. Nitrous-Oxide (N²O): Improved fertilizer mangement and promotion of organic agriculture 2. Methane (CH4): Better livestock management through: improvement of enteric fermentation process of ruminants; and manure management 3. CO2: Improved Forest Management, reforestation, agroforestry, use of windbreakers and other antidesertification measures • GHG Emissions in Agriculture 22.11.2013 XXX • • Agricultural: Improved performance (better fertilizer management and soil fertility); Social: Jobs secured and created; rural poverty improved Environmental: positive impact on biodiversity, water quality, desertification and soil fertility -> more resilience to external chocks; less water and energy Seite 12
  13. 13. Implemented by As a federal enterprise, GIZ supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development. Published by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH Author(s) Anselm Duchrow, Ole Ohlhoff Photo credits © GIZ/….. Registered offices, Bonn and Eschborn, Germany Layout Ole Ohlhoff “Name of Project or Programme here” “Address of Programme here” T +49 61 96 79-0 F +49 61 96 79-1115 In cooperation with Logo of cooperation partner here E I 22.11.2013 Responsible Anselm Duchrow XXX Seite 13