Demography Brazil & Comparison Case study – HIV Botswana & Brazil
Population facts <ul><li>2000 – pop 169mn 2020 estimate 211mn. </li></ul><ul><li>6th most populous country in the world. </li></ul><ul><li>1996 – Contained 2.7% world’s pop. </li></ul><ul><li>1950s growth rate was 3% due to falling DR & high BR. Today only 1.5% </li></ul><ul><li>1980-90 % of 0-14yrs fell from 38% to 34% </li></ul><ul><li>70% of the population is under 30yrs (Transition Trap) </li></ul><ul><li>In the same period the % of elderly rose 4 – 4.2% </li></ul>
More facts <ul><li>Average fertility 2 children (2000). Estimate for 2021 – 1.8, which is below replacement levels. </li></ul><ul><li>Life expectancy 1940 – 42yrs, 1970 – 52yrs, Today 71yrs. </li></ul><ul><li>BR 1960 42/1000 Today 16/1000 </li></ul><ul><li>High infant mortality rate 30/1000 </li></ul><ul><li>which is due to poor prenatal care, poor family planning & high number of abortions. </li></ul>
Why did changes start to take place after 1950s?
D.T.M – Stage 3 <ul><li>Brazil reached Stage 3 between 1960-7. </li></ul><ul><li>At this stage BR should begin to decrease rapidly. </li></ul><ul><li>DR – Slow decrease. </li></ul><ul><li>Natural increase – slow increase. </li></ul><ul><li>Longevity increase & infant mortality should decrease, but the latter hasn’t happened in Brazil. </li></ul><ul><li>Education, sanitation, health, housing & food should improve. These haven’t all happened in Brazil. </li></ul>
Health Facts <ul><li>Spending on health 7.4% GDP. This is not enough and is unevenly spread as cities receive more spending and a lot of money goes to sophisticated treatments for the rich. </li></ul><ul><li>80% of people who require treatment in hospital are ill as a result of poor sanitation & a lack of clean water. A quarter of the population doesn't’ have access to clean water. </li></ul><ul><li>13% of under 5s are malnourished, the NE being the worst area. </li></ul><ul><li>Infectious tropical diseases reflect poor sanitary conditions. </li></ul><ul><li>Poor antenatal care for women – high infant mortality. </li></ul>
HIV: Brazil & Botswana $519mn $188bn Debt Agri – 2.4% Indust – 4.6% Services – 50% Agri -8% Industry – 40% Services – 66% Industry $10,500 $8,400 GDP per capita PPP 4.5% 2.4% GDP growth rate 79% 86% Literacy 37.3% 0.7% HIV rate -0.04% 1.04% Pop growth rate 2.7 1.9 Fertility Rate 33yrs 71yrs Life expectancy 29 6 DR 23 16 BR 0-14 = 38% 15-64 = 58% 65+ = 3.8% 0-14 =25% 15-64 =68% 65+ = 6% Population Botswana Brazil
Economy - Botswana <ul><li>In Botswana has maintained one of the world's highest economic growth rates since independence in 1966. Through fiscal discipline and sound management, Botswana has transformed itself from one of the poorest countries in the world to a middle-income country with a per capita GDP of $10,000 in 2005. Two major investment services rank Botswana as the best credit risk in Africa. Diamond mining has fuelled much of the expansion and currently accounts for more than one-third of GDP and for 70-80% of export earnings. Tourism, financial services, subsistence farming, and cattle raising are other key sectors. HIV/AIDS infection rates are the second highest in the world and threaten Botswana's impressive economic gains. </li></ul>
Almost 39 million people around the world are living with HIV – slightly more than the population of Poland. Nearly two-thirds of them live in Sub-Saharan Africa. The global HIV/Aids epidemic killed 2.8 million people in 2005.
Botswana faces ‘extinction’ if the efforts to control are not effective The countries hit hardest by Aids, Zimbabwe and Botswana, have seen life-expectancy drop by nearly half in 15 years, when it should have been rising. Children born in 2000 in Botswana, where nearly 39% of the population are HIV positive, will live, on average, to just 39.
The light bars show how Botswana’s population structure is expected to look in 2020, taking the country's HIV epidemic into account. The dark bars show how it would otherwise look. The loss of a huge swathe of work-age adults will hit families and the economy alike.
At least 15 million children worldwide have lost one or both parents to Aids – most of them in sub-Saharan Africa. The total is expected to be close to 25 million by 2010. Many orphans alive today will themselves die of Aids. Many of those who survive will have to care for younger siblings.
At least half the economies in sub-Saharan Africa have shrunk because of HIV. As workers die, their skills and knowledge are lost. Productivity drops while welfare costs for the sick and orphaned spiral. The proportion of the workforces of South Africa and Mozambique lost to Aids is expected to more than double between 2005 and 2020.
Why has Brazil been so successful? <ul><li>But Brazil's HIV prevalence rate is 0.7% </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil developed an internationally renowned Aids programme, which today provides free treatment to about 125,000 people, more than any other country in the developing world. A further 300,000 people are constantly having their HIV levels monitored. </li></ul><ul><li>According to UNAids, one third of people with HIV in developing countries who receive satisfactory treatment live in Brazil. </li></ul><ul><li>The number of deaths from the disease has dropped by 80% in recent years in Brazil. The government thinks that is a significant achievement, considering that the World Bank predicted in 1992, that, by 2002, 1.2 million Brazilians would be HIV positive. </li></ul><ul><li>For UNAids, the success of the Brazilian programme is due to investment in prevention campaigns (among young people and sex professionals, in particular); the production of generic antiretroviral drugs and also the mobilisation of civilians in pressuring the government to adopt new policies, as well as working with the public sector. </li></ul>
Managment <ul><li>Recent research showed that about 900 NGOs work with the Aids programme in Brazil. The NGOs also work in the favelas, or slums, teaching mainly youngsters how to use a condom and also promoting events like plays where the children act as "information spreaders" - using the plays to teach the other children in their community. </li></ul><ul><li>Prevention campaigns are mainly produced by the government, using TV, newspapers, radios and the local community centres (as local public clinics) to spread the message. </li></ul><ul><li>A villa outside Sao Paulo has been turned into a set for a pornographic movie by the Brazilian company, Sexxxy videos. But the company is also the latest recruit in the fight against Aids. These films, condoms are standard props. The company is also shooting a special message about Aids to put at the start of each of its videos - something that the Brazilian congress will soon make compulsory for all adult movies. </li></ul><ul><li>Brazil says it plans to distribute a billion free condoms next year as part of its fight against HIV and Aids. The country's Health Minister, Saraiva Felipe, said the programme would be helped by the construction of a state-run condom factory. </li></ul>
How is Brazil helping Botswana? <ul><li>Brazilian journalists also produce a TV programme in Botswana with documentaries and live discussions on the subject, and the country has also announced that it will set up a factory in Mozambique to produce cheaper anti-retroviral drugs. </li></ul>