06 Samuel Carrara Feem / Energy: Scenario and Challenges

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Presentation from 30/11-2/12/2012 Roma Cleanweb Hackathon, see http://italy.cleanweb.co

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06 Samuel Carrara Feem / Energy: Scenario and Challenges

  1. 1. Energy: scenario and challengesSamuel Carrara, PhDFondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)Cleanweb world tour – Roma HackathonNovember 30th – December 2nd, 2012Università degli studi Roma Tre, Rome, Italy
  2. 2. Why is energy so important? 6 bn 1 bn ↑ = Source: IAC (2007)1/8
  3. 3. Global primary energy demand and supply 81% (2011) Source: WEO (2008)2/8
  4. 4. The energy problem Growing energy demand (fossils) • Energy security • Sustainability & Climate Change3/8
  5. 5. Proven oil reserves (2011) 1653 Billion barrels (+ 10% compared to 2001) 31 Billion barrels (+ 12% compared to 2001) Source: BP review (2012)4/8
  6. 6. Fossil fuels availability Source: WEO (2012) “The Stone Age didn’t end because of a shortage of stones: the oil age wont end because of a shortage of oil.” (Sheik Yemani, Saudi Oil Minister, 1973)5/8
  7. 7. Sustainability & Climate Change CO2 Pre-industrial levels: 280 ppm Current levels (2005): 380 ppm Fossil Fuel Concentration increase 8,000 years before industrialization: 20 ppm Burning Concentration increase since 1750: 100 ppm 30 Billion tons 15 billion tons added Go in every year 3000 billion tons CO 800 ppm 435 ppme 2 385 billion tons carbon The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again. The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again. Courtesy of Rob Socolow The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again. The image cannot be display ed. Your computer may not hav e enough memory to open the image, or the image may hav e been corrupted. Restart y our computer, and then open the file again. If the red x still appears, y ou may hav e to delete the image and then insert it again.Since 1750 anthropogenic CO2emissions have come from: Ocean Land Biosphere (net)2/3 fossil fuels1/3 land use change ≈8 + ≈7 = 15 billion tons Go out 6/8
  8. 8. Emissions / temperature correlation Source: Reale (2007) “Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations” (IPCC, 2007)7/8
  9. 9. Temperature increase projections Source: Connor (2009)8/8

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