BOFIT Jouko Rautava The Economic Situation in China 11.2.2016

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Presented at How to Increase Business in China Beautiful Beijing Business Seminar 11.02.2016

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BOFIT Jouko Rautava The Economic Situation in China 11.2.2016

  1. 1. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland UnrestrictedJouko   Rautava 111.2.2016 Jouko  Rautava,  Advisor • Expert on  Chinese and  Russian   economies and  economic policy.    
  2. 2. Unrestricted Bank of Finland The  Economic  Situation   in  China Reforms,  structural  change   and  slower  growth   Jouko Rautava 211.2.2016 Finpro Helsinki
  3. 3. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland Unrestricted Stock  market  turbulence  with   Chinese  characteristics   Jouko   Rautava 311.2.2016 Source:  Macrobond
  4. 4. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland Unrestricted More  flexibility  to  forex  policy Jouko   Rautava 411.2.2016 Juan  against  dollar   NEER  and  REER Sources:  Reuters,  BIS Aug.11
  5. 5. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland Unrestricted Yuan  spearheads  reform  policy Jouko   Rautava 511.2.2016 Share  of  international  payments,  % Reforms  in  2015 Source:  Swift -­ Deposit  insurance -­ Liberalization  of  interest  rates -­ Capital  account  liberalization  measures -­ Change  of  exchange  rate  mechanism -­ SDR -­ … -­ Two-­child  policy   -­ SEO  reform  (though  still  only  plans) -­ Pricing  reforms  (e.g.  gas) -­ Military  reform -­ …
  6. 6. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland Unrestricted Structural  change  proceeds:  demand Jouko   Rautava 611.2.2016 Sources:  CEIC,  Macrobond
  7. 7. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland Unrestricted Structural  change  proceeds:  supply Jouko   Rautava 711.2.2016 Source:  Macrobond
  8. 8. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland Unrestricted Electricity  consumption,  GDP  growth   and  structural  change? Jouko   Rautava 811.2.2016 Source:  Macrobond
  9. 9. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland Unrestricted No  reason  to  understate  risks Domestic  debt,  %  of  GDP Jouko   Rautava 911.2.2016 Sources:  Macrobond,  BOFIT
  10. 10. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland Unrestricted Slower  is  better,   disturbances  part  of  development Jouko   Rautava 1011.2.2016 Sources:  Macrobond,  BOFIT 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 2000 2005 2010 2015 GDP  growth,  %  yoy BOFIT  forecast Sources:  NBSC,  BOFIT. 24.9.2015 bofbulletin.fi China's  GDP  growth  and  BOFIT  forecast  for  2015–2017
  11. 11. Suomen   Pankki   – Finlands Bank   – Bank   of  Finland Unrestricted Asia  on  the  rise -­ share  of  global  output Jouko   Rautava 1111.2.2016 Sources:  Maddison,  WEO

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