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The future-of-personal-computing

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The future-of-personal-computing

  1. 1. Where we have been and where we are going Vic Laurie http://vlaurie.com
  2. 2. Making predictions is hard - especially about the future Attributed to many sources including Niels Bohr and Yogi Berra
  3. 3.  A lot of discussion goes on about ―what is a PC?‖  A PC is a computing device used by normal, average people  Not a mainframe or a server or a business machine  Personal computing is what you do with a PC  Computing devices are inextricably intertwined in modern life
  4. 4.  Central role of hardware  PCs became possible only with the invention of solid state components and integrated circuits  Ever cheaper, smaller, and faster components  Internet  Fast, world-wide connections  Information revolution  Cloud computing  Software - less of a driver  Word 95 compared to Word 2013  Sound and graphics  Bloatware  The rise of the app
  5. 5. 7 million+ volumes
  6. 6.  One guess is 2.5 petabytes (2500 GB)
  7. 7.  Point and click  Mouse  Keyboard  Graphical User Interface (GUI)  Douglas Englebart at Stanford Research Institute (1963)  In 1968, Englebart demonstrated text editing, video conferencing, hypertext and windowing  Not until the late 1980’s did the GUI and mouse become common
  8. 8.  The new construct of mobility  Anytime-anywhere-computing  Breaking away from the iron grip of Windows  Simpler consumer devices  Replacement of the point-and-click paradigm  New interfaces  The conversion of the Internet into a social place – a worldwide community  ―Big data‖ –an emergent phenomenon  Loss of privacy  Surprising new kinds of information
  9. 9.  Apple iPhone and iPad  A watershed event  The consumer unchained from Wintel  Google Android systems  Flexible and versatile operating system  Open source  Widespread availability of broadband Internet  Spread of high-speed cellular networks  Rise of cloud computing
  10. 10. End of boxed software Subscription model  Software as a service (SaaS) Proprietary stores Aggregators Rise of the ―app‖
  11. 11.  Some overlap with the idea of a ―program‖  Typically smaller with limited purpose  Frequently use the Internet for some function  Skip the browser  Run full-screen without conventional menus
  12. 12. Future Way to Read News?
  13. 13.  Touch  Voice  Siri  Gesture  Eye tracking  Thought
  14. 14.  Leap Motion
  15. 15.  What is new in Windows 8.1?  More emphasis on the cloud – SkyDrive embedded  Some interface changes  More frequent upgrades  What will Windows 9 be like?  More mobile  More cloud  Desktop gone?
  16. 16.  New materials  Miniaturization and low power devices  Wearable computing  Smart watches  Google glass  Internet of things  75 billion devices connected by 2020 - Cisco  Medical devices
  17. 17.  Line between personal computing and life activities is blurred and disappearing  Computing devices present in a multitude of everyday activities  Smart appliances  Automobile software  Future cars will be networked, personalized, and connected to the cloud … and collecting personal data about our preferences and our whereabouts —Dan Tynan at PCWorld
  18. 18. Users choose a recipe and the appliance will know how to make it
  19. 19.  New security devices  Fingerprint, retinal, face recognition  Merging of PC and TV  Interactive shopping  Personal assistants  Inexpensive basic computer kits  Raspberry Pi
  20. 20.  3-D printing  Foldable displays  OLED (organic light-emitting diode)  Parallel processing  Graphical processors (GPU)  Semantic search  Neural networks and AI  Biological materials for PC components  3-D displays  Robots
  21. 21.  Instead of bits, use ―quantum states‖ (qubits)  Very difficult technical problems but technology is advancing rapidly  Would increase computing power enormously  Small commercial device already exists (D- Wave)
  22. 22.  The Microsoft model of one operating system everywhere and for everything is broken  Different devices for different purposes  Consumers and home PC users no longer have to use the same kind of computers suitable to business and big organizations
  23. 23.  Light-weight and portable  Long battery life  Most applications and files in the cloud  Updates automatic and silent  Security managed in the background  Automatic backups  Touch, voice, and gesture interface  On-screen keypad with external keyboard optional
  24. 24.  Will security get better?  Is there any privacy?  Is the cloud secure enough?  Is the cloud reliable?
  25. 25.  Social  Economic  Political  Societal attitudes, politics, and vested economic interests often slow or even block the application of new ideas and discoveries.
  26. 26.  Some basic facts about how to use computers taught to all schoolchildren  Security  Some basic facts about how technology works as part of school curriculum  Teach how to evaluate information
  27. 27.  We can say for sure - Things we never thought of will come along  There will be no end of surprises  But this presentation is at The End

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