State of Online Media in South Africa, Arthur Goldstuck, Worldwideworx

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State of Online Media in South Africa, Arthur Goldstuck, Worldwideworx

  1. 1. State of Online Media in SA By Arthur Goldstuck 14 August 2008
  2. 2. About World Wide Worx <ul><li>Research: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>All stats in this presentation from our primary research into IT and telecoms, Internet, mobile technologies, technology in business strategy </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Key projects: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Internet Access in SA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital media in SA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital banking in SA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Online Retail in SA </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Mobility – consumers, corporates, SMEs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>SME Survey: 5 000 respondents annually </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. Reality check: Internet user base <ul><li>2000: 2 416 000 (32% growth) </li></ul><ul><li>2001: 2 886 000 (20%) </li></ul><ul><li>2002: 3 098 000 (7%) </li></ul><ul><li>2003: 3 283 000 (6%) </li></ul><ul><li>2004: 3.5m (6%) </li></ul><ul><li>2005: 3.6m (3%) </li></ul><ul><li>2006: 3.75m (3%) </li></ul><ul><li>2007: 3.96m (6%) </li></ul><ul><li>2008: 4.4m (8%) </li></ul>
  4. 4. New Reality: The experience curve <ul><li>Internet users with 5 years experience: </li></ul><ul><li>2001: 354 700 </li></ul><ul><li>2002: 696 620 (96% growth) </li></ul><ul><li>2003: 1 266 235 (81%) </li></ul><ul><li>2004: 1 820 000 (44%) </li></ul><ul><li>2005: 2 416 000 (32%) </li></ul><ul><li>2006: 2 886 000 (20%) </li></ul><ul><li>2007: 3 098 000 (7%) </li></ul><ul><li>2008: 3 28m (6%) </li></ul><ul><li>2009: 3.5m (6%) </li></ul>
  5. 5. Sins of the past Captured 24 November 2003
  6. 6. Captured 13 July 2004
  7. 7. Captured 27 December 2004
  8. 8. Reality check: Online retail in SA <ul><li>2000: R82-million </li></ul><ul><li>2001: R162-million </li></ul><ul><li>2002: R252-million (55%) </li></ul><ul><li>2003: R350m (40%) </li></ul><ul><li>2004: R470m (33%) </li></ul><ul><li>2005: R540m (20%) </li></ul><ul><li>2006: R688m (30%) </li></ul><ul><li>2007: R928m (35%) </li></ul><ul><li>2008: R1,2-bn + </li></ul>
  9. 9. New Reality: The Experience Curve World Wide Worx Internet users in South Africa, 2008 Online banking customers Online retail customers Broadband emerges 6 Years on the Internet: The Experience Curve
  10. 10. When mental bandwidth runs out Captured 27 September 2006
  11. 11. Source, Internet Access in SA 2007
  12. 12. Source: Internet Access in SA 2007
  13. 13. Source: Internet Access in SA 2007
  14. 14. Online Media in SA survey <ul><li>First conducted in 2006 </li></ul><ul><li>2008 study now under way </li></ul><ul><li>With the cooperation and endorsement of the Online Publishers Association </li></ul><ul><li>But open to all online publishers </li></ul><ul><li>Early indications suggest massive growth </li></ul><ul><li>Is the dam breaking? </li></ul>
  15. 15. 13 August 2008
  16. 16. 13 August 2008
  17. 17. 13 August 2008
  18. 18. Ash can finally afford that drink 13 August 2008
  19. 19. Early indicators from new study <ul><li>The 2003-6 data is based on 2006 study </li></ul><ul><li>The trend lines for 2007-2010 are still an educated guess </li></ul><ul><li>Based on numbers provided informally by key players </li></ul><ul><li>Full data available in late September </li></ul>
  20. 23. Key trends predicted in 2006 <ul><li>The emergence of RSS (“really simple syndication”, a relatively new standard delivery protocol for news feeds). </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast to rise from 28% in 2006 to no less than 72% in 2008, making it the new killer application of content delivery </li></ul><ul><li>Blogs to rise from 24% in 2006 to 56% in 2008 </li></ul>
  21. 24. The next revolution <ul><li>In 2009, the Seacom undersea cable will increase international bandwidth 40-fold </li></ul><ul><li>In 2010, this will treble again </li></ul><ul><li>Bandwidth from luxury to commodity </li></ul><ul><li>For media, this opens a new world of possibility, expansion and interaction </li></ul><ul><li>Advertising industry has no choice: it must be there, reboots and all </li></ul>
  22. 25. The big picture Courtesy Telegeography
  23. 26. The small picture Courtesy Telegeography
  24. 27. The old picture 1901 Eastern Telegraph Company System Map
  25. 28. The next picture? Courtesy Steve Song, Many Possibilities “ Sub-saharan Africa Undersea Cables in 2010 – maybe”
  26. 29. Thank you <ul><li>Arthur Goldstuck (011) 7827003 </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] </li></ul><ul><li>www.worldwideworx.com </li></ul><ul><li>Gadget: </li></ul><ul><li>www.gadget.co.za </li></ul><ul><li>Urban legends blog: </li></ul><ul><li>thoselegends.blogspot.com </li></ul><ul><li>Business strategy blog </li></ul><ul><li>www.thebigchange.com </li></ul>

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